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It’s gotta be Northrop and Dwenger. 

The way Snider let Becker tear them apart last night really shocked me. I said I would be surprised if Carroll won and I am. I know there was a lot of talk about all the Snider penalties but still. 

All season I knew homestead and Noblesville had the potential to be close like that. I think I let other people talk me out of it lol. It’s a team that had the number 1 schedule in the state and played some really good teams tough. 

Honestly it made Fort Wayne look weak and that is now reflected in the Sagarin ratings. Idk about Carroll but I truly think Homestead can and will give Carmel (assuming they beat Westfield) a good game. 

The SAC teams never travel with their schedule and Homestead had almost a 2 hour bus drive. They probably looked at that 1-8 record and thought it was going to be a cakewalk although they shouldn’t have considering who Noblesville plays. 

No excuses though they’ll have to move on and get ready for Carroll. 

Avon 24-17, could see it going either way obviously but to me it looks like Avon has done whatever is needed to win this year.

I’ll stick with Snider 28-14 over Carroll and Homestead 35-10 against Noblesville 

30 minutes ago, psaboy said:

Noblesville will not beat Homestead. Now I say that, and know anything can happen, but Homestead would have to have a bad game and Noblesville would have to play their best, mistake free game. Homestead in years past would be more prone to lose this type of game, but from what I've seen, they are a top team with talent on both sides of the ball and good coaching. I say they win by 20+.

You’re right. I mean this could be the best Homestead team ever. They went to state about 20 years ago and lost in the biggest class but I was almost too young to remember that. As far as I’m concerned it’s absolutely not a stretch to say this is their best team ever. It makes it more exciting in 6a that their isn’t that dominant Ben Davis or Warren Central team this year. It is truly anyone’s year in 6A.

52 minutes ago, psaboy said:

I will say the run of sectional titles is over for the Mighty Panthers of Snider!! Hopefully they can get past Carroll and get rematch with Sparty. If so, you never know, but I would say Snider has 50/50 chance vs Carroll and 20/80 vs Homestead. 

I just really can’t see Snider losing to Carroll.  I would be pretty surprised if that happened. Not to say it won’t be a close game but when it’s all said and done I think Snider wins 28-14. However, I also have a tough time believing Snider can get by Homestead. Don’t count out Noblesville with the schedule they have played either. It does look really bad for Fort Wayne if they knock off Homestead, we’ll see what happens. 

7 hours ago, psaboy said:

Anyone know if Becker is able to play?

Think he’s good to go. He didn’t play against Concordia but I saw he played against Wayne last week. 

I’d be down 

1A.   LCC v South Adams

2A.   Pioneer v Eastbrook

3A.   West Lafayette v Mishawaka Marian 

4A.   New Prairie v East Noble

5A.   Valparaiso v Bishop Dwenger

6A.   Lafayette Jeff v Homestead 

I didn’t go out on a limb with any of these picks but the exciting part is most of these games appear pretty even. 

Wayne in Fort Wayne is stunning to me. Everyone knew they would take a step back because they lost some D1 talent from their graduating class but not like this. Dwenger beat them in the sectional championship last year 14-13 because of a missed extra point. This was a game where Dwenger had 0 first downs in the first half. They could make an argument they were the second best team in 4a last year. 

To add to this they were 7-2 in the SAC last year only losing to homestead and dwenger again in the regular season. They also beat snider 21-7 and finished 2nd in the conference. 

Ultimately, I think the final 4 will be what you just said. Harrison out of West Lafayette looks like they might be able to give Dwenger a game in regionals. I would be decently surprised if Harrison actually pulled off the upset though. New Pal and Cathedral will meet and the winner will get to state. IMO it would take an absolute miracle for one of them to go down to another team down there. 

Valpo could be tested by Mishawaka or possibly Concord but should come out on top.

Sorry I forgot that can’t be the final 4 because Cathedral and NP would play in regional but you get the idea.

14 minutes ago, psaboy said:

I'm not going to dismiss Carroll so quick. Could go ether way, the way I see. 

Right, they’re still a good team. I just think Snider will have something to prove and want to get another crack at Homestead. Plus Carroll’s QB didn’t play against Concordia to my knowledge. I’m not sure if he was injured/suspended or what the deal was. 

Well it is Homestead v Noblesville and Carroll v Snider. 

Give me Snider 28-14

Homestead 31-10

5 hours ago, BTF said:

Carroll went 0-3 against Homestead, Snider, and Dwenger. They will be hungry for a win in the tournament. Noblesville might be the best 1-7 team of all time. Sectional 3 will be fun.

