temptation

Thanks for board member @hhpatriot04, I thought it may be a worthwhile project to take a look at the last 25 years of Sagarin data and throw some things together to generate some discussion as we await the season. What I have done is taken the last 25 years of Sagarin data (1999-2023) and taken a look at the CURRENT 32 6A schools regardless of prior classification or enrollment and ranked them by average overall Sagarin data over that time period. What I did for Elkhart (consolidated now) was average Central and Memorial’s data from those years prior to consolidation. Obviously Fishers was not a school prior to 2006 so they only have 18 years of data. State champions are highlighted in green. The second screenshot is a listing of the top 25 6A programs over this time period according to Sagarin. Teams in green on this sheet won the state championship while teams in red did not. Enjoy!

Both 2014 and 2015 go to the 2015 rankings. EDIT: Nevermind, got em.

Great point in paragraph one. How dare Penn prioritize being an academic institution posing as an athletic powerhouse opposed to the other way around? Indy mega schools have no shame. They don’t even hide it anymore.

Don’t think we have the same definition of “stacked/stocked.” Warren has 4-5 D1 guys on defense and another 1-2 that’ll play at the lower level. Now that being said, Snider ran all over them last year and these are the same guys coming back so take that for what it’s worth. Nah, I’ve been in wait and see mode on Brownsburg for 2 years now. Nothing they do in August or September can impress me.

Not disputing point #3 but to my earlier point, Warren has 4-5 “massive tests” on the schedule…Snider has 2. As @Komets2727 has reminded us frequently, I underestimated Snider last year and won’t make that mistake again. However, I think that week #1 is much more important to Snider than it is Warren. Warren is pretty stacked on the defensive side of the ball and has two new “unproven” players at the two most important offensive positions so catching them in week #1 may be to Snider’s benefit.

Brownsburg has broken me Bob.

Gotcha.

Running back AND linebacker?

I would not say 4 decades. 2.5 tops. And yes, those gaps have already closed. Hell, it’s been stated on this thread that if one were asked to rank Hamilton County’s programs today, Carmel would be 4th. I have proclaimed the HCC as the future for a half decade now and always end up with egg on my face in November. I am going to remain subdued this time around. With BD/Warren likely starting the season 1-2 in some order, maybe THIS is the year someone else surprises? I was all about Brownsburg and Cathedral the last couple of years so maybe the reverse psychology plays a role this year, lol? O’Shea seemed like the guy at NC, until he didn’t. No clue what happened there.

NC is undergoing a massive renovation to their facilities currently. Could this be a big step in the right direction?

Discussed earlier. NC is loaded in the country club sports and had a legendary basketball coach that was adamant about his athletes being on the hardwood year round. NC had a couple of good years under O’Shea that just happened to coincide with their basketball coach hanging em up…makes you wonder.

I know this analogy has been made on here before and it pains me to say it, but the MIC is the high school version of the SEC. They are invested and have many built in advantages that have been discussed as nauseam on this forum. Does not mean an HCC school/Snider/Penn/other school CAN’T or WON’T break through, it’s just one hell of a steep climb. Above, it was discussed how the Clemson’s and Bama’s of the world have come back to the field and NIL was credited as a main reason why. Hell, a Big Ten school won the title this year but it was a generational team from Ann Arbor that did it. A fellow Big Ten school has gone ALL IN this season, reportedly spending $30 million on their roster for this upcoming season. Not to be naive, but SEC schools have done that forever…similar to how MIC schools have been “all in” (see my points above) forever. It’s going to take a generational team from outside of the “MIC 4” to dethrone them.

There’s 15 teams that can beat PENN on a given night, let’s be clear.

1. Indy schools are never wide eyed when the tournament starts because they are tested more so than any other geographical area of the state. 2. For the most part, Indy schools boast an enrollment advantage with a few exceptions. 3. Coaches at Indy schools have been hired as coaches first and teachers second for decades. Their job is to win football games so their building schedule is laughable in most cases. They eat, breathe, and sleep football for 8+ hours per day. Administrators don’t even hide it anymore. 4. Indy is the population hub of the state which is why the suburban schools have also joined the conversation and in some instances surpassed the Marion County schools. “Passion?” While I am sure that may be accurate, I’d put that well down the list of Moore’s best attributes. Every football coach has “passion” right? I mean, you are talking 60+ hour work weeks away from your family in many instances so you’d better be passionate about it. If I am wrong about Moore, let me know @Bash Riprock.

Westfield sorta already has. It’s time for Fishers/HSE. They have D1 talent. Nah, it’s Penn being stuck in the past and a lack of regular season competition along with poor youth leagues. That’s what the Penn posters on here have implied anyway. The Kingsmen are pretty damn good in most country club sports.

I mean, I think that teams like Avon, LC and FC will be much improved but the win/loss record simply won’t be all that impressive. Stated I think LN is about as close as I will come to picking a surprise/sleeper. I am really intrigued by the HCC this year. By no means has Brownsburg’s window closed but they’ve had their chance and failed repeatedly in the postseason. I’m ready to give someone else a chance.

We still doing this? How’s everyone see the HCC/MIC shaking out? My thoughts: HCC: Tier 1: Brownsburg, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Westfield Tier 2: Avon, Franklin Central, Noblesville. Zionsville MIC: Tier 1: Ben Davis, Center Grove, Warren Central Tier 2: Carmel, Lawrence North Tier 3: Lawrence Central Tier 4: North Central, Pike

I feel confident in Michigan’s future. Might not win a January game this year with all of the transition. 9-10 wins likely.

Kid committed to ND in December and Harbaugh took his position coach to the Chargers in February. Chess not checkers. Kid must’ve wanted to win a meaningful game in January is my guess…

I’m honestly not sure if you are being serious or this is satire.

That’s awesome. Lemme take a deeper look later today. I’ll take 6A.

So Saban at Edinburgh…

Or play at the next level in another sport.

Well, coming up with something on the fly here but 2000-2024 is a solid 25 year period where maybe it’d be cool to run some numbers. Maybe a top 20-25 by class over that time period? A top 25 all-time list? A list of each team’s best team ranked where each school can only appear on the list once? An average by school of every team they’ve put on the field the last 25 years? The possibilities are endless.

You just put steak in front of a dog. Thanks my man!