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Everything posted by foxbat
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At least WeBo will be in 3A. 😀
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That's not the whole story though. Luers losing? Or CC winning by one because SA went for two? Matter of fact. SA put up more TDs than CC did today ... it took a pair of field goals and a missed XP to do in SA. Or the fact that SA beat the defending state champion by almost five TDs?
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Westfield freshman only beat 5A Harrison 28-21 and that was Harrison freshman's lone loss this season. Is that a Harrison good or a Westfield problem? Not trying to start anything, just trying to gauge from a different perspective as I think that's as close Harrison's teams have been to Westfield in the past. The Raider freshman also thrashed 6A Jeff by three TDs. Also, Harrison's varsity played Roncalli this season and lost 49-45 in a game that had a lead change just about every possession. And their season-ender came via Zionsville who will be playing later on today in the 5A title.
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Indirectly it can in some classes because there are set numbers of teams in some classes. with 64 teams in 1A and 32 in 6A can change positions in other classes. For example, if LCC moves up in 1A and there are no new teams added to 1A, someone drops down from 2A to give 64 in 1A. Similarly, in 6A, if someone moves up from 5A to 6A, to maintain 32 in 6A, someone would move down. You are correct that you don't move down on points in SF, you could move down because someone else moved up from another class.
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I don't know about Forest Park, but Seeger can make some noise in 1A North ... especially with LCC and Pioneer playing up in 2A for the next cycle.
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It wasn't from SF. 😀 Lord, I apologize for that.
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And 1A Pioneer will also remain in 2A due to SF by gaining 2 points for their regional win this year.
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Westfield put up 14 on them and I think part of the issue for Westfield was that they got shell-shocked early by CG's offense. I think Westfield quickly came off their game trying to close the gap and catch up after that third TD on that pass play. They had a lot of low percentage passes, even though they made some nice catches, and that just played into CG's hands. I think if the score was 14-7 CG going into the half, I'm not sure that 20 against Westfield would have done it.
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The thing that tends to throw off folks isn't so much the math, but the fact that the cycles are set and independent.
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The two-year cycles currently run as odd-start, even-end ... and you need 6 in the cycle to move up. For Pioneer, in the 2015-2016 cycle, while they made it to LOS in 2016 they only had 4 points ... they got 3 points in the loss to Linton and they lost in regionals to LCC in 2015 and only got 1 point. For the 2017-2018 cycle, they racked up 8 points with back-to-back wins at LOS. In the 2019-2020 cycle, they played in 2A due to SF move up. They lost in the first game of sectionals last season and garnered 0 points, but won a regional this season before being beat by Luers in semi-state. The 2 points they picked up for a regional were enough, despite zero last season, to remain in 2A since you need 6 points to move up and just 2 points to stay once you move up.
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If IDOE posted it, I'd give it to you along with the one above. About the closest thing I could find was a stat, a fact sheet, that talks about graduating student class for 2018. There were 35 of 125 were free/reduced lunch. So that gives you 29.60% for Luers just a tad below WeBo and above Woodlan. Note that the number could be higher because it is just a measure of the 2018 students that GRADUATED whose numbers were included. It might be that the numbers are identical, but it's not exact apples-to-apples because these numbers are after-the-fact of only those who graduated while the IDEO numbers are the current state for their numbers and would include those that may not graduate from high school. As such, the IDEO numbers are pretty stable, the Luers numbers are probably close to static, but that depends on non-graduates, if any.
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Luers isn't a public school. Even if you toss in Luers, you have two private schools in six seasons, as opposed to the previous five that referenced ... and they still loss. Of course, if we are using this season too, then my statement about WeBo's two back-to-back appearances changes to three back-to-back appearances and wins. I'm not seeing Luers in the previous 5 years in 2A:
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That's the sweet spot for 2A public schools. Public schools that have played at LOS for the last decade and the F/RL percentage: Woodlan* 27.63% WeBo* 32.42% Monrovia* 33.09% Tipton 33.55% Eastbrook* 34.42% North Putnam 37.44% Southridge* 39.00% RCHS ** 41.09% Whiting * 62.07 * Public schools that played at LOS without a PP opponent ** Public schools that played at LOS with a PP and won BTW, for all of the talk about PP dominance, especially in the wake of SF, before this season, the previous five seasons in 2A have seen one PP team in those five years ... all the rest have been public schools including two appearances by WeBo and two by Eastbrook back-to-back. And Eastbrook was there three times in that five-year period.
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Don't worry ... I'm SURE there will be a reason why a three-time repeating state champion is considered a damsel in distress against the big old bad PP dragon. Reminds me of the restaurant owner who eventually has to close his restaurant and just can't figure out why he's not getting any traffic he thinks he should be getting. A consultant he hires to do postmortem gets hold of the reviews and says, "What'd you do to address these complaints? Sixty-five percent of the reviews are less than four-star." The owner replies, "Yeah, I take those out because then my average jumps up to over four stars. People love the restaurant." As Bill Engvall would say,
