2A Week 4

[Miner_Pride]

Evansville Memorial at Evansville Mater Dei

 

A big game in the southern portion of Indiana.  The Wildcats under 23 year coach Mike Goebel host the John Hurley led Tigers of Memorial.  Mater Dei is ranked 1^st in 2A (AP) and 2^nd from IFCA and owns a solid win over 2-1 2A Whiting in week 2 56-12.  Memorial is ranked 4^th in AP/ 5^th in IFCA and beat 4A 1-2 Jasper 35-20 in opening week, as well as a long road trio to handle 1-2 4A Northview 24-0.  They come off a 40-28 win over an improved 1-2 5A  Evansville North squad.  Mater Dei easily handled winless 4A Evansville Harrison 38-7 last week. The last two years have seen Memorial dominate the Wildcats, 51-14 last year, then 37-14 in 2017, but Mater Dei won the prior 7 meetings.  The Tiger’s senior class has known a lot of success at 40-6  Sagarin would have this a 12.4 pt win for Memorial.  Memorial at 86.03 (2^nd in class, 21 in state) and Mater Dei at 76.63 (3/48).   The Wildcats do have the 13^th highest scoring offense in the state (47.7), which is 2^nd in 2A, but nothing shabby about the Tigers 33.0 avg and Memorial’s schedule strength (67.95) is 12^th in 4A, 48^th in state, much better than the 190^th state rank of 39.5 for the Wildcats. 

 

Linton-Stockton at North Vermillion

 

Coach Brian Crabtree’s Falcon’s lost just two games in 2018; one in the state final to Pioneer, the other in week 4 to Linton’s Miners 34-7.   The Miner’s have bested NV in each of the last 5 meetings by a combined 220-59 points.  The Falcon seniors would love to change this tide in their final clash with Coach Brian Oliver’s squad.  At 31-9 in their career, 3 of those losses come from Linton.  Linton is coming off their worst WL season since 1996 @ 5-6, and wants to restore some luster to the program.  After a hard fought error filled 28-20 loss to unbeaten 3A Southridge to open the season, Linton regrouped to beat 1-2 3A Sullivan 35-12, and winless 2A Monrovia 35-0.  North Vermillion coasted 43-8 over 4A winless Oven Valley on the road, and last week 35-0 over winless Covington. Squeezed between those two wins was their toughest battle thus far, a 42-38 win over 2-1 3A rival South Vemillion.  The Miners have a Sag rating of 62.55, 6^th in 2A, 86^th in state, while the Falcons sit 9^th in 1A (142 overall) at 48.27. This would favor Linton on the road by 14.3 but the Miners have been susceptible to the passing game of which the Falcons could spotlight.  Both offenses put up points.  NV at 40/game, Linton at 30.  SOS is a clear nod to the Miners at 47.54 (14^th in 2A, 33^rd overall) compared to 21.25 (31/266) for the Falcons.  The Miners are slowly getting attention in the 2A polls, jumping to #12 AP/ #11 IFCA, while North Vermillion sits at #3 AP #4 IFCA In the 1A Polls. 

 

 

 

Delphi at Sheridan

 

The renewal of a series that played from 2001 through 2010.  The Oracles opened that series with 2 blow out wins (34-0 and 35-7) before the tide turned and the Blackhawks won the last 8.  Coach Strasser has the Delphi program coming off their best win season (9-1) since a 9-2 2000 season ended in a sectional title loss.  2018 saw them fall to Rensselaer Central in the opening round.  They’ve started off with 2 wins this year (29-0 over winless 3A Benton Central, and 20-9 over 2-1 1A Carroll (Flora), but they lost last week 28-14 to 3-0 unbeaten Eastern (Greentown) . The Blackhawks, under the 54 year tutelage of Larry Bud Wright took a hit in the opening week to a high ranked 2A Western Boone (2-1 #4/#3) 41-6.  They have responded to that with back to back wins over 1-2 1A Clinton Central 49-29, then 50-19 over 2-1 1A Tri-Central. Neither team’s SOS is above 20, both in the lower realms of the state rank (276, 294), and their SAG rankings are neither identical.  Sheridan seems to have the more potent offense at 35/ppg, while the Oracle D allows just 12.33 per game (11^th in 2A).  That Western Boone score certainly hurts the numbers for Sheridan.  Still the Blackhawks are ranked #12 in both polls, and having played the highly ranked Stars will have given them  good game experience.   This game being at Sheridan, I have to think the Blackhawks would be favored by more than the 0.64 Sagarin gives them.  Perhaps the Oracles can prove people wrong.  No votes in either poll says they haven’t earned that respect yet.  Here is an opportunity.

 

 

Heritage Christian @ Eastern Hancock

 

The 2^nd year in this series that saw the Eagles hammer a 33-6 win last year.  Coach Armstrong is trying to get the Royals back to that 3 year run of 34 wins and 5 losses (2013-2015), coming off a 3-7 season in his 1^st year.  They have started strong at 3-0 win wins over 3A Northwestern 42-15, 1A Wes-Del 48-22 and 1A Fountain Central.  The only thing is those teams are combined 1-8.  The 17.88 SOS for the Royals is 57^th in 2A, 280^th overall.  Heritage Christian however is 19^th in 2A, and Coach Ray also had the Eagles out strong with huge wins over 3A winless Manual 56-0 and 2A-1-2 Shenandoah 48-7.  Then the Eagles suffered the 23-5 loss to 3A unbeaten Gueren Catholic last week.  This sets up a battle of high scoring offenses--- EH at 46 per  game, 3^rd in 2A 17^th overall; HC 36.33 9^th in 2A 46^th overall.  However, it’s the Eagle defense to watch- 10.00 allowed per game, 7^th in 2A, 30^th over all.  Doug Armstrong is just starting his 2^nd year in Charlotteville, but is in his 18^th year coaching.  The Royals are at #16 in coaches poll, which 4-year coach Ray has Heritage Christian at #9 in AP, #13 in IFCA.   The SAG favors the Eagles by 16.5 (61.09 to 44.60).

