FinePrint

Halftime 

Triton 6

North Judson 6

Also Halftime 

LaVille 0

Andrean 0

15 minutes ago, Oldschool said:

So how many points does Triton have to hold NJ to in order to have a chance in your opinion?

For us to actually win, I'd say 28.  And they've only scored less than that 2 times:  against Knox and LaVille.  I think we can punch in 4 TDs.  Maybe a 2 point conversion or a field goal to win it.  But holding them to 28 would be an incredible feat for this defense!

2 hours ago, FinePrint said:

The defense was most definitely the issue in all of our losses! 

Had to look this up...

Triton defensive average in their 7 wins:  4.86

Triton defensive average in their 3 losses:  52

9 minutes ago, Mongo549 said:

If I were Triton I wouldn't worry as much about the offense as I would the defense. Thier defense gave up over 50 to LaVille and over 60 to NJSP. If you're thinking upset, it's gotta start with the defense. 

Yes of course.  The defense was most definitely the issue in all of our losses!  And you'll notice that despite projecting Triton to score 28 points, I projected that they would lose the game.

11 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Makes sense.

Yes, @Bobref I was referring to the fact that LaVille scored their 4th TD of the game in the overtime session.  Sorry, I just assumed everyone following this thread would have known their game went to overtime.  Should have been a little more clear in my post.  My bad.

13 hours ago, from_the_sidelines007 said:

Always intrigued by your work each week.

Well done!

Interesting that the forecast has Triton scoring 28 points against NJSP.  Not even HNAC champ LaVille scored that many against the Jay's.

Well, LaVille actually needed to be given extra plays and a 1st and goal from the Judson 10 yard line to score more than Triton in the regular season game.  So there's that.  😆

And, Triton scored three TD's in the first game and also turned it over 4 times.  I would say it's not unreasonable to think they might have scored on one of those possessions had they not turned it over.

Now of course I understand adjustments will be made - by both sides.  So NJSP COULD pitch a shutout.  On the other hand, Triton COULD win the game.  We'll just have to wait and see.

West Noble at Knox – The Chargers head to Knox to take on the Redskins.  West Noble boasts an 8-2 record with a couple of nice wins including an overtime win over 8-2 Eastside.  But their schedule hasn’t been as difficult as the Redskins.  The Chargers barely squeaked out a 7-6 win over Lakeland, who Knox destroyed last Friday night.  I don’t see the Redskins having any trouble with West Noble this week.  Knox Redskins 35-14

Andrean at LaVille – This one will determine if the Lancers are for real, or just another country school trying to play with the big city boys.  I think the HNAC was for real this year and LaVille should feel good about winning the conference title!  It was an accomplishment for sure.  But it means little outside of north central Indiana if they can’t beat the 59ers.  It’s unfortunate they’ll be playing with a backup QB, but that’s just the way the ball bounces sometimes.  I believe LaVille has the tools to compete with Andrean.  They are physical and disciplined, and typically don’t beat themselves with turnovers and penalties.  But Andrean’s propensity for big plays will be a problem for the Lancers.  Ultimately I think this will be a very good game.  But the loss of Plummer’s foot may just be the difference.  Andrean 59ers 28-26

South Central at Culver – Culver is looking to make it to the sectional championship for the third time in 4 seasons.  And they shouldn’t have any trouble getting there.  The ping-pong balls were kind to the Cavs again this year and they’ll win easily at home this week.  Shuman will probably have another 200 yard night enroute to a running clock.  Culver Cavaliers 42-0

Triton at North Judson – Another game that would have been fun to see next week in the Sectional 41 championship.  But I’m a proponent of the all-in, random draw tournament, so this is what you get sometimes!  Not a problem for this guy.  Judson is a machine on the offensive end!  They ran roughshod over the Trojans to the tune of 348 yards on the ground in their meeting a month ago.  Triton didn’t help themselves by turning it over 4 times, and when it started to go downhill for the Trojans, it went fast.  But Triton had close to 400 yards of offense in the first meeting, and they’ll be a little more disciplined Friday night.  This will be a much closer game.  I expect Triton to put up more points than any of Judson’s opponents have so far, but I doubt it will be enough to get the win.  The Jays are destined for a rematch with the Flying Jets.  North Judson Blue Jays 42-28

29 minutes ago, FarmerFran said:

I think the final will be around 56-14. I honestly wasn't overly impressed with Triton from our games and the film breakdown we have done. We just didn't have the cats to stop you guys. Schuh wasn't overly effective against us last week other than 1 long field reversal and looked like he was playing injured, not as explosive as the regular season. In game planning I was more worried about your QB, I just don't think that you guys utilize him enough. It will be close for a quarter, but I think that Judson's physicality will be too much for you guys in the end.

Some good observations there.  Schuh is nursing a muscle issue since the Knox game.  That's why he didn't get many carries against Winamac or Pioneer.  And it is obvious he isn't running as hard.  Shively will have to do more.  His passing has improved in the last couple games, so that's good.  And we all know he's very mobile and can hurt you when he scrambles.  And with Schuh gimpy, he'll likely get more designed runs.

