Just a dad

Calpreps Top5 4A schools in Indiana: 1. Bishop Chatard 41.7 2. East Noble 41.3 3. New Palestine 40.4 4. Roncalli 35.8 5. Martinsville 31.2

@temptation I would say Center Grove and Decatur Central (both top 550 teams nationally according to calpreps) were very good teams in 2018 and they handled them. 2019 they played Cathedral, Center Grove and Valpo. All top 400 teams nationally, again according to calpreps. I’d say both of those teams were challenged, took punches and were superior to some really high quality teams. This year their toughest game has been against Greenfield Central who is ranked 2812 nationally. Their opponents combined records are 57-61 Chatard has lost to Cathedral (163) and Elder (429). They have beaten Columbus North (739), Roncalli twice (805) and Brebeuff (1405). The combined records of their opponents this year is 75-47-1 There is an enormous difference between 2018/2019 New Pal and 2024 New Pal. 2019 NP opponents were 91-71. 2018 NP opponents were 83-75. I just don’t see how you can compare their 2024 team to either of those earlier teams. I’m not convinced that New Pal isn’t the underdog in this game

For my money I want to see which kids perform when the pressure ramps up. Chatard has 5 wins (and 2 losses) against teams that are better than anyone New Pal has played all season. In a mistake free game for both teams, with good to great coaching staffs and athletic kids on both sides, the scales have to tilt towards the team that has had to make plays late in the 4th quarter of a physical game. Sometimes a little doubt creeping into a kids mind can cause a critical mistake. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan til they get punched in the face. Roncalli punched Chatard in the face Friday night. In fact, both teams traded punches til the final whistle. Has New Pal been punched? Their schedule doesn’t say so. 28-17 Chatard

Have New Pal’s starters played a meaningful minute of football in the second half of any of their games? How many of their starters play both ways?

Looks like Danville got the toughest draw out of the big 4. Probably the toughest path to LOS. Good luck to them (in the first two weeks at least). can anyone provide any insight into their team this year?

@BTF I intentionally never mentioned any specific team. To assume any one of them is my “beloved” team is bold, Cotton. To support my initial point, this year might be one of those years where the top 3A team (Reitz) looks to be equal to or better than the top rated 5A team.

Probably only Center Grove. But you only needed to go to team #8 (Snider) to find a lower SoS than EC had.

Maybe so. But postseason success against your class doesn’t mean you would be good against higher classes. We all see what 5A looks like in Indiana most years. I’ve seen a few years where the 5A winner would struggle vs the 3A winner. The 4th best 4A team this year could probably make the 5A championship game this year and would likely win

The biggest flaw with Sagarin is that they don’t take into account games played against out-of-state opponents. That can be huge for SoS for some of these schools. I constantly go back to Calpreps because they rank every team in the nation based on the same metrics. Equal playing field. Maxpreps uses them for their rankings. Just looking at the state Top 25 for Indiana is enlightening because SoS is glaring. It isn’t just wins and loses but also quality of those opponents as well as scoring differential. Here is a link to the current All-State rankings. https://calpreps.com/2024/ratings/Indiana_all.htm 16 of the Top 17 are 6A. Reitz is 18 New Pal is 19. Look at their SoS It’s not even comparable. You actually have to go to team 33 to find a SoS lower than either of those two As I have said many times, head to head matters the most Common opponent is also significant. Reitz best win is against a team ranked 1617 in the nation NP is against 2927. Neither of them would stay on the field with a top 10 6A team

According to Calpreps, New Pal has the second weakest strength of schedule in the Top 25. Come playoff time that will hurt them. Playing meaningful 4th quarter minutes prepares a team for pressure situations.

New Pal has played exactly one (1) team ranked in the Top 2000 in the nation (Decatur Central) and they tied them. BCHS, Martinsville, Roncalli and Brebeuf have all have higher quality wins. Head to head and common opponents (without head to head) are the best comparison tools. Martinsville beat DC by one point. Objectively, Martinsville, DC and New Pal are all equal. New Pal probably belongs closer to 17.

Sagarin doesn’t take into account out-of-state games. Calpreps.com does.

That RB is going to be a problem for the next few years. Now go win out and help our strength of schedule. No shame in losing to a 6A state champ.

How is Cathedral’s QB? I know they have tall receivers (and Chatard has short DB’s). It seemed like last year Chatard really beat up O’Neil in the second half and he didn't enjoy that.It led to him making a few poor and costly choices. Will Cathedral’s QB have the composure to stand and deliver or does it even matter with their running game?

I’d be willing to bet that most kids are referring to creatine and weight gainers. When asking kids if they use anything to enhance their appearance that leaves a lot to interpretation. “12% of boys reported using products to enhance appearance, muscle mass or strength” vs “12% of boys reported using steroids” would have been more in line with the clickbait headline. The author clearly doesn’t know the difference. And he refers to “one study” for his data set. A quick peek at his LinkedIn says he has “research experience”. This article might be the full extent of that experience. This is the actual cited reference from the article “According to a 2016 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, the prevalence of PED use among high school athletes in the United States ranged from 2.7% to 4.0%, depending on the specific sport.6 Another study found that 8% of girls and 12% of boys used products to improve appearance, muscle mass, or strength, and 3.3% of high school students admitted to using steroids.7 “3.3% of high school athletes admitted to using steroids” is the actual number. This is the cited study: Dandoy C, Gereige RS. Performance-enhancing drugs. Pediatr Rev. Jun 2012;33(6):265-71; quiz 271-2. doi:10.1542/pir.33-6-265 It’s from 2012. Not sure that it qualifies as “still a major issue”. Why did I waste my time going down this rabbit hole? I must be bored out of my skull this morning.