 

 

Tri-West @ Western Boone

 

Based on the history between these two programs…. This will be a game to watch!   From 2000 on, in 19 meetings the Bruins have a 12-7 edge, but the Stars have won the past 2 tight games 7-0 and an overtime 35-34 win in 2017.  Tri-West opened the year with a 22-7 win over 1-2 1A LCC, then fell to 5A Plainfield 28-13.  WeBo lead off with a convincing 41-6 win over 2-1 1A Sheridan, before a 1 point 42-41 loss at 2-1 4A Western.  Jason Ward is in his 1^st year as head coach of the Bruins, and coming in after a 62-6 shellacking of winless 4A Frankfort, his team is 9^th in 2A in scoring D at 13.67 per game.  Justin Pelley’s 7^th year at Western Boone has a potent offense that averages 43.67 per game, 5^th in 2A and 25^th in the state.  They rebounded from the tough Western loss to pound winless 4A Carwfordsville 49-0.  Both have similar SAG rankings with WeBo slightly higher at 57.72 to Tri West’s 54.40.  This would favor the starts by slightly more than a field goal.   SOS however is solidly in Tri-West’s favor 44.73 to 28.37. The Stars are the defending 2A state champions, and ranked #4 in AP. #3 by the coaches.  The Bruins sit at #15/#14 in polls, and were winners of their sectional in 3A in 2018.  The Scores of their battles in the last 7 years have been by 1 score or less. This is accented by the total points over that period being 170 for TW and 160 for WB! 

 

 

 

 

Tipton @ Lewis Cass

 

The Kings have not started 3-0 since their 2015 campaign that ended one and done with a 6-4 mark.  Head Coach Jeff Phillips has had back to back 7-5 seasons, but like Tipton, they’ve been unable to get out of their sectional.  IN both cases it was Eastbrook who ended the Kings season. For Coach Aaron Tolle, the Blue Devils come in on the heels of great 9-2 seasons in ’18 and ’17, but ended losing to Western Boone in their sectionals both years.  Tipton comes in ranked #8 AP #7 IFCA in 2A, Lewis Cass a solid #3 across the board in 2A.   Cass has the top scoring offense in 2A at 48.33 (12^th in State overall), but Tipton is up there at #11 (33.33).  The Kings defense has also shined, allowing just 9.33 per game (5^th in 2A, 27 in state).  But again, the Blue Devils have allowed just 11.33 (9^th/38^th). That’s about as far as the number go in terms of being close.  Tipton’s Schedule Strength is a paltry 16.2, due to wins over winless 2A Madison-Grant 19-6; Winless 2A Elwood 62-14, and 1-2 3A Twin Lakes by six 19-14.  Cass opened up with a big win over two-time 1A defending champs Pioneer (2-1) now 2A with a 28-22 win.  Their first over the Pioneers in 6 years.  The Kings then reeled off a 49-6 win over 1-2 3A Maconaquah and a 68-0 pounding of winless 3A Benton Central.  Their SOS is 10^th in 2A at 51.56.  This may be a reason for the huge disparity between the two in SAG rankings.  Cass is heavily the favorite by nearly 40 with the top SAG rating in 2A at 78.38 compared to 38.69 for Tipton.   The Blue Devils have won the last 3 meetings, 27-15, 17-13 and 31-21. 

 

 

 

Beech Grove @ Indianapolis Scecina

 

                The Hornets have lost 3 straight to the Crustaders and Ott Hurle including last year’s 21-12 decision. The lone loss on BG’s record came in week 1 to 1A #1 Indianapolis Lutheran by only five 27-22.  Scecina opened up with a 28-18 win over 1-2 2A Shenandoah.  Both team have beaten winless Cascade and 1-2 Speedway…but the margins indicate a more dominant Crusader balllclub.  They handled the Cadets 45-14 compared to a 28-13 Hornet margin. Same thing with the Sparkplugs- Scecina wins 42-7 while BG only won by eight 21-13.  This Crusader senior class has gone 34-7, but want to go further that the sectional title they had last year.   Mark Weller and the Hornets have gone one and done in sectionals 13 of the last 18 years, and you have to go back to 2000 for a sectional title shot.  They aren’t a particularly high scoring team, just 23.67 (26^th in 4A) and will face the 8^th highest scoring O in 2A (38.33)… plus a Crusader defense allowing just 13 ppg (14^th in 2A).  SOS marks are close with the Hornets at 44.25, Scecina at 42.02.  However,  the Crusaders- ranked #2 in AP, #1 with the Coaches, have the #4 2A Sag rating at 67.17.  The Hornets are at 31 in 4A at 52.33.  This makes Scecina the favorite by 14.6 pts. 

[Coach Nowlin]

Oops:  hit wrong button:  I believe Webo wins

Love the write ups

 

[Miner_Pride]

A little late start... but I waited too late to update all my spreadsheets!!

 

[Miner_Pride]

No love to the Wildcats, Bruins or Blue Devils tonight?@@ !!