Home Teams Had A 10 Point Advantage in Semistate (Sagarin)

[hhpatriot04]

i thought this was very interesting. I used the Sagarin predictors from Week 13.

Winning Team, Losing Team — Sagarin favorite (real margin vs. prediction)

CLASS 1A
Pioneer 31, SOUTH ADAMS 14 — Pioneer by 8 (-17 pts)
South Putnam 40, MILAN 7  — South Putnam BY 14 (-19 pts)
CLASS 2A
ANDREAN 24, Adams Central 19 — ANDREAN by 5 (1 pt)
Brownstown Central 31, LAPEL 21 — Brownstown by 7 (-3 pts)
CLASS 3A
FW LUERS 35, Knox 0 — Knox by 5 (40 pts)
CASCADE 49, Gibson Southern 34 — CASCADE by 4 (9 pts)
CLASS 4A
FW DWENGER 28, South Bend St. Joseph 7 — DWENGER by 5 (16 pts)
RONCALLI 42, Heritage Hills 14 — RONCALLI by 14 (28 pts) 
CLASS 5A
MERRILLVILLE 41, Concord 14 — MERRILLVILLE by 4 (23 pts)
NEW PALESTINE 42, Bloomington South 0 — NEW PAL by 8 (34 pts)
CLASS 6A
Westfield 35, FW CARROLL 14 — Westfield by 10 (-11 pts)
BROWNSBURG 31, Warren Central 0 — BROWNSBURG by 14 (17 pts)

HOME TEAMS went 8-4 in semistate games.

HOME TEAMS beat their Sagarin prediction by 118 total points (9.8 points per game — this is factoring in the "negative" points from road winners).
 

[Bobref]

10 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

i thought this was very interesting. I used the Sagarin predictors from Week 13.

Winning Team, Losing Team — Sagarin favorite (real margin vs. prediction)

CLASS 1A
Pioneer 31, SOUTH ADAMS 14 — Pioneer by 8 (-17 pts)
South Putnam 40, MILAN 7  — South Putnam BY 14 (-19 pts)
CLASS 2A
ANDREAN 24, Adams Central 19 — ANDREAN by 5 (1 pt)
Brownstown Central 31, LAPEL 21 — Brownstown by 7 (-3 pts)
CLASS 3A
FW LUERS 35, Knox 0 — Knox by 5 (40 pts)
CASCADE 49, Gibson Southern 34 — CASCADE by 4 (9 pts)
CLASS 4A
FW DWENGER 28, South Bend St. Joseph 7 — DWENGER by 5 (16 pts)
RONCALLI 42, Heritage Hills 14 — RONCALLI by 14 (28 pts) 
CLASS 5A
MERRILLVILLE 41, Concord 14 — MERRILLVILLE by 4 (23 pts)
NEW PALESTINE 42, Bloomington South 0 — NEW PAL by 8 (34 pts)
CLASS 6A
Westfield 35, FW CARROLL 14 — Westfield by 10 (-11 pts)
BROWNSBURG 31, Warren Central 0 — BROWNSBURG by 14 (17 pts)

HOME TEAMS went 8-4 in semistate games.

HOME TEAMS beat their Sagarin prediction by 118 total points (9.8 points per game — this is factoring in the "negative" points from road winners).
 

And Sagarin favorites went 11-1.

[jakone]

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

And Sagarin favorites went 11-1.

The only loss was Luers which makes me feel better against Cascade 

[hhpatriot04]

So was this a fluke?

[Bobref]

6 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

So was this a fluke?

Insufficient data.

[First_Backer_Inside]

Send this to Vegas and ask them. They are pretty good at this sort of thing. If they can't help you, at least we know everything in the professional sporting world is scripted.

[Bobref]

3 minutes ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

at least we know everything in the professional sporting world is scripted.

Not you, too, with this “NFL is rigged” claptrap? How do you feel about the Moon landing? Flat earth?

[First_Backer_Inside]

6 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Not you, too, with this “NFL is rigged” claptrap? How do you feel about the Moon landing? Flat earth?

Haven't looked into them. I like the idea of us on the moon. Which means I'm all for the earth being round...I think. 

I wasn't a firm believer in the NFL thing until the last couple of years. How do the Chiefs run through the NFL for multiple years in a row while Taylor Swift and Kelce are all over news making the NFL money and drawing outside fans attention. The attention dies down...so does the Chiefs dominance. Just odd to me. I could keep going on things of recent but I don't really believe it, more just speculation that makes sense to me. Up until after Covid and sportsbooks becoming more popular, I haven't really looked into it. If I didn't think Vegas has a little bit of pull in how professional sports go every year, I would call myself crazy, but I'm not confident enough in it to call anyone else crazy.

[jakone]

15 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Not you, too, with this “NFL is rigged” claptrap? How do you feel about the Moon landing? Flat earth?

Refs rigged the Colts game and I would like to send them on a round the world cruise. Maybe they will fall off the flat Earth. 🌎🌍🤣

Edited December 1, 2025 by jakone

[Bobref]

10 minutes ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

Haven't looked into them. I like the idea of us on the moon. Which means I'm all for the earth being round...I think. 

I wasn't a firm believer in the NFL thing until the last couple of years. How do the Chiefs run through the NFL for multiple years in a row while Taylor Swift and Kelce are all over news making the NFL money and drawing outside fans attention. The attention dies down...so does the Chiefs dominance. Just odd to me. I could keep going on things of recent but I don't really believe it, more just speculation that makes sense to me. Up until after Covid and sportsbooks becoming more popular, I haven't really looked into it. If I didn't think Vegas has a little bit of pull in how professional sports go every year, I would call myself crazy, but I'm not confident enough in it to call anyone else crazy.

Disappointing.