HoopsCoach

9 hours ago, Indiana Fan said:

3 out of 4 of these conferences are under 8 schools. This is perfect from a football standpoint in allowing availability for non conference matchups. It’s too bad something like this couldn’t be developed in the future. What are your thoughts? Where did I go wrong? What changes could be made? Are there other schools that could fit? Only 5 more months until football season!!!

AD’s love 8 team conferences because they only have to work to schedule 2 non-conference games, which is enough games to satisfy coaches that want a little control over their schedule.  7 teams is not ideal but could be worse, and anything less than 7 seems to create frustration for both AD’s and coaches.  That being said, I think 6 team conferences are perfect.  5 conference games plus 4 non conference.  One should be a game your team expect to win, 1 should be a game you should expect to lose unless you play incredibly well, and 2 should be “toss ups” that could go either way and prepare you for the state tournament.

Looking at the Indy area, 6 team conferences for the 6A/large 5A schools could be split pretty close to what you’ve suggested.  My choices would be  Carmel, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Noblesville, Westfield, and Zionsville in the Hoosier Crossroads North.  Then the Hoosier Crossroads South becomes Avon, Brownsburg, Center Grove, Columbus North, Franklin Central, and Southport.  The MIC goes with the 6 remaining members - Ben Davis, Lawrence Central, Lawrence North, North Central, Pike, and Warren Central.

If Carmel and Center Grove can figure out a way to be adults again, these 3 conferences can help each other by playing 2 crossover games.  Each school would play 1 opponent from the other 2 conferences. That leaves open 2 games to play out-of-state opponents, Cathedral, Penn, FW schools, or smaller schools in the Indy area if they prefer.

The Mid-State has been a solid, competitive conference, but if we are throwing out their happiness, it could also become separate conferences of 6 teams.  Throw in some of the Hoosier Heritage and it could look a little like the 6A conferences I previously mentioned.

Mid-State West could be Bloomington North, Bloomington South, Martinsville, Mooresville, Terre Haute North, and Terre Haute South.  Then the Mid-State East is Decatur Central, Franklin, Greenwood, Perry Meridian, Plainfield, and Whiteland.  The Hoosier Heritage then joins the group with Greenfield-Central, Mount Vernon, New Castle, New Palestine, Pendleton Heights, and Shelbyville.  

The HHC waves good-bye to Delta and Yorktown who join a new conference of Anderson, Delta, Marion, Muncie Central, Richmond, and Yorktown.

I meant to say Culver Academies as the 6th school in the private school division, with Blackhawk Christian as an alternative option.

10 hours ago, XStar said:

Not sure why St. Joe or Marian would want to join a conference of 6A schools either.  

I think Mishawaka is a good fit in the NLC.  Don't see them leaving for anything else at this point.

I like a conference of Penn, Elkhart, Warsaw, Homestead, and Carroll.  I just can't find any other schools that make sense to pair with them.  

New Conference: Penn, Elkhart, Warsaw, Homestead, Carroll, FW Snider, FW Northrop.  6 conference games, leaving 3 open weeks for non-conference games to maintain existing rivalries and play against opponents that fit the competitive level of each team (or cherry pick an easy win).

NLC: Concord, Goshen, Mishawaka, New Prairie, Northridge, NorthWood, Plymouth, Wawasee.

Summit Athletic - Public Division: SB Adams, SB Riley, SB Washington, FW North, FW South, FW Wayne

Summit Athletic - Private Division: SB St. Joseph, Mishawaka Marian, FW Bishop Dwenger, FW Bishop Luers, FW Concordia, FW Blackhawk Christian (this is a stretch, but they will become competitive quickly).

Penn and Elkhart needed to either convince the Duneland schools to take them and expand the conference or put together something new with Homestead, Carroll, and maybe Warsaw.  The time to do it would have been with the Elkhart consolidation, but it’s probably too late now.

On 3/1/2023 at 9:16 AM, Julio said:

Did a little map search on the IHSAA website,  I could see a conference form with the following school:

Glenn, Jimtown, Knox, Culver Academy, Bremen, Rochester, Laville, and Winamac.  Gives you 7 conference games and 2 for rivalries.  1A schools could form a similar conference.

