scarab527

10 minutes ago, foxbat said:

I'm not sure DC got the best draw outside of the potential to survive to the second round.  I actually think their better draw would have been Plainfield.  I don't expect McCutcheon to do much to get Decatur Central ready to face Harrison.  A rematch with Plainfield, even though Plainfield won the first game, would give DC an opportunity to sharpen their skills and have a major morale boost, heading into a second round with Harrison.  I think Harrison probably ended up with the best draw and I think Plainfield probably got the second best ... drawing Decatur Central might have been their best draw given the proximity to their win over DC and Harrison getting stuck playing Richmoand and McCutcheon with a week off for the next three weeks.  While it wasn't optimal for all teams, I think it was a great draw overall for Sectional 13 action.

 

Fair assessment. I guess I was just looking at it from the perspective that DC will get a less physically taxing game as opposed to Harrison/Plainfield. To your point, Harrison actually getting a competitive game at this point in their season might be good for them as well.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see. 

19 hours ago, foxbat said:

I like the draw in Sectional 13.  Summer and pre-season, Decatur Central was the odds on favorite to emerge victorious from Sectional 13 and there was conjecture that it would likely be Decatur Central and maybe Whiteland that would be odds-on favorites to represent 5A South.  At the start of the season, Harrison was a two-TD underdog to DC and is now a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral field.

Harrison already played Plainfield earlier in the season and won 22-14 in a tighter-than-expected game.  Plainfield also beat DC earlier in the season, in overtime, 34-32.  I like the draw of Harrison and Plainfield getting a chances to square off again.  If Harrison wins, it most likely gets Decatur Central in a much-anticipated showdown for the sectional championship as Decatur Central will face off against 2-7/3-6 McCutcheon in what is probably the easiest draw for first game in Sectional 13.  Should Plainfield knock off Harrison in a revenge game, it sets up a Plainfield-Decatur Central rematch too.  Given the players and possible outcomes, I think that the ping pong balls fell optimally for matchups across both rounds for Sectional 13.

DC definitely got the best draw in this sectional getting McCutcheon. In a sectional where 3 of the 4 teams are pretty evenly matched, drawing the weakest team is for sure a positive, similar to North Side getting Anderson while Snider and Dwenger play again. I'm interested to see who will come out of this sectional, as you said it's a lot more open than what people thought at the beginning of the year. 

16 hours ago, kdets89 said:

Worst in 1A is clearly North Decatur/Tri in the first round.  With all due respect to Sheridan, the winner of this game will likely play in the south semistate.  Should have been the sectional 46 championship game.

To be honest if the two teams are going to have to play each other either way I don't see the difference in round 1 vs sectional championship other than semantics. 

8 minutes ago, OldschoolFB said:

Hallway monitor

Yep. Now get back to class, son. 

We all know the ping pong balls can be fickle, giving certain teams sweetheart draws while giving others seemingly the most-difficult draw possible. I was wondering what everyone thought were some of the best/worst draws for teams throughout the state this year. Here's some I saw:

BEST: 

- Chatard: The Trojans land on the opposite side of the bracket from Oak Hill, Guerin, and Tippecanoe, the three teams with likely the greatest shot at knocking off the Trojans in Sectional 28. Chatard will only have to beat one of them to make it through to the Regional. The Trojans would be favored in every one of these hypothetical games anyway, but avoiding the grind of having to play multiple of these teams is definitely a boon for the Trojans. 

BEST: 

- FW North Side: Getting to play Anderson while Snider gets Dwenger again is huge for the Legends. They'll be nice and rested for their rematch with Snider while the Panthers will have to dispatch of Dwenger for the second time in a month.  

WORST: 

- Oak Hill/Guerin: Mirroring what I just said about Chatard, both of these teams undoubtedly would've preferred to see the other play Chatard and possibly soften up the Trojans a little bit. Instead they get each other in the first round, and then the winner will get undefeated Tippecanoe Valley in round 2. Just a brutal draw for the teams looking to pull an upset in Sectional 28. 

WORST: 

- Gibson Southern: Getting Vincennes round 1 followed by Owen Valley round 2 likely isn't how the Titans would prefer to start their class 3A title defense. They would've had to beat one of these teams no matter what but now they'll have to go through both. 

