PAC Week 4

[Titan32]

Friday, Sep. 11

Boonville at Central, 6:30 pm

Forest Park at Tecumseh ©, 6:30 pm

Gibson Southern at Henderson County (Ky.), 7 pm

Heritage Hills at Southridge ©, 6:30 pm

Mount Vernon at South Spencer, 7 pm

North Daviess at Pike Central, 6 pm

North Posey at Tell City ©, 7 pm

Washington at Princeton ©, 6:30 pm

[Titan32]

Massey:

Boonville 38 Central 13 90%

Forest Park 21 Tecumseh 27 59%

Gibson Southern 42 Henderson County 27 74%

Heritage Hills 42 Southridge 14 92%

Mt. Vernon 35  South Spencer 18 78%

North Daviess 44 Pike Central 7 99%

North Posey 41 Tell City 21 79%

Washington 34 Princeton 22 69%

 

[hhpatriot04]

Predictor Tool (using Sagarin ratings)

Boonville is a 27.0-point favorite at  Ev. Central with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Boonville 95.72%,  Ev. Central 4.28%.

Tecumseh is a 12.0-point favorite hosting  Forest Park with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Tecumseh 79.92%,  Forest Park 20.08%.

Southridge is a 3.0-point favorite hosting  Heritage Hills with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Southridge 58.55%,  Heritage Hills 41.45%.

Mt. Vern. (Posey) is a 1.0-point favorite at  South Spencer with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Mt. Vern. (Posey) 52.88%,  South Spencer 47.12%.

North Daviess is a 39.5-point favorite at  Pike Central with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  North Daviess 98.95%,  Pike Central 1.05%.

North Posey is a 18.5-point favorite at  Tell City with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  North Posey 89.38%,  Tell City 10.62%.

Washington is a 11.0-point favorite at  Princeton with a 1.8-point HFA.
Win probability:  Washington 78.01%,  Princeton 21.99%.

[HHPatriots]

Heritage Hills (2-1) vs. Southridge (1-2)   This Friday marks a historic milestone as Heritage Hills travels to Southridge for the 60th meeting between these two storied programs.   HISTORY OF THE MATCHUP The Patriots lead the overall series 42-17.    This matchup represents one of the deepest traditions in Indiana high school football. Southridge is one of just three teams from Heritage Hills' inaugural 1972 schedule that the Patriots have played every single season without interruption.   The Matchup by Numbers The Patriots enter the game boasting a high-powered offense averaging nearly 47 points per game, backed by a defense allowing just two touchdowns a match. The Raiders look to defend their home turf and balance out their season, currently averaging 24.3 points per game while giving up 22.0.   PACK THE STANDS this Friday  to cheer for the RED, WHITE & BLUE! 1972 HH 29, SR 8 1973 HH 10, SR 0 1974 SR 38, HH 0 1975 SR 9, HH 7 1976 SR 19, HH 13 1977 HH 29, SR 8 1978 SR 15, HH 11 1979 HH 36, SR 14 1980 HH 34, SR 2 1981 SR 7, HH 6 1982 HH 18, SR 13 1983 HH 13, SR 7 1984 SR 27, HH 14 1985 SR 45, HH 14 1986 HH 29, SR 0 1987 HH 40, SR 13 1988 HH 49, SR 22 1989 SR 12, HH 7 1990 HH 26, SR 6 1990 HH 27, SR 20 1991 HH 20, SR 0 1992 HH 39, SR 12 1993 HH 38, SR 0 1994 HH 42, SR 6 1995 HH 51, SR 6 1996 HH 36, SR 12 1997 HH 46, SR 0 1998 SR 21, HH 20 1999 HH 31, SR 0 2000 HH 42, SR 6 2001 HH 30, SR 0 2002 HH 42, SR 0 2003 HH 43, SR 8 2004 HH 48, SR 28 2005 HH 33, SR 0 2006 HH 26, SR 0 2007 HH 35, SR 13 2008 SR 26, HH 7 2009 HH 21, SR 14 2010 HH 15, SR 12 2011 HH 21, SR 0 2012 HH 34, SR 0 2013 SR 34, HH 8 2014 HH 33, SR 7 2015 HH 17, SR 7 2016 SR 29, HH 17 2016 SR 37, HH 34 2017 SR 17, HH 7 2018 HH 24, SR 14 2019 HH 42, SR 7 2019 HH 27, SR 7 2020 SR 34, HH 14 2021 HH 20, SR 13 2022 SR 35, HH 7 2022 SR 42, HH 14 2023 HH 45, SR 13 2023 HH 23, SR 20 2024 HH 43, SR 14 2025 HH 45, SR 0

[hhpatriot04]

Kinda worried about Southridge. If the Patriots don't jump out early, I think this has the potential to be a close game.

