How does 3A stack up against 4A - A Sagarin Analysis

[Titan32]

CLASS	STATE	CLASS	TEAM	OVERALL	SCHEDULE		RECENT		PREDICTOR
RANK	RANK			RATING	STRENGTH RANK		RATING   RANK		RATING   RANK
1	12	4A	Indianapolis Chatard	86.99	70.66	25	87.15	21	86.3	13
1	14	3A	Gibson Southern	86.97	61.84	62	91.05	12	84.03	25
2	16	4A	Heritage Hills	85.99	50.85	148	88.58	17	87.08	11
3	24	4A	Indianapolis Roncalli	83.84	71.96	21	91.48	11	82.68	27
4	27	4A	Pendleton Heights	82.34	58.28	97	85.14	26	81.11	29
2	28	3A	Cascade	81.72	39.79	219	78.69	37	83.08	26
3	30	3A	Lawrenceburg	81.44	47.24	173	88.6	16	81.19	28
5	31	4A	Yorktown	80.18	55.71	117	81.49	32	79.52	31
6	32	4A	Mishawaka	80.07	63.33	58	87.23	20	76.86	38
7	33	4A	East Noble	79.85	53.93	130	82.11	30	76.74	39
4	34	3A	Knox	79.37	52.36	141	74.89	41	79.51	32
5	35	3A	Evansville Memorial	78.49	55.13	119	76.83	40	75.76	42
8	39	4A	Fort Wayne Dwenger	77.38	69.8	29	79.6	35	75.95	41
6	42	3A	Tri-West	76.58	58.07	98	73.62	43	76.94	37
9	43	4A	Jasper	76.55	54.62	122	79.91	34	74.58	47
10	47	4A	Northview	74.08	41.23	213	70.68	54	75.11	44
11	48	4A	Lowell	73.94	58.04	99	69.74	58	73.42	51
7	53	3A	Tippecanoe Valley	72.08	60.01	78	69.82	57	73.4	52
12	56	4A	South Bend St. Joseph	71.45	49.53	155	68.37	65	69.53	65
13	58	4A	Hobart	70.84	57.98	100	65.32	71	72.09	54
14	59	4A	DeKalb	70.62	54.83	120	72.34	48	70.03	63
15	63	4A	Lebanon	69.82	60.11	76	63.1	76	69.6	64
16	66	4A	NorthWood	68.59	57.76	101	71.4	50	68.41	68
8	68	3A	West Noble	67.33	46.86	174	69.29	60	63.69	90
17	69	4A	Leo	67.02	50.83	149	64.53	73	64.99	85
9	70	3A	Hamilton Heights	66.78	66.35	44	67.11	68	66.11	79
10	72	3A	Indian Creek	66.43	62.54	61	56.2	102	69.53	66
18	76	4A	Bedford North Lawrence	65.31	51.75	143	57.6	96	67	75
11	77	3A	Griffith	65.27	37.08	242	61.41	81	65.48	81
19	80	4A	Danville	65	71.72	22	58.61	91	68.93	67
20	81	4A	Martinsville	64.67	70.66	24	60.89	83	66.24	78
12	83	3A	Western	64.55	58.68	92	55.47	109	66.33	77
13	86	3A	Mississinewa	64.1	36.68	244	54.95	111	63.56	93
21	88	4A	Evansville Reitz	63.79	63.6	57	57.47	97	64.47	88
22	89	4A	Mooresville	63.71	70.56	26	55.53	108	66.44	76
23	91	4A	Logansport	63.59	43.07	201	60.78	84	61.46	103
14	94	3A	Vincennes Lincoln	63.13	54.37	127	65.43	70	64.9	86
15	97	3A	Evansville Mater Dei	62.52	62.6	60	59.91	86	63.68	91
24	100	4A	Northridge	62.1	64.54	53	71.22	51	63.43	94
16	101	3A	Southridge	61.83	57.12	106	61.46	80	62.18	101
17	104	3A	Fort Wayne Luers	60.66	61.37	65	59.27	88	62.27	100
18	106	3A	Twin Lakes	60.37	39.47	221	59.17	89	59.49	111
19	108	3A	Franklin County	59.73	50.96	146	49.7	134	60.93	105
25	110	4A	Beech Grove	59.51	46.03	179	55.29	110	58.73	116
26	114	4A	Columbia City	58.7	57.38	104	53.26	113	59.18	113