WORST: 

- Carroll/Penn: Tough sectional made tougher by virtue of the draw. I'm guessing if you had to ask which team either of these programs wanted to play round 1 neither would've answered with each other. Whoever gets out of sectional 2 will have earned it. 

WORST: 

- Tri-West: Having to play rematches of close games with Danville and WeBo to start the postseason is clearly not the best draw outcome for the Bruins. It won't be easy to get through both of them.

WORST:

- Andrean: Getting the bye before a rematch with LaVille just doesn't seem to me to be a good thing for the Niners. Chance to lose rhythm during the off week and to come out flat against the Lancers. Coach Skinner even alluded to this in his recent interview with the NWI Times. The Niners have two weeks to prepare for the Lancers, but with LaVille playing Whiting they basically have two weeks of preparation with the added bonus of getting to remain in rhythm and potentially putting new things on tape during their game against the Oilers.   

15 minutes ago, Rodney said:

It is a forum

I write in a way that gets my point across and nothing more

Were you unable to understand what I wrote?

Once I corrected your error I was able to 😉.

It is indeed a forum. Just giving you some friendly advice that if you're going to attack someone's intelligence on said forum, make sure you're not committing basic grammatical errors when you do so lmao.  

Just now, Rodney said:

This isn't exactly academic writing

if you'll take note I also just start a new line whenever I feel like.

Knowing the difference between to/too/two isn't exactly academic writing either lmao.

I find the grammar police annoying usually, just thought calling someone "not to smart" was too ironic not to say something. 

6 minutes ago, Rodney said:

Also, if you would care to read I originally stated that Snider was the only hope in the north, so please redirect your tears to the guy that thinks they won't make it out of the sectional, he isn't to smart but he has a lot of heart.

Too* 

Not a great look messing that up when attacking someone else's intelligence. 

8 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Dwenger?? How many games have you seen them play this year? I will guarantee you that Dwenger is not winning that sectional. Snider waxed them 28-0 3 days ago at Dwenger in a game that easily could have been 42-0. Snider will easily beat Dwenger again in the sectional and have to deal with likely North Side in the sectional final. 

Not disagreeing with you, but last year Snider beat Dwenger by 11 only to get double-upped by them in the sectional. Beating a team twice in a month is hard to do. 

10 minutes ago, Piratefan101 said:

Snider right now would lose to merrillville by 7-10

Highly debatable. Thankfully we'll likely get to see how it plays out in a few weeks. 

I'll go with Carroll. I think they're the best team outside of Indy this year but we will see. 

6A will be a fun watch this year. Really wide open IMO. Some quick thoughts: 

Elkhart is solid but I'd be shocked if they got to the semistate. I think Carroll, Penn, and CP are all better than them. Will be interesting to see who gets a shot at Indy in semistate.

Who represents the North in 6A? Carmel, Fishers, HSE, or a surprise? Can Westfield defend their semistate title and make a run? 

Brownsburg - BD is obviously really interesting because of all the storylines; regular season rematch, postseason rematch from last year, BD's QB now playing in this game after being out week 1, the playoff monkey on Brownsburg's back... Definitely the biggest first round game in the entire state IMO. 

Cathedral - Can they win a regional in 6A? Came really close last time they were in the class. BD or Brownsburg will be tough. 

CG - Warren: Close game to start the season but the teams have gone different directions since then. Does CG win handily this time? Or can Warren pull the upset in the rematch? 

1 minute ago, Footballking16 said:

I know it's not your wording. You questioned whether or not 05 Lowell or Northwood, 21 WeBo and State runner-ups such Zionsville, Luers, CG, Northridge, Kokomo, and LaPorte would have made qualified for the postseason. I'm telling you that unequivocally yes, all those teams would have qualified for a postseason format that effectively cut the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season using a rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS.

You also said, "the existence of one team that has made a deep postseason run that would not have otherwise made it outside of an all-in formula is enough to justify the all-in formula. End of story."

I'll ask again, please provide an example of a team that has gone on a deep postseason run that wouldn't have made the postseason under a qualifying format?

Do we know those are the criteria for an all-in formula? Just because you make up a criteria in hindsight where you claim they all would have qualified does not mean they would've at the time. The truth is you CAN'T guarantee all these teams would've made it. And I ask again, what is really the point of cutting the field just in half? Why not in quarters, etc? The truth is the all-in sorts everything out anyway. The cream always rises. 