Ran this analysis on margin-of-victory:

All-Time
Average margin of victory: 21.5 points (regardless of winner)
Average margin from HH's perspective: +13.1 points (HH-favored)
When HH wins: average margin of 24.3 points
When SR wins: average margin of 14.5 points

Last 10 Matchups
HH leads 7-3
Average margin of victory: 24.7 points (bigger blowouts recently)
Average margin from HH's perspective: +9.5 points

[Titan32]

[hhpatriot04]

Man we need to get the new subscriber feature fixed. The NP-TC game should have some serious smack talk going on right now.

ETA: Here's an AI prediction feeding in Sagarin data for both teams, opponents, and scoring averages:

North Posey 35, Tell City 19 — Margin: 15.5 | 🔴 Pace: HIGH — Shootout

Win Probability: North Posey 91.1% — Tell City 8.9% [DOMINANT]

Two HIGH pace signals fired — combined matchup of 60.6 (above 59) and both adj OAs above 40. The blend weight stepped up to 0.275 with 3 games played, giving the matchup layer a bit more influence. The matchup layer actually helped Tell City here — their underdog base was only 16.2 but the matchup pulled them up to 19.1 because their adj OA of 40.7 against North Posey's 12.8 DA gives them a realistic path to points.

The 20.43-point Predictor gap is massive though. Tell City's 3-0 record is built on two very weak opponents and a one-point escape from W. Washington. North Posey has been consistently dominant against better competition. Even with the new HFA of 1.77, Tell City would need an enormous upset to pull this off.

[Titan32]

 

[Titan32]

15 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Man we need to get the new subscriber feature fixed. The NP-TC game should have some serious smack talk going on right now.

North Posey (3-0) at Tell City (3-0)

This might be one of the more interesting games in SW Indiana Friday night. Two undefeated 2A teams meet at Legion Field with North Posey traveling to Tell City for a 7 p.m. CT kickoff.

North Posey has looked very good through three weeks and has probably been the more tested of the two. The Vikings opened with a 34-21 road win over Southridge, followed that with a 48-14 win over Tecumseh and then handled North Knox 45-7 last week.

The Vikings have scored 127 points through three games while allowing only 42.

North Posey has plenty of balance offensively. Senior QB Carter Schickel has been very efficient throwing the football, while senior RB Cade Mauck gives them a legitimate running threat. Mauck is coming off another big night against North Knox with 116 yards on just 12 carries and 3 TDs.

Tell City might be one of the more interesting early-season stories in the PAC.

The Marksmen are also 3-0 after beating Perry Central 49-6, surviving West Washington 37-36 and then absolutely hammering Pike Central 67-0 last week.

That's 153 points in three games — 51 points per game.

Unfortunately, Tell City hasn't entered its individual statistics into MaxPreps, so it's hard to get a complete picture of how they're producing those numbers. One guy we do know about is senior QB Lucas Beier. He accounted for more than 230 total yards and 4 TDs against Pike Central and was nominated for the Courier & Press Player of the Week.

Tell City has also shown two different sides already. They dominated Perry Central and Pike Central by a combined 116-6, but had to find a way to win a 37-36 game against West Washington. That's not necessarily a bad thing for an undefeated team three weeks into the season.

North Posey has history on its side. The Vikings have won the last four meetings, including 38-21 last season. Tell City's last win over North Posey came in 2020, 35-17.

There is also plenty of tradition between these programs. Almanac Sports has North Posey at 387 all-time wins, while Tell City sits at 494. Tell City has been playing football since 1938 and Legion Field dates back to 1940, so it's a pretty good setting for a matchup of undefeated teams.

The numbers through three weeks are interesting:

North Posey — 127 PF, 42 PA
Tell City — 153 PF, 42 PA

Exactly 42 points allowed by each team, while they've combined to score 280.

My biggest question is simply how good Tell City really is. North Posey has already gone on the road and beaten Southridge and has been one of the better 2A programs in this part of the state for several years. Tell City went 5-5 last year but certainly looks like it may have taken a significant step forward.

Friday should tell us a lot.

North Posey (3-0) at Tell City (3-0)
Friday — 7 p.m. CT — Legion Field