812FB

On 9/27/2022 at 10:20 AM, 812FB said:

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

School	Sagarin	Calpreps	Massey	Average Ranking
Reitz	9	22	33	21.3
Carroll	50	15	12	25.6
Snider	55	27	26	36
Mater Dei	23	65	55	47.6
North Side	81	37	40	52.6
Castle	31	69	58	52.6
Vincennes	21	61	82	54.6
Ev. North	34	78	86	66
Memorial	54	87	60	67
Dwenger	124	63	43	76.6
Jasper	67	102	79	82.6
Homestead	118	79	54	83.6
Luers	140	91	64	98.3
Harrison	108	149	142	133
Wayne	203	141	112	152
Concordia	228	165	106	166.3
Bosse	149	184	179	170.6
Central	155	206	174	178.3
Northrop	248	195	135	192.6
South Side	254	227	192	224.3

Correction on this list. It looks like Mater Dei and Vincennes should be switched with the Sagarin ranking. I must have fat fingered it or something. My apologies. Regardless, I've seen both teams play down here and neither of them probably don't match up well with a 25 ranked Penn who's only losses were to Cathedral and St. X (Cincy, OH). I would even venture to say Carroll and Snider on this list would probably give the entire SIAC a run for their money.

12 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Closed conferences should be treated differently.  Case in point, a closed conference of the mega football schools (Cathedral, Center Grove, etc) should not have the same strength of schedule as a closed conference of 1a schools.  Sagarin is probably using some aspect of last years playoff results to weight the conferences.  The SAC did not have as much playoff success in 2021 as in 2020.  The SIAC did better in 2021 then in 2020.  The "switching" of their conference strength is probably related to playoff performance.  No it is not perfect but unfortunately the only way to connect the conferences in season is to use something from last year to compare them.

The fact it was reversed is explained by the difference in playoff performance changing from 2020 to 2021

A lot of folk, including myself, enjoy computer rating systems (CRS). For me, it's more of a statistical data driven aspect thing that I enjoy about it.

Switching gears here, if seeding becomes a reality instead of a desire for us fans I have a feeling this currently flawed CRS will be what is used to determine the seedings. I say that because Sagarin is a Hoosier. I understand seeding might just be pipe dream but I also never thought in a million years we would see the success factor rule. 

Curious, does anyone know if other states use a CRS to determine playoffs and/or seeding?  

I really appreciate that this thread was created and agree that there's something going on with Sagarin's algorithm. Last week I posted about what I call the Sagarin SIAC Glitch. It appears there's a weighted bias to the SIAC in his algorithm compared to the SAC. And it really makes it difficult for data guys like myself to evaluate. 😉 But I digress. 

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

I've highlighted some numbers that jump out to me. The discrepancy of Carroll and Snider is extreme and tells me that the formula/algorithm is either flawed or bias. Having been to a lot of the games in the SIAC area I can say with confidence that I don't think Vincennes is a top 21 school in the entire state. 

The 812FB Top 20 rankings is my opinion and based off not only the eye test but the averages of Sagarin, Calpreps and Massey ranking systems. 

1. East Central
2. Evansville Reitz
3. Bloomington South
4. Gibson Southern
5. Linton-Stockton
6. Evansville Memorial
7. Owen Valley
8. Evansville Mater Dei
9. Lawrenceburg
10. Castle
11. Vincennes
12. Columbus North
13. Southridge
14. Terre Haute South
15. Evansville North
16. North Decatur
17. Jasper
18. Boonville
19. Bloomington North
20. Northview

HM: Columbus East, South Dearborn, Tecumseh, Sullivan, Charlestown

Week 7 Top 20 & HM Matchups
#2 Evansville Reitz at #6 Evansville Memorial
#11 Columbus North at #3 Bloomington South
#17 Jasper at #10 Castle
#15 Evansville North at #11 Vincennes
#19 Bloomington North at Columbus East


 

To my knowledge, the three high school computer ranking systems widely used are Sagarin, Calpreps and Massey. I thought it would be interesting to point out how each system ranked 812FB this week. I'll put down the top 20ish or so to demonstrate the stark contrast between the three. 

Since the SIAC became a closed conference schedule I have noticed Sagarin might have a algorithm bias to the conference. I understand Sagarin doesn't include out of state schools in the code so I'm wondering if that is the reason for the apparent bias? If you take a look at a school like Gibson Southern or Southridge you'll see the assumed bias I'm pointing out. The other system I find interesting is Calpreps. It looks like that system might have the opposite effect of Sagarin with the SIAC. And Massey claims that his system doesn't do any weighting of conferences, but that might be applied to just college only. Who knows. Regardless the differences, the SIAC closed conference schedule looks to be causing a 'glitch' with the code to these ranking systems. And so that begs the question....

In your opinion, which of these systems is the most accurate? 

The 812FB Top 20 rankings is my opinion and based off not only the eye test but the averages of Sagarin, Calpreps and Massey ranking systems.

1. East Central
2. Evansville Reitz
3. Bloomington South
4. Gibson Southern
5. Linton-Stockton
6. Castle
7. Columbus North
8. Vincennes
9. Lawrenceburg
10. Evansville Memorial
11. Owen Valley
12. Evansville North
13. Evansville Mater Dei
14. Terre Haute South
15. Southridge
16. Columbus East
17. Northview
18. South Dearborn
19. North Decatur
20. Jasper

HM: Bloomington North, Boonville, Sullivan, North Posey, Heritage Hills

Week 6 Top 20 & HM Matchups
#1 East Central at #18 South Dearborn
#6 Castle at #2 Evansville Reitz
#4 Gibson Southern at Heritage Hills
#13 Evansville Mater Dei at #12 Evansville North
#11 Owen Valley at Sullivan
#17 Northview at #14 Terre Haute South

The 812FB Top 20 ranking is my opinion and based off not only the eye test but the averages of Sagarin, Calpreps and Massey ranking systems.  

1. East Central
2. Evansville Reitz 
3. Gibson Southern
4. Columbus North 
5. Bloomington South 
6. Linton-Stockton 
7. Vincennes Lincoln
8. Castle 
9. Northview 
10. Lawrenceburg 
11. Terre Haute South 
12. Southridge 
13. Evansville North 
14. Evansville Memorial
15. Owen Valley 
16. Evansville Mater Dei 
17. Jasper
18. Columbus East 
19. Charlestown 
20. South Dearborn 

HM: Heritage Hills, Boonville, Mt. Vernon, North Posey, Terre Haute North

Week 5 Top 20 & HM Matchups 
#3 Gibson Southern at #12 Southridge
#6 Linton-Stockton at Boonville
#5 Bloomington South at #11 Terre Haute South
#7 Vincennes Lincoln at #8 Castle 
#9 Northview at #15 Owen Valley