OlMarksmenTiger

A man once said football is like the stock market....it's silly to talk about past success. A man then also used a lot past history of players and teams now gone to make a point. A man then rightly suggested letting current evidence direct the opinions, but while also referencing coach's past football success. At the end of the day, these early starting rankings are mostly smoke and mirrors of last years success and program reputation, with just a hint of knowledge about returning players, next in line players, and early results. Week 2 may help us a little. I have a lot of question marks relative to my opinions of the area teams from years of first hand observation of this age group, especially SIAC. Question Marks for me: Castle: Genuinely I don't understand the high ranking in this poll or others. Wasn't expecting a strong returning group from a 6-4 team and haven't seen anything otherwise yet. The North game doesn't do it for me and I am not sure enough about MD yet to know if this week will tell us anything, but I think it will. North: Knowing what personnel coming up this year for North, I already had doubts they would repeat last years success. So the Castle game just confirms that for me if my doubts about Castle are confirmed. We will see how it plays out against Memorial this week. Will they be able to keep Memorial offense off the field with 88% run play ball control or change their previous game plan. Gibson Southern: I appreciate all of Titan32's points to be optimistic and I agree with them. I expect them to reload to some extent every year and be a formidable opponent. The question is how formidable. I thought going into this year it would be tough to replace their defense from last year. Regarding the FC game and considering FC having a break out year with a veteran group last year, I personally have my doubts if FC has been able to truly reload, in spite of their current ranking. So the GS/FC game is a question mark for me and I think the FC ranking is based on last years results and the bump up winning against Gibson Southern reputation. We will see how FC does against Whiteland this week. I am not sure what the Week 2 game against St. Pius X with tell us, unless they beat GS handily. I appreciate the hyperbole of accolades to the returning St. Pius X team and players, but they would be a 1A school in Indiana with only 300 students. I would expect GS to be able to beat the Indiana 1A state champion year in and year out. Time will tell.

Is it straight up winners or are you using the points?

I agree and I am familiar with the history. When I wrote it, I though it was a stretch to overlap the timelines as much as I did for the strong program vs not so strong for the 3 programs mentioned. That's why I said "over all" was not, meaning the 80's and beyond. There was not much success after him, which also supports, my main point.

This could be quite the societal discussion. It could be argued the higher percentages of German heritage in the south and Polish heritages in the Northwest in those blue areas could also be a factor if just looking for correlation. But ultimately, I believe it is good coaches that can make a program is the primary factor. If they have a stable or growing community geared toward service and involvement that can feed a tradition, that gives them a playing field above other communities that may be stagnant or dwindling. Catholic communities don't have a monopoly on such environments, but I believe the data would show they would be skewed on the demographic spectrum toward the more stable and supportive families and communities. Then adding in the the random genetic athletic roll of the dice from year to year, you can get sometimes get greatness when you were already good. Just looking at the historical results of the southwest blue counties in your map, I would say Gibson, Perry and southern Spencer are opposite sides of the tale. In the 70's/80'searly 90's, I would consider South Spencer and Tell City as perennial strong programs, while Gibson Southern over all was not. The opposite is true now. I would say observing first hand, coaching changes was a big influence in that and coupled with those areas also having the opposite stories in regards to the population retention or growth, it paints the picture. Meanwhile, north Spencer and Dubois county communities keep moving right along consistently.

I have already heard from local Gibson County folks that you're looking good with the new faces. And the projected QB will be throwing the ball all over the place.

If you want to try to connect the match ups of last years games with who you return. FC beat Evansville North 15-10 in Sectional. Memorial beat them 21-0 last year. FC beat Castle 49-14 in Sectional. Memorial beat them 37-7 two weeks prior. Memorial will be better this year. Memorial has some spots to fill this year, but I think the key area to see who steps up is 2 to 3 spots in the line rotations on OL and DL. I think everywhere else will be as good or better than last years team. They return a lot. Quite a few, relatively speaking, sophomores started and contributed a lot of minutes on last years team. You'll have plenty of games to watch by the time week 8 rolls around to see where they are.