1 minute ago, Bobref said:

And here I thought we were talking about what’s best, not what’s expedient.

Being the best and being the most expedient are not mutually exclusive.  

Just now, Footballking16 said:

Northwood was a top 15 Sagarin team in 3A the year they went 3-6 and won the state title. They would have qualified for any postseason format that effectively cut the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season, and been comfortably in. Beating Chatard was definitely an upset, no dispute there, but they weren't some longshot team that had no business being in the state tournament. They were a smaller enrollment school playing in a predominantly larger class conference who played a bunch of teams close.

 

All the teams you listed in the above mentioned post would have qualified for a postseason format that effectively cut the field in half using a rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS despite finishing the regular season with losing records. My argument was never that bottom half teams haven't upset top half rated teams, other than it was extremely rare. You made the unfounded argument that any bottom half team that makes a "deep tournament run" justifies the all-in. I'm asking for an example of a bottom half rated team that has gone on a "deep tournament run". I've yet to come across a single case of this in the nearly decade I've been tracking such data. Cinderella's don't exist in high school football. 

I never brought up "bottom half rated" at all. That is your wording and I have not once used it. Again though, you said yourself it has happened.  

1 minute ago, Bobref said:

Aahh… Resort to ad hominem. Probably the surest indicator of the loser in any debate.

It's hard not to when you're such a complete blowhard about everything lmao. And it was just a piece of friendly advice, but if the shoe fits...

5 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Aahh… Resort to ad hominem. Probably the surest indicator of the loser in any debate.

And the IHSAA seems to agree with me, so take your imaginary online forum victory, while I'll take my real life victory. 

8 minutes ago, Bobref said:

No, it’s not. Beginning of a better story.

It is though. If you're really ok with the thought that a former state champ might not have qualified you don't actually want the best football. It's ok Bob, you don't always have to be the smartest guy in the room. Guys who feel the need to be never are anyway...

8 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

If you used any kind of rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS to cut the field in half at the end of the regular season all those teams are in with relative ease. All 4-5 teams aren't built equally. Northwood was a top 15 Sagarin rated team in 3A the year they won heading into the playoff at 3-6.

Is that actually true, or is it just the benefit of hindsight that these teams definitely would've been in? Of course every 5-4, 4-5 team etc isn't built the same. Thankfully we have the all-in playoff to determine that. 

1 minute ago, Footballking16 said:

Provide an example of a team rated outside the top half of the field that has made a deep postseason run. I've done this exercise for almost 10 years running. Cinderella in Indiana High School football is a myth, it doesn't exists. Teams rated outside the top half of a rating system such as Sagarin that advance under the current climate do so by virtue of drawing another team rated outside the top half of the field. There has to be a winner in this instance. Instances where a team from outside the top half upsets a top half team is extremely rare, as in you only need one hand to count the number of times its happened. I've yet to come across a team rated outside the top half of the field in all the years I've been tracking this data that has gone on a "deep tournament run". 

I never claimed anything about the "top half of the field". That was you. If we are only cutting the tournament field in half what's the point of qualification anyway? And either way, you just claimed teams from the bottom half HAVE upset teams from the top half. So there goes your own argument. 

1 minute ago, Bobref said:

Pick any formula you want that combines both W-L record and strength of schedule. Harbin, Massey, whatever. And if “infallibility” was a pre-condition to any attempt at improvement, we’d still be living in caves.

The existence of one team that has made a deep postseason run that would not have otherwise made it outside of an all-in formula is enough to justify the all-in formula. End of story. 

Just now, Bobref said:

If you use a formula like Sagarin’s, yes you can. Not even close.

Yeah, because everyone agrees with Sagarin and the ratings are 100% infallible, right? 

17 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Please identify the multiple state champs who would not have qualified for post season play under a format that includes 50% of the teams in each class, determined by a formula that recognizes a combination of W-L record and strength of schedule.

05 Lowell + NorthWood, '21 WeBo. Multiple teams that have played for a state title (Zionsville, Leurs, CG, Northridge, Kokomo, LaPorte most recently). That's just off the top of my head. You can't guarantee any of these teams would've made it 100%. 

We've seen below .500 teams win state multiple times. Some might have made the playoffs in a qualifier format, others not. You're not going to be perfect either way but don't let great be the enemy of good. I think the current system works just fine. 

