PAC Week 4

[Titan32]

Friday, Sep. 11

Boonville at Central, 6:30 pm

Forest Park at Tecumseh ©, 6:30 pm

Gibson Southern at Henderson County (Ky.), 7 pm

Heritage Hills at Southridge ©, 6:30 pm

Mount Vernon at South Spencer, 7 pm

North Daviess at Pike Central, 6 pm

North Posey at Tell City ©, 7 pm

Washington at Princeton ©, 6:30 pm

[Titan32]

Massey:

Boonville 38 Central 13 90%

Forest Park 21 Tecumseh 27 59%

Gibson Southern 42 Henderson County 27 74%

Heritage Hills 42 Southridge 14 92%

Mt. Vernon 35  South Spencer 18 78%

North Daviess 44 Pike Central 7 99%

North Posey 41 Tell City 21 79%

Washington 34 Princeton 22 69%

 

[hhpatriot04]

Predictor Tool (using Sagarin ratings)

Boonville is a 27.0-point favorite at  Ev. Central with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Boonville 95.72%,  Ev. Central 4.28%.

Tecumseh is a 12.0-point favorite hosting  Forest Park with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Tecumseh 79.92%,  Forest Park 20.08%.

Southridge is a 3.0-point favorite hosting  Heritage Hills with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Southridge 58.55%,  Heritage Hills 41.45%.

Mt. Vern. (Posey) is a 1.0-point favorite at  South Spencer with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Mt. Vern. (Posey) 52.88%,  South Spencer 47.12%.

North Daviess is a 39.5-point favorite at  Pike Central with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  North Daviess 98.95%,  Pike Central 1.05%.

North Posey is a 18.5-point favorite at  Tell City with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  North Posey 89.38%,  Tell City 10.62%.

Washington is a 11.0-point favorite at  Princeton with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Washington 78.01%,  Princeton 21.99%.

[HHPatriots]

Heritage Hills (2-1) vs. Southridge (1-2)   This Friday marks a historic milestone as Heritage Hills travels to Southridge for the 60th meeting between these two storied programs.   HISTORY OF THE MATCHUP The Patriots lead the overall series 42-17.    This matchup represents one of the deepest traditions in Indiana high school football. Southridge is one of just three teams from Heritage Hills' inaugural 1972 schedule that the Patriots have played every single season without interruption.   The Matchup by Numbers The Patriots enter the game boasting a high-powered offense averaging nearly 47 points per game, backed by a defense allowing just two touchdowns a match. The Raiders look to defend their home turf and balance out their season, currently averaging 24.3 points per game while giving up 22.0.   PACK THE STANDS this Friday  to cheer for the RED, WHITE & BLUE! 1972 HH 29, SR 8 1973 HH 10, SR 0 1974 SR 38, HH 0 1975 SR 9, HH 7 1976 SR 19, HH 13 1977 HH 29, SR 8 1978 SR 15, HH 11 1979 HH 36, SR 14 1980 HH 34, SR 2 1981 SR 7, HH 6 1982 HH 18, SR 13 1983 HH 13, SR 7 1984 SR 27, HH 14 1985 SR 45, HH 14 1986 HH 29, SR 0 1987 HH 40, SR 13 1988 HH 49, SR 22 1989 SR 12, HH 7 1990 HH 26, SR 6 1990 HH 27, SR 20 1991 HH 20, SR 0 1992 HH 39, SR 12 1993 HH 38, SR 0 1994 HH 42, SR 6 1995 HH 51, SR 6 1996 HH 36, SR 12 1997 HH 46, SR 0 1998 SR 21, HH 20 1999 HH 31, SR 0 2000 HH 42, SR 6 2001 HH 30, SR 0 2002 HH 42, SR 0 2003 HH 43, SR 8 2004 HH 48, SR 28 2005 HH 33, SR 0 2006 HH 26, SR 0 2007 HH 35, SR 13 2008 SR 26, HH 7 2009 HH 21, SR 14 2010 HH 15, SR 12 2011 HH 21, SR 0 2012 HH 34, SR 0 2013 SR 34, HH 8 2014 HH 33, SR 7 2015 HH 17, SR 7 2016 SR 29, HH 17 2016 SR 37, HH 34 2017 SR 17, HH 7 2018 HH 24, SR 14 2019 HH 42, SR 7 2019 HH 27, SR 7 2020 SR 34, HH 14 2021 HH 20, SR 13 2022 SR 35, HH 7 2022 SR 42, HH 14 2023 HH 45, SR 13 2023 HH 23, SR 20 2024 HH 43, SR 14 2025 HH 45, SR 0

[hhpatriot04]

Kinda worried about Southridge. If the Patriots don't jump out early, I think this has the potential to be a close game.

Ran this analysis on margin-of-victory:

All-Time
Average margin of victory: 21.5 points (regardless of winner)
Average margin from HH's perspective: +13.1 points (HH-favored)
When HH wins: average margin of 24.3 points
When SR wins: average margin of 14.5 points

Last 10 Matchups
HH leads 7-3
Average margin of victory: 24.7 points (bigger blowouts recently)
Average margin from HH's perspective: +9.5 points

[Titan32]