Sounds like you are trying to apply the points earned to remain in a class when the Success Factor had not been achieved. My understanding is teams will follow their enrollment until they have been moved up by Success Factor. Then the points will matter if they will need to remain up or fall to enrollment.

Probably so. I do believe it was the Northview coach that made the sectional comment about scheduling Memorial game in 2019.

Here's my WAY TO EARLY predictions for next years SIAC standings. Of course there will be 9 months of weight room, maturing, and probably transfers, but this is my take on what I see leaving and returning to varsity as well as what I saw in the JV games. Actual OMT Prediction 2025 Win Loss 2026 1 Memorial 9 0 1 Memorial 2 North 7 2 2 Jasper 3 Jasper 7 2 3 Reitz 4 Castle 6 3 4 North 5 Reitz 6 3 5 Mater Dei 6 Mater Dei 4 5 6 Castle 7 Vincennes 3 6 7 Harrison 8 Harrison 2 7 8 Central 9 Central 1 8 9 Bosse 10 Bosse 0 9

Haven't seen any other schedule announcements. Vincennes had Memorial Week 8. Looking at Memorial's Eventlink Calendar schedule, they still have Vincennes shown as a game for 2026 for that week. That may be just because they haven't updated it with someone new yet. Or Memorial may keep them as a non-conference since they are in Sectional 32. Memorial added Northview to schedule when they moved to 4A sectional 24 in 2019.

I'm just saying I think GS will be ready and extra fired up. If you don't think so that's fine. As far as ridiculous, GS has a starting DB that went to a Memorial feeder grade school. I am pretty sure I saw him running around at those games in Blue. He knows them and the history.

It's a coin toss. After Round 1, the computers seemed to have balanced everything out. Sagarin is basically a wash. My take Harrell is giving GS 1 point for being home. My opinion, Gibson Southern wins because: 1. Their O-Line. I listened to the HH game on the radio. The commentators acted like Foster really changed his performance as the game went on and made things happen. I finally went back and watched it. My view was the O-line began dominating the HH front. The holes Foster was running through were cavernous. They made the HH defense look sluggish and slow. They wore HH down. It was a disservice to those big boys not giving credit where due in live action, but that is the life of a lineman. 2. Although the GS upperclassmen, were barely entering Jr. High the last time these teams played, I would think they are well aware of Memorial coming into the Jewell 3 consecutive years to end the season of very good GS teams 2016-2018 before moving on to 4A. They knocked HH down already this year, I am sure they are ready to do the same to Memorial. 3. Memorial offense has been inconsistent at times this year with execution and penalties. I've never seen a team get so many TD's called back for penalties, while the infraction not really aiding in the play outcome. If the law of averages align to the negative side, it will be tough to overcome. Memorial wins because: 1. Their Defense. The starters only allowed MD, Reitz, and Castle to score. (5 TD's (3,1,1) total all season) The Reitz TD was inconsequential at the end of the game. Castle had one big 4th down pass play very well executed. Castle actually had negative yards rushing for the game. The offense will play just good enough, but the defense will be key. If GS score 3 TD's or more, they win I think. 2. It's tough to pick against a John Hurley Memorial team during the tournament. I have seen rabbits out of the hat many times. Already showed one earlier this season against MD. He nearly always finds a way. But if he doesn't, congrats to the winner. There has only been 1 time in the last 8 years that a Memorial loss in tournament wasn't to the eventual state champion. I expect this to be a fantastic game. If it is not, GS wins. I don't expect the Memorial offense to be able to run away with this one, but the defense will hold.

Looks pretty good. I think they are going to need that hype. Do you know if the GS/Vincennes game will be streamed tonight? Don't see anything in IHSAATV, but the TOC Sports Network that did Vincennes/Jasper last week has on their website, although saying TBA, a potential link ready to go.

