HoopsCoach

I meant to say Culver Academies as the 6th school in the private school division, with Blackhawk Christian as an alternative option.

New Conference: Penn, Elkhart, Warsaw, Homestead, Carroll, FW Snider, FW Northrop. 6 conference games, leaving 3 open weeks for non-conference games to maintain existing rivalries and play against opponents that fit the competitive level of each team (or cherry pick an easy win). NLC: Concord, Goshen, Mishawaka, New Prairie, Northridge, NorthWood, Plymouth, Wawasee. Summit Athletic - Public Division: SB Adams, SB Riley, SB Washington, FW North, FW South, FW Wayne Summit Athletic - Private Division: SB St. Joseph, Mishawaka Marian, FW Bishop Dwenger, FW Bishop Luers, FW Concordia, FW Blackhawk Christian (this is a stretch, but they will become competitive quickly).

Penn and Elkhart needed to either convince the Duneland schools to take them and expand the conference or put together something new with Homestead, Carroll, and maybe Warsaw. The time to do it would have been with the Elkhart consolidation, but it’s probably too late now.

It would be a tough sell trying to convince Rochester and Tippecanoe Valley to leave the Three Rivers Conference. The enrollment gap between the largest schools and smallest schools in the TRC seems to be increasing, but the top 7 schools (including Rochester and Valley) would have basically the same enrollments as the 7 schools that would form a new conference with them (not including Winamac). The average travel time for Rochester in the TRC is 28.5 miles, and Valley’s average is 27 miles. In the resurrected Northern State Conference, Rochester’s average travel distance would be 33 miles and Valley would be 32 miles. And that’s if Winamac is included since they are not far from Rochester. Here’s the enrollment comparison: TRC Peru 608 Maconaquah 594 Tippecanoe Valley 545 Rochester 485 Wabash 478 Manchester 463 Whitko 382 North Miami 278 Northfield 266 Southwood 253 New NSC Glenn 625 Knox 570 Tippecanoe Valley 545 Jimtown 541 Rochester 485 Bremen 472 LaVille 387 Winamac 374

TW, Danville, and Lebanon really haven’t grown that much, but the gap is increasing because some of the other SAC schools, especially North Montgomery and Southmont, are seeing a decline in enrollment. Here’s a comparison going back 15 years to 2007-08 and the enrollments from count day this past fall. School - 2007 Enrollment / 2022 Enrollment Danville - 811 / 778 Lebanon - 1033 / 1027 Tri-West - 560 / 615 Crawfordsville - 726 / 689 Frankfort - 906 / 895 North Montgomery - 684 / 516 Southmont - 651 / 477 Western Boone - 619 / 556

I did say “If geography was not a consideration…” My suggestion will never happen due in large part to geography. The similar enrollments, demographics, and strength of competition would make a lot of sense in my opinion, but geography is just too prohibitive for that swap to actually work.

Those schools tried the HCC and it didn’t work. I don’t think they would make any more sense for the MIC. Jeff and McCutcheon seem to fit pretty well in the NCC. Harrison has been dominant, winning the all-sport championship every year since they joined the conference. I think the only sport Harrison hasn’t won or been co-champion at least once since they joined is boys basketball, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the emphasis placed on boys basketball by all the other NCC schools. If geography was not a consideration, a trade between the NCC and Conference Indiana would be interesting. Something like this: Conference Indiana: Bloomington North, Bloomington South, Columbus North, Southport, Harrison, Lafayette Jeff, McCutcheon North Central Conference: Logansport, Kokomo, Marion, Muncie Central, Anderson, Richmond, Terre Haute North, Terre Haute South

That’s who I was thinking. The travel in Conference Indiana isn’t much better than the NCC, but Tech will be looking for a home if they don’t fulfill their dream of ending up in the MIC. I’m not sure how the Bloomington schools and Columbus North would feel about adding Tech. Southport would probably welcome Tech since they are close, and the Terre Haute schools should be open to anyone joining just so the conference stays alive. I don’t think any of the Mid-State Conference schools would see Conference Indiana as a greener pasture.

Who would they add?

Well, if they took Brownsburg with them instead of Franklin Central… HCC MIC Carmel 5192 Ben Davis 4699 Fishers 3674 Warren Central 3788 Hamilton Southeastern 3449 North Central (Indpls.) 3628 Franklin Central 3298 Avon 3342 Noblesville 3209 Pike 3287 Center Grove 2851 Brownsburg 3161 Westfield 2652 Lawrence North 2849 Zionsville 2247 Lawrence Central 2306

A swap of Carmel/Center Grove for Avon/Franklin Central would make the MIC and HCC almost mirror images of each other by enrollment. Each of those schools would probably be closer to the demographics of the conference they would move to. Brownsburg could flip instead of Franklin Central. Here’s an enrollment comparison using this year’s DOE data. HCC MIC Carmel 5192 Ben Davis 4699 Fishers 3674 Warren Central 3788 Hamilton Southeastern 3449 North Central (Indpls.) 3628 Noblesville 3209 Avon 3342 Brownsburg 3161 Franklin Central 3298 Center Grove 2851 Pike 3287 Westfield 2652 Lawrence North 2849 Zionsville 2247 Lawrence Central 2306

Since nobody has named them yet (why post about it then?), can I guess? I have no inside information, just guessing. 2 shoe in’s - Southport and Arsenal Tech 1 unsure - Columbus North 2 package deal longshots- Bloomington North and South Avon is another school I thought would go into this instead of Tech.

It’s all published annually by the department of education. I’m originally from that area so I still follow many of those schools.

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students. Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students. That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70. And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year. Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells. The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford. The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook. Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256. That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year. Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185. In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district. SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37. Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district. 81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW. Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160. Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle). In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford. They have a net transfer rate of -281. 270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central. AC has a net transfer rate of +279. I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs. That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams. SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.