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Alduflux

Booster 2023-24
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Posts posted by Alduflux

  1. The SIAC took a big hit in Sagarin this week

     

    SOUTHERN INDIANA
    CONF.
    RANK
    STATE
    RANK
    TEAM OVERALL
    RATING
    SCHEDULE
    STRENGTH RANK
    RECENT
    RATING   RANK
    PREDICTOR
    RATING   RANK
    1 28 Evansville Reitz 79.55 58.05 75 78.41 28 78.41 34
    2 58 Evansville Memorial 71.88 59.90 66 77.05 36 67.62 70
    3 63 Evansville Mater Dei 70.38 57.99 77 70.62 60 69.25 65
    4 69 Castle 68.10 59.08 71 66.27 73 69.72 63
    5 72 Jasper 66.73 60.68 59 69.87 64 62.43 88
    6 84 Vincennes Lincoln 64.03 59.81 68 61.00 94 69.39 64
    7 89 Evansville North 63.32 64.12 45 61.80 92 64.94 81
    8 151 Evansville Harrison 48.39 66.24 35 46.21 151 49.65 148
    9 188 Evansville Bosse 40.57 65.89 37 44.13 160 35.25 206
    10 241 Evansville Central 27.31 64.78 43 23.01 249 30.64 226
  2. The Sagarin top ten by predictor are as follows after week 7

    1 Reitz

    2 VL

    3 Castle

    4 Mater Dei

    5 E North

    6 Memorial

    7 Brownsburg

    8 Jasper

    9 Evansville Harrison

    10 Center Grove

     

    Bosse and Central need to start carrying their weight and kick those paperweights Brownsburg and CG out of the top ten.  I can't imagine why anyone would think the SIAC is weighted incorrectly. 😁

    • Haha 1
  3. 7 hours ago, scarab527 said:

    Yes, we all know that Sagarin cannot compare closed conferences until they play noncon opponents. That doesn't explain why two closed conferences are being treated so differently. This just shows the problem has been ongoing. The fact that it was reversed last year makes it even more bizarre. 

    Closed conferences should be treated differently.  Case in point, a closed conference of the mega football schools (Cathedral, Center Grove, etc) should not have the same strength of schedule as a closed conference of 1a schools.  Sagarin is probably using some aspect of last years playoff results to weight the conferences.  The SAC did not have as much playoff success in 2021 as in 2020.  The SIAC did better in 2021 then in 2020.  The "switching" of their conference strength is probably related to playoff performance.  No it is not perfect but unfortunately the only way to connect the conferences in season is to use something from last year to compare them.

    The fact it was reversed is explained by the difference in playoff performance changing from 2020 to 2021

  4. As others have stated Sagarin cannot compare teams that are not connected.  Both conferences will not be connected until the playoffs.  Last year the same happened only in reverse.  The SAC was over-weighted during the season and the SIAC was under-weighted.  Playoff results will have outsized influence on both conferences final rating.

    Last year's rankings for both conferences top five teams were as follows:

                             After week 9                           After state

    SAC                3,8,11,12,19                                20,48,60,68,70     (yes, Sagarin thought 5 of the top 20 regular season teams were in the SAC)

    SIAC               65, 83, 88, 113, 137                  25, 26, 31, 44, 69

     

    One year ago there was a discussion on this board about why the SAC was valued so highly.

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  5. Sagarin has made a significant adjustment to the weighting of the SIAC relative to years past.  The following is a chart showing the rankings of the 1st, 2nd, 9th, and 10th ranked teams after games 9 and state.  The current season ranking has the SIAC in line with where they have finished in the final rankings after state the past two years.

     

                  After game 9                 Final ranking after state.

    2020      80:137:289:308                  21:38:213:255  

    2021      65:83:240:244                   25:26:148:150

    2022      20:21:163:166  (rankings after game 5)

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  6. Three games in and only one team is undefeated.

    Regarding rankings:  Philosophically there are two ways to rank teams. 

    One is forward thinking.  Which team is best if they played today and or moving forward? 

    The other is past thinking.  Which is best based on body of work?  (Team A beat B who beat C)  Both type of ranking systems have merit.

    The schedule three weeks in happens to fit in such a way that every team can be ranked with a "past looking" system in which every team can be ranked with the teams they defeated below them and the teams that beat them ranked above them.  That ranking is as follows:  (And for the record I prefer a forward looking ranking system)

    Reitz

    VL

    MD

    Castle

    North

    Harrison

    Jasper

    Memorial/Bosse (These two only share Central as a common opponent so no one really knows who is better.)🤣

    Central

     

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