I've seen most of the Memorial JV games, missed Central and Reitz.. As far as Memorial JV, there will be no fewer than half a dozen players each game that will wear a number of a varsity player and not their own number that is on the Varsity roster. Various reasons, but the main one I think is the JV games are a different set of jerseys than those worn in Varsity games and they do not have their number for whatever reason. Then there is tendency to try a new number if it is an option. I heard Central had a number of varsity players play first half. I thought Harrison had some repeat players also. Didn't really notice anything excessive, but didn't see Reitz.

Evansville North is also ranked all 3 polls. Mater Dei is also ranked in all 3 polls with a losing record. So I would say the conference is is fairly highly respected. Or 3A is deemed fairly weak past the top teams. Castle and Reitz just dropped out I think.

Is there any thing especially different about them this year? My perception is L-burg is always a strong program and expect to see them coming out the far east. They have been able to break through a couple of times to get to State, but I think mainly their strong teams usually take their East Central beating each year and then make a undefeated run after that as far as there match up with the southwest area regional opponent. What's there for extra love this year? I will say my elementary school age son that goes down the interweb rabbit holes of maxpreps, etc.. sports research, specifically asked me about L-burg and has no desire to face them this year.

I believe Luers is a 2A school that has only won 2A championships. They lost last year in 3A to Heritage Hills.

I think unlikely, but possible. 5A Sectional 16: Obstacle: Floyd Central 5-1, schedule looks to be weak up to this point. No wins over team with winning record. Historical difficulty getting past Castle or North. I say Castle makes it through. 4A Sectional 24: Obstacle: Heritage Hills, can Jasper or Reitz bring enough? Don't think so at this point. 3A Sectional 32: Obstacle Gibson Southern, Great win vs Heritage Hills, looking tough. But you never count out Hurley/Memorial in tournament time. This seemingly inevitable matchup should be a great one if it happens.

I saw Jasper Week 1 vs Memorial. It was a running clock game, but not really. They stumbled out of the blocks and were unlucky every turn. Penalties, unfortunate turnovers, near every marginal call going the other way. I told my Jasper acquaintances that Memorial should be glad they got them week 1. I thought most of what went wrong could get cleaned up quickly and they should be a tough out late in the season. Not sure it would have made difference vs Memorial. Not sure they have enough to improve to get past HH.

Memorial Watermelon scrimmage was well attended. They were definitely easing into the playbook. I did hear they may have had a prescripted run of plays for each set. I felt it was like they were hiding everything from opposing scouts that may be in attendance. A lot to be optimistic about. Luke Brown starting at QB is the big key spot replacement. In my opinion, he has taken a huge leap forward from last year and will surprise some people. Looking forward to see what is shown tonight in Castle scrimmage.

It is showing up on the Memorial football event calendar.

That's because they were doing it for years since 3rd grade at Good Shepherd in the Memorial feeder league. That's where I first saw the "when in doubt throw the jump ball to Branson" plays.

I believe Branson on defense was always mainly OLB, not MLB. I think Max Goodwin and McGuire were the main MLB's during Branson's time.

Those definitely are the biggest losses. But the biggest of them all is Fisher. I think that is the biggest question going into the upcoming season. Although definitely not a 1 for 1 swap on the other 2, I think we will find that there will be moves to replace them. By observation of progression, I think you will see more of the new Sophomores stepping up being ready this year. That group has the makings to become legendary eventually, if you haven't seen them yet.

It was a good game and was not too surprising for me except HH made the big passing plays in 1st half that I didn't think they would get. Plus Memorial not finishing the drives early and getting put in a hole. That was the difference in my mind. Goldsberry does look to be more evasive then McCool. I actually think Memorial defense played him well compared to my expectations. His break away run came at end of game in a desperate stop short yardage runs for first down scenario. I thought he would have had one earlier. Good Luck HH. Great game.