That’s what I am saying. People look at Noblesville and their 1-7 record, bottom of the conference, and think they will get walked over by Snider, Carroll, and Homestead. Look at their schedule, they have not played one bad team. They don’t get to play a Wayne or South side. I’m just interested to see how the Fort Wayne teams handle them. I think Homestead or Snider beat them by a couple TD’s. I’m thinking Carroll is about a 7 point favorite against them.

That will be the most interesting sectional for me. Snider homestead Carroll and Noblesville. Very curious to see how the Fort Wayne teams do against Noblesville, who is in the best or 2nd best conference in the state. I think the SAC is 3rd. Tourney draws are Sunday I believe? 

9 hours ago, Mebuck said:

Match up tool on here say Dwenger, but I DON'T believe it.

Should be a good game Dwenger lost their best defensive player for the year, broke his foot against luers.

Hoping for a barn burner. 

I was wondering that, so it’s confirmed he’s out for the year? If true that really hurts. 

Best rivalry in the SAC. Snider has won 3 straight and gave BD their only loss last year as they went on to go 14-1 and win state. In 2015 Dwenger gave Snider their only loss of the season as they both went on to win 4a and 5a. If BD is 100% healthy I’ll take them by a TD. If they don’t have everyone back then I’ll take snider by 7.

2 hours ago, dmizers3 said:

Well there are 2 things that make zero sense:

1 - Everyone gets in the tournament 

2 - Not seeding the tournament

There are ZERO good arguments against seeding.  And in my opinion there are ZERO good arguments for the all in format.

The problem I can think of with not letting everyone in the tournament is the unbalanced schedules. You can easily have a team in any class go 4-5 and be better than a 9-0 team because of playing a much more challenging schedule. How do other states go about that? I’ve never looked into it.

To add on to what I said a good example is Bishop Luers in 2009. I believe they went 4-5 in the SAC then went on to win state.

I’ve basically only watched Fort Wayne players besides the playoffs so take it with a grain of salt. Miquale Lewis was awesome but a little bit before my time. I would have to say John Goodman at Dwenger, played WR his sophomore and junior years than QB his senior year and went on to play at ND. I can’t leave jaylon smith out either as he was completely dominant running the football.

Yeah last night didn’t change anything about 5a being on notice. Everyone should already know cathedral is one of, if not the best, team in the state regardless of class. 

All SAC games have been pushed back to 8 because of the weather. 

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

Unless Snider has issues holding onto ball and go into thug mode with numerous flags (10+), they will not have issues with Wayne. Wayne may be the worse team other than South Side this year. Snider will win by 24+

Wayne might be the worst team in the city. South side just beat them last week, I think it was by 11? Anyways I thought when Dwenger played both of them Wayne put up a much better fight but I guess that didn’t matter when they played head to head against each other.

Does any referee or coach here know what the policy is on game cancellations or postponements? Here in Fort Wayne it looks like the lightning is supposed to stop around 9:00 tonight. I know in various sports the general rule is a half hour after the last visible lightning strike I believe. 

Nice write up. Hey Miner Pride if you want to see my thoughts on Luers chances I wrote about them in the "Your state champions are" thread. This coming from someone in Fort Wayne, but I have not watched them play live yet. I will in a couple weeks when they come to Dwenger.

On 9/19/2019 at 4:54 AM, Ultimate Warrior said:

What's Luers like? Their sag rating seems a little low from what they usually are. 

It was discussed in at least one thread regarding Homestead. Sagarin can't properly calculate the Fort Wayne teams because they don't have any non-conference games. 10 teams in the conference and they all play each other. Homestead, Snider, Dwenger, and Carroll should all be in the top 25 and maybe Homestead and Dwenger in the top 15. I saw where one poster said it uses like the last 9 weeks of last year. However,  I don't know how this would be true as Dwenger won state and Luers had a good showing as well. So don't look at Sagarin to judge Fort Wayne SAC teams.

Anyways back to your question about Luers. They are not anywhere near as good as they were last year. Last year they were 5-4 in the SAC and lost to eventual 3A state champion West Lafayette in semi state, a game which Luers was up 14-0 at half btw. Yes, the field was in shit condition and that might not have happened in normal conditions but who knows. I don't see them competing in 2A this year even though it seems like when they were in 2A they would go on to win the state championship more than half of the time. This team just lost too much from last year. At most they finish at 2-7 in the SAC and possibly 1-8.

I looked at their sectional and I think they will win that but not advance any further. You can never count them out of a 2A state title but it would surprise me this year.