The Sagarin is an excellent predictor. People who question it and think it plays favorites are people that tend to ignore data, don't understand how the Sagarin works, and are driven by "feelings" instead of facts.
Smart people can adjust the Sagarin mentally for what it doesn't "know." In this case, when you add in the factors the model can't account for (missing players, added players, and a whole host of other variables) the needle moves more toward The Burg.
Tigers by 7.