Triton had 350 rushing yards against Judson in the first game.  They moved the ball pretty well, but turned it over 4 times.  Of course the Jays will adjust on D, as will the Trojans in an attempt to slow down the option attack.  Whatever the defensive game plan was last time, you throw that out!  It was awful.  Triton's capable of playing decent defense.  They held the Panthers to under 100 total yards last week according to MaxPreps.  I see it a little closer than the 40 point blowout in the first meeting, and close into the second half.  Maybe a three score game in the end.

Not much talk happening this week.  

I don't suppose you're going to see any Triton guys predicting an upset.  But then I wouldn't be too surprised if Triton makes a game of it.

LaVille guys seem to be confident they can play with Andrean.  They won't get any respect from anyone outside the HNAC unless they actually beat the 59ers.  You have to beat 'em to get the respect you want/deserve.

Hopefully Knox can take care of business.

Culver should roll.

2 hours ago, WalterSobchak said:

Triton get any points off the Pioneer turnovers?

Yes. Triton got a score after an INT. Pioneer got their score after a Triton fumble. 

HNAC teams took care of business last night in dominating fashion!  It sounds like there were some pretty impressive individual performances as well.  Triton surprisingly dominated Pioneer.  If not for 2 first quarter turnovers by the Trojans it would have been worse.

All the HNAC survivors should be favored next week.  It would be nice to see 4 teams advance to championship games.  LaVille's game with Andrean tops the docket.  That should be a really good game!  The Lancers can prove they belong if they can send the 59ers packing.  A lot of hype around that one.

We'll see if Triton can push Judson.  I'm hoping it's a good game, but geez... the Jays dropped 74 last night!

The Cavs should roll.  Knox will have a battle with West Noble, but hopefully they can win at home.

Hopefully everyone came out of the first round healthy and ready to go!

Lakeland at Knox - The Redskins should feel good as they head into sectional play.  They are Sagarin's highest rated team in Sectional 26 and have played one the most difficult schedules of the group.  Nothing's a given when the tournament rolls around, but Knox has a chance to walk away with some hardware this year.  They'll be ready for the Lakers at home this week.  Knox Redskins 35-14

Whiting at LaVille - I can't imagine the Oilers having anything in their arsenal that will push LaVille.  They only average 12 ppg and LaVille's defense is probably one of the better ones they'll see all year.  Hopefully the Lancers can use this game to get their replacement quarterback feeling a little more comfortable.  LaVille Lancers 42-7

Winamac at Central Catholic - The Knights are a very balanced offensive attack and I don't see any way the Warriors keep this one close.  LCC will impose their will and they win this one going away.  Lafayette Central Catholic 45-7

North Newton at Culver - The winless Spartans come to Culver where they will receive a shellacking by the Cavs.  Lots of yards on the ground for Shuman and his running mates.  Culver wins this one easily on their road to the Sectional 41 championship game.  Culver Cavaliers 40-0

Triton at Pioneer - This is the most interesting matchup of the night.  I've been saying all year this Pioneer team is not as bad as their record makes them appear.  There are a lot of good teams in the HNAC this year!  I know they finished 6th, but look at the teams they lost to:  LaVille, North Judson, Triton and Culver all have the best teams they've had in years.  Knox is solid again.  And the Panthers' non-conference opponents were a combined 13-5.  So I see this game being close.  Triton is - and should be - the favorite.  But a letdown by the Trojans will end their season prematurely.  If I'm a Triton senior lineman, there's no way I'm letting a group of freshmen push me around.  Ultimately I think the experience of the Trojans will prevail, but it won't be decided until the 4th.  Triton Trojans 31-22.

North Judson at South Newton - South Newton has had a good year!  Winning 6 games is an accomplishment for sure.  But these two teams have lived in different worlds this season.  The Rebels were average in the very bad Midwest Conference.  The Judson option will run roughshod over the Rebels and it won't be close after halftime.  It should be a running clock for much of the second half.  North Judson Blue Jays 49-14

West Central at Caston - I would love to see the upset of the week happen in this one!  Caston played a difficult schedule and West Central's SOS was ranked 308th in the state!  That's in the bottom 3% statewide.  But they've won the games they've played, including a week one beating of the Comets.  I haven't seen anything from Caston to indicate they've improved enough during the season to give the Trojans a run for their money this week.  West Central Trojans 34-13

28 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Define win. Like as in a single game, 2, 3, etc? From where I'm sitting both Luers and Pioneer won games. If you're asking if I believe teams need to win a minimum number of games to qualify I say no because schedules and conferences aren't created equal.

What would Luers record look like if they played Indiana Deaf's schedule? What would ID record look like if they played Luers schedule? This is why rating systems like Sagarin exist. Using raw W-L numbers is a terrible way to accurately rank teams given that schedules aren't created equal.

And using a rating system that factors in W-L record, opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS is an effective ranking system to use to counter the detractors who simply say teams who start 0-3 and 0-4 will simply quit with no hope of making the postseason. 

Okay.  Thank you.  So in theory, you are okay with a team finishing 0-9 making your playoff.  That's all I wanted you to clarify.  