20	118	3A	Guerin Catholic	57.64	69.55	30	52.06	121	57.02	124
27	121	4A	Muncie Central	57.43	54.43	125	50.46	130	58.02	119
28	122	4A	Huntington North	57.16	64.45	54	56.07	104	56.88	125
21	125	3A	Scottsburg	56.53	34.42	254	54.55	112	53.58	144
29	128	4A	Indianapolis Attucks	56.43	24.49	298	68.37	67	48.84	162
30	129	4A	Boonville	56.4	51.29	145	51.3	123	56.81	128
22	132	3A	West Lafayette	55.74	58.65	93	57.86	95	55.11	135
31	133	4A	Shelbyville	55.61	56.55	112	50.21	131	56.87	126
32	134	4A	Hanover Central	55.37	61.67	63	46.61	150	57.31	122
33	135	4A	Greenwood	55.35	66.52	42	49.35	140	56.85	127
34	139	4A	Brebeuf Jesuit	54.9	68.99	33	55.67	107	56.13	133
23	141	3A	Angola	54.59	59.48	84	47.44	146	54.86	138
35	143	4A	Greenfield-Central	54.15	63.73	56	49.61	136	54.74	141
24	144	3A	Delta	54.15	59.13	86	45.43	157	54.8	140
36	146	4A	New Castle	53.91	57.17	105	52.15	120	55.1	136
25	147	3A	Maconaquah	53.88	31.34	275	40.51	175	52.21	152
26	148	3A	Garrett	53.17	61.45	64	46.68	149	51.95	153
27	150	3A	Oak Hill	52.87	48.2	165	45.44	156	52.92	147
37	152	4A	Fort Wayne South	52.4	61.17	66	52.26	118	54.92	137
28	153	3A	Heritage	52.31	53.46	133	41.93	167	53	146
38	157	4A	Charlestown	51.66	46.2	178	45.33	158	47.15	173
39	161	4A	Washington	49.95	57.66	102	42.18	166	50.13	158
29	164	3A	Mount Vernon (Posey)	49.78	54.41	126	34.06	200	51.15	154
30	167	3A	Edgewood	49.34	34.39	255	40.94	172	48.9	161
40	168	4A	Plymouth	49.16	58.84	90	45.99	153	47.27	172
41	169	4A	South Bend Riley	49.16	48	169	46.86	148	48.11	168
31	170	3A	Lakeland	49.07	52.37	140	44.25	162	46.66	175
32	179	3A	Calumet	46.79	29.2	281	39.38	180	46.17	177
33	181	3A	Batesville	45.76	54.04	129	35.02	196	45.95	179
42	184	4A	New Prairie	44.99	57.02	109	41.74	168	43.56	185
34	188	3A	South Dearborn	44.55	40.85	214	31.43	214	45.52	180
43	189	4A	New Haven	44.53	58.95	89	39.77	177	43.41	186
35	190	3A	Northwestern	43.44	34.28	256	36.43	190	42.83	188
36	192	3A	Mishawaka Marian	43.32	56.27	114	39.21	182	41.42	192
37	194	3A	Fairfield	43.08	47.33	171	38.8	185	40.39	199
38	197	3A	Princeton	41.62	46.41	177	32.51	206	41.38	193
44	198	4A	Evansville Harrison	41.2	66.61	41	37.63	189	39.11	202
39	201	3A	Jimtown	40.63	57	110	33.37	204	42.36	190
45	204	4A	Culver Academy	39.75	45.04	186	39.2	183	37.06	213
40	205	3A	John Glenn	39.49	48.61	161	34.78	198	38.39	207
41	206	3A	Corydon Central	39.38	45.95	181	38.74	186	36.61	214
46	207	4A	Connersville	39.33	45.99	180	33.36	205	35.54	221
47	210	4A	Mount Vernon (Fortville)	38.29	65	51	28.18	220	41.18	195
42	211	3A	Crawfordsville	38.28	49.34	157	23.61	235	38.81	205
48	212	4A	Marion	38.16	60.28	74	24	233	40.7	197
49	213	4A	Evansville Central	38.07	60.92	68	32.2	207	38.37	208
50	214	4A	Wawasee	37.83	56.21	115	35.85	191	35.98	217
