I had occasion to get out the old crystal ball this week. So, I spent a little time looking into the future of football officiating at the upper levels of the game. Some people might find what I saw concerning, even disturbing. Don’t shoot the messenger. 😂
In the not too distant future, NFL and major college on field officials will have a greatly diminished role.
For these purposes, I am treating the NFL and major college football the same, since the latter is becoming little more than the minor leagues for the NFL. But that’s a story for another day.
The game at the upper level has evolved in 3 ways, all of which will combine to reduce the role of the on field officials.
First, the game has evolved physically. The players are bigger, faster, more athletic, harder to keep up with. They can do things you’d swear a human being couldn’t do. This aspect of the game has never placed more demands on the officials than it does now.
Secondly, the game has evolved technologically. Cameras everywhere. Enhanced use of replay. Now, every coach and fan can see, from multiple angles, in slow motion or stop action, what the on field official sees in a second. This has created unrealistic expectations among coaches and fans: “If I can see it, the official should have seen it, too.” The Dunning-Kruger Effect is in play here.
Lastly, the game has evolved financially. Not just in terms of player compensation and broadcast revenue, but gambling. There is simply too much money at stake to leave things to the judgment of an official who may not have had the best look at a play.
What does this mean for officials at the upper levels of the game? It means their role is going to be reduced to ministerial actions, like setting the ball, walking penalties, breaking up scuffles, etc. The actual calls (and no calls) will be made by AI using multiple cameras. AI will determine if there is a foul, for example, what the enforcement should be, etc., and relay that information to the field officials to administer.
In the future, the real officiating will be done at the small college level and below. Then, as the technology gets even better and more commonplace, the “reduced role” of officials will start trickling down.
Not a pretty picture, is it? I’m considering making my crystal ball into a garden ornament.