30 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Luers plays in a conference with 4A, 5A, and 6A schools. This is exactly what Sagarin does and why you can't treat W-L records as gospel when comparing teams statewide unless each team is playing the same schools week in and week out. Implementing a qualification format may force teams to switch conference alliances for better or worse and in my proposal a tenth regular season would be added to either beef up your schedule or secure an additional win. 

So you are okay with a team that won 2 games against two of the worst teams in the state making the playoff where a team that finished 7-1 (Indiana Deaf) does not.  How does that support your premise that the regular season should mean something?

You didn't answer my question.  Do you believe teams should have to WIN regular season games in order to qualify?  If so, now many games?  Would you be okay with a team that finishes 0-9 qualifying for the playoff?  Above you said it's a travesty, but it sounds like if it were Luers you'd be okay with it.

22 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Nationwide there are states with far less schools and smaller populations that have qualifying formats. Wyoming has a qualifying format. As does Alaska. They have a qualifying format because teams that go 0-9 don't deserve to play a postseason game. Cambridge City Lincoln is the lowest rated Sagarin team in the entire state. Not only is CC Lincoln playing in the postseason, they have a first round bye. That's an utter travesty. 

Curious about this.  An 0-9 team playing is an utter travesty, yet you're fine with a 2-7 Luers making the cut.  How many games should a team need to win in the regular season to get them into the playoff?  This year Pioneer won only 2 games, but is ranked 29 by Sagarin.  They would make it in.  But their wins were over an 0-9 team and a 2-7 team.  If the regular season means something, shouldn't teams have to WIN in the regular season to qualify?

Triton at Pioneer has me a little nervous.  I just don't see the Panthers going out without a fight.  That program has too much pride to roll over.  

9 hours ago, AubbeenaubbeeCav said:

Caston beating West Central may be a stretch, but wouldn’t be surprised if the last place team in the HNAC (Caston) beats the 1st place team in the MWC (West Central). The quality of play between the two conferences is isignificant

I agree with you @AubbeenaubbeeCav.  If the Caston kids can get their heads up this week and play with some intensity, I wouldn't put it past them to upset the Trojans.

Looks like everything went as expected this week.  Schuh had his lowest rushing total of the season but only had a few carries, maybe 10.  On the other hand he had enough yards to break the Triton single season scoring record while going over the 1500 yard mark.  Shively looked sharp throwing the ball.  The D was a little suspect against the pass.  Still some work to do there.  But I'd say the Trojans are ready for sectional play.  

Congratulations to the Lancers on the outright HNAC title.  Well deserved!  A great regular season!  I would love to see a big tournament run by them and a couple other HNAC teams.  

Try this link for the Culver game:

https://team1sports.com/CulverTV/

26 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

My issue with the all-in is that it renders the regular season meaningless. In fact it doesn’t even acknowledge it.

If the regular season is so meaningless, why are we all on here every week talking about that week's games?

20 minutes ago, WalterSobchak said:

You are telling me Triton will beat Winamac worse then what Knox did, North Judson or LaVille? Okay. 

I don't think they'll be able to stop Schuh.  Just depends on how many carries he gets.  It might not be that bad if they only give Schuh 15 carries like they've been doing in blowout wins.  He scores every 5th time he touches the ball, so I guess 15 carries would only be 3 scores for him.  

32 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Avon wouldn’t be in a postseason that effectively cuts the field in half at the end of the regular season as they are currently a bottom half Sagarin rated team.

If Warsaw or Elkhart played Avon’s schedule they wouldn’t be 7-1 or 6-2. 
 

What’s your point?

Right.  Missing it by 2 places.  Maybe if they beat 2-6 Noblesville this week and the stars align they could still make it!  To @Bobref's point, they would be playing a meaningful regular season game.

Coach Curtis to his Warsaw players:  "Boys, we're going to leave our conference next year and beef up our schedule!  We might not win many games, but by golly, we're going to make the playoffs!  So keep your heads up, boys!  Winning 3 games and making the playoffs is a lot better than winning 8 and missing out!"

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I’d tell Elkhart and Warsaw to beef up their schedules.
 

Elkhart has the second easiest schedule of any 6A team in the state (and lost to the single 6A opponent they’ve played) while Warsaw hasn’t played a single 6A opponent yet.

So your not really a proponent of winning.  You would prefer that coaches use the Avon model over the Elkhart model.  Tell the kids losing is fine, just as long as you lose to the best teams.

Looking at Sagarin today, there are several teams with winning records (5 or more wins) that would be excluded from the tournament.  That includes Elkhart at 7-1 and Warsaw at 6-2.  There are also several teams with 3 or fewer wins that would be included over some of the 5-6 win teams.  

What are you going to tell the Lions and the Tigers, @Footballking16?

9 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

As a qualifier proponent I would 100% back an all-in format that truly seeded each sectional 1-4 or 1-8, as it would eventually be the precursor to a qualifying format. The IHSAA would have zero leg to stand on in justifying large scale, state-wide blowouts in every single sectional. 

But we all know this won't happen because of the above-mentioned.

Correct.  Won't happen because it would lead to the qualifier format due to all the lopsided games.  BUT seeding 1 and 2 is easily done and would not lead to wholesale changes with the current format.