43	215	3A	Greensburg	37.72	52.54	138	31.97	209	38.92	204
51	216	4A	Silver Creek	37.33	43.18	200	30.17	216	35.52	222
44	217	3A	Norwell	36.95	59.12	88	31.84	212	36.11	215
45	218	3A	Jay County	36.44	49.74	154	23.69	234	38.46	206
52	219	4A	East Chicago Central	36.28	36.47	246	31.94	210	35.87	218
46	221	3A	North Harrison	35.97	44.02	195	27.26	224	36.07	216
53	222	4A	Kankakee Valley	35.73	59.56	82	28.11	221	37.78	211
47	223	3A	Speedway	35.69	65.38	48	24.89	231	38.2	210
54	224	4A	Richmond	35.68	46.54	175	26.45	227	35.75	220
55	226	4A	South Bend Washington	35.48	48.03	168	31.9	211	32.85	230
48	228	3A	Rushville	34.77	56.58	111	27.56	222	34.52	227
56	229	4A	Gary West	34.39	40.22	215	26.21	228	33.85	228
49	236	3A	Fort Wayne Concordia	32.19	60.46	73	25.41	229	31.48	236
50	237	3A	Woodlan	32.07	41.27	212	21.05	240	33.32	229
57	239	4A	Highland	31.38	55.47	118	17.08	251	31.83	234
51	243	3A	Frankton	29.84	60.87	70	18.84	246	30.87	237
58	245	4A	Fort Wayne Wayne	29.49	58.56	95	23.57	236	28.62	246
52	247	3A	River Forest	28.71	39.38	223	17.19	250	24.98	255
59	251	4A	Evansville Bosse	28.17	66.4	43	16.49	252	29.02	244
53	261	3A	Peru	25.26	43.98	196	8.61	276	27.68	248
60	267	4A	Indianapolis Shortridge	23.68	22.93	299	21.72	238	16.13	280
54	268	3A	Bellmont	23.19	53.72	132	15.87	255	21.64	266
55	271	3A	Purdue Englewood	21.89	20.44	308	11.81	270	14.31	282
56	273	3A	Owen Valley	21.21	48.12	167	8.46	277	18.25	278
61	275	4A	Jennings County	20.99	42.36	206	4.44	285	19.83	272
57	277	3A	Madison	20.37	50.89	147	12.87	268	18.92	274
58	286	3A	Indianapolis Washington	16.98	21.6	304	12.87	267	10.49	295
59	295	3A	Hammond Noll	11.58	32.76	264	-1.55	293	13.26	285
62	300	4A	Frankfort	9.03	48.3	163	-11.47	304	10.87	294
60	301	3A	West Vigo	8.91	38.87	228	-6.98	300	9.69	297
61	304	3A	Benton Central	7.07	46.45	176	-6.51	299	6.1	304

 

🔹 4A (Top 10 teams)

• Mean: 80.73

• Median: 80.13

• Standard Deviation: 4.13

• Count: 10

🔹 3A (Top 10 teams)

• Mean: 75.72

• Median: 77.54

• Standard Deviation: 7.20

• Count: 10

🔹 4A (Top 20 teams)

• Mean: 74.73

• Median: 74.01

• Standard Deviation: 7.12

• Count: 20

🔹 3A (Top 20 teams)

• Mean: 68.85

• Median: 65.85

• Standard Deviation: 8.77

• Count: 20

[23andCounting]

So what do we draw from this? That the difference between 3A and 4A is right where it's supposed to be relative to enrollments? 

[Titan32]

16 hours ago, 23andCounting said:

So what do we draw from this? That the difference between 3A and 4A is right where it's supposed to be relative to enrollments? 

I feel like at the top the two are probably closer than what one would think realative to enrollment.  The data is open to Interpretation though.