2 minutes ago, NPCougarNation said:

While I disagree with this statement because Soth Putnam is better than Covenant, but these 3 schools are in the same sectional so Lutheran will take care of 2 of them right off

Comment is from 5 months ago lol. Obviously South Put has played better than projected and Covenant has played worse. 

On 10/3/2022 at 10:19 AM, scarab527 said:

Some suggestions for games just by looking at Harrell's game capsules:

Hammond Central @ Gary West Side West Side

Evansville Memorial @ Vincennes Lincoln Memorial

Eastbrook @ Madison Grant  Madison Grant

Cincy Elder @ Roncalli Roncalli

Westfield @ Fishers Westfield 

River Forest @ Calumet Calumet  

Park Tudor @ Covenant Christian Park Tudor 

North Judson @ LaVille Judson

Martinsville @ Moorseville  Moorseville

Leo @ Columbia City Columbia City

Hamilton Heights @ Lewis Cass Hamilton Heights 

1 hour ago, wvigo13 said:

Yes, we'll just roll with the those. I haven't had time to look so we will go with those games.

Cool, I did put down 11 games (not sure if you wanted to keep it to 10 like we have been doing). 

First, I'd go with Norwell. A lot of people in the FW area said they'd be good but they've been completely dominant. They've only given up 28 points so far this entire season. They'll have a shot at Chatard in the Regional and I think they'll give the Trojans everything they can handle. 

In the Region, I'll go with CP. Many of us knew they'd be much-improved from last season but I don't think many thought they'd knock off Merrillville. If they can beat Jeff, a potential Regional match-up with likely Carroll or Penn is very interesting. Props to Buzea and his staff for getting this turnaround going so fast.  

5 minutes ago, temptation said:

Yes, I have and while you are likely correct you make Merrillville so easy to root against.  I hope you don't speak for the entire program though I am afraid you might based on your comments earlier this season of the team "thinking they are a lock for state."

No program has accomplished less but gets talked about so much on here.

Trust me when I say a vast majority of their fans are like this. They have to be in the top 5 most-delusional fan bases in the entire state. 

6A: Hard to say at this point but Brownsburg has been extremely impressive. What they did to Zionville this week was eye-popping. But I think many of us are still skeptical of them because they've looked impressive in previous years only to falter come tournament time. A Sectional rematch with BD and likely Cathedral in the Regional and then CG in Semistate projects as an absolutely brutal path to LOS. 6A South is always a meat grinder, but this year feels like it is even more so than usual. In the North, hard to bet against an Indy donut team but I'm looking forward to seeing how CP/Carroll/Penn fair in the semi-state. There's a possibility of an all-HCC 6A title game, or no HCC team making it at all. The most parity we've probably seen in 6A since its inception. 

5A: The deeper we get into this season the more-strongly I think whoever gets out of Sectional 12 will win this class. Snider looks to be the best team but a potential rematch with North Side will be tough. In the South, I think Whiteland is the best team by a pretty decent margin. The most disappointing class in the state by far. Give me Snider to win it all. 

4A: I think the only team that can beat New Pal in this class is Roncalli. But I think if Roncalli beats them in the Regional then a team like East Central could potentially give the Royals trouble in the Semistate. NorthWood seems like it is by far the best team in 4A North but only beating Mishawaka by 8 makes me think that they're not anywhere near the level of whoever comes out of 4A South. When will a public from 4A North win state again? The last to do so was Lowell in 2005. 

3A: Chatard was penciled in as champions by nearly everyone (including me) before the season started, but now that isn't looking so clear. Their sectional isn't the Sectional of Death anymore but with Guerin and Oak Hill in it the Trojans likely won't coast through it. Norwell has been incredibly impressive, even though they haven't played the best competition they've ran roughshod through it and have only given-up an absurd 28 points so far this season. I think they'll give Chatard all they can handle in the Regional. A date with West Lafayette for the right to go to LOS likely awaits the winner of that match-up. In the South, I picked Tri-West before the season but no denying Gibson Southern has been very impressive so far in their defense of their 3A title. At this point I think they're the best team in 3A South. However, I think the 3 best teams in this class reside in the North, so whoever out of WL, Norwell, and Chatard makes it out I'll go with to win the whole thing.