 

It would be a tough sell trying to convince Rochester and Tippecanoe Valley to leave the Three Rivers Conference.  The enrollment gap between the largest schools and smallest schools in the TRC seems to be increasing, but the top 7 schools (including Rochester and Valley) would have basically the same enrollments as the 7 schools that would form a new conference with them (not including Winamac).  The average travel time for Rochester in the TRC is 28.5 miles, and Valley’s average is 27 miles.  In the resurrected Northern State Conference, Rochester’s average travel distance would be 33 miles and Valley would be 32 miles.  And that’s if Winamac is included since they are not far from Rochester.  Here’s the enrollment comparison:

17 hours ago, superjay said:

It’s trending in that direction.  TW, Danville, and Lebanon are growing.  The rest of the conference is stagnant.  The gap is only getting bigger in enrollment.  TW has won 44 straight against the Montgomery county schools.  
Lafayette Jeff might not be interested.  I understand that, but the alternative is wasting your time driving to places like Anderson and Richmond that are only competitive in basketball.  
Even add West Lafayette and Western to make an 8 school conference.  WeBo and Frankfort can replace them in the Hoosier.

 

TW, Danville, and Lebanon really haven’t grown that much, but the gap is increasing because some of the other SAC schools, especially North Montgomery and Southmont, are seeing a decline in enrollment.  Here’s a comparison going back 15 years to 2007-08 and the enrollments from count day this past fall.

School - 2007 Enrollment / 2022 Enrollment

Danville - 811 / 778

Lebanon - 1033 / 1027

Tri-West - 560 / 615

Crawfordsville - 726 / 689

Frankfort - 906 / 895

North Montgomery - 684 / 516

Southmont - 651 / 477

Western Boone - 619 / 556

20 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

If geography was not a consideration, a trade between the NCC and Conference Indiana would be interesting. Something like this:

Conference Indiana: Bloomington North, Bloomington South, Columbus North, Southport, Harrison, Lafayette Jeff, McCutcheon

North Central Conference: Logansport, Kokomo, Marion, Muncie Central, Anderson, Richmond, Terre Haute North, Terre Haute South

9 hours ago, Muda69 said:

If I was an NCC A.D. I wouldn't want to trade travel to/from Harrison, Lafayette Jeff & McCutcheon for travel to/from TH North & South.  

8 hours ago, Gipper said:

I do like the looks of it!  I just can't help but wonder how jazzed the Bloomngtonians would be about coming north quite a bit...and vice versa.

I did say “If geography was not a consideration…”  My suggestion will never happen due in large part to geography.  The similar enrollments, demographics, and strength of competition would make a lot of sense in my opinion, but geography is just too prohibitive for that swap to actually work.

4 hours ago, Gipper said:

I'll put it out there: Lafayette Jeff, Harrison, and McCutcheon.  It makes as much sense or more than the Hautians.  Less travel than in the NCC as the Star City is much closed to our state capitol than Muncie and Richmond.

Those schools tried the HCC and it didn’t work.  I don’t think they would make any more sense for the MIC.  Jeff and McCutcheon seem to fit pretty well in the NCC.  Harrison has been dominant, winning the all-sport championship every year since they joined the conference.  I think the only sport Harrison hasn’t won or been co-champion at least once since they joined is boys basketball, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the emphasis placed on boys basketball by all the other NCC schools.

If geography was not a consideration, a trade between the NCC and Conference Indiana would be interesting. Something like this:

Conference Indiana: Bloomington North, Bloomington South, Columbus North, Southport, Harrison, Lafayette Jeff, McCutcheon

North Central Conference: Logansport, Kokomo, Marion, Muncie Central, Anderson, Richmond, Terre Haute North, Terre Haute South

11 hours ago, Indiana Fan said:

There is a potential for Tech. They definitely need a place to go in a year. 

That’s who I was thinking.  The travel in Conference Indiana isn’t much better than the NCC, but Tech will be looking for a home if they don’t fulfill their dream of ending up in the MIC.  I’m not sure how the Bloomington schools and Columbus North would feel about adding Tech.  Southport would probably welcome Tech since they are close, and the Terre Haute schools should be open to anyone joining just so the conference stays alive.  I don’t think any of the Mid-State Conference schools would see Conference Indiana as a greener pasture.

1 hour ago, Indiana Fan said:

Who is the favorite and what are some things to look for this upcoming season in Conference Indiana? Is there a chance at a state title in the future for this conference?

Used to be regarded as one of the best in the whole state. Now lots of talk about the future of this conference. What is on the horizon? Potentially departures? Potential adding of schools?

Who would they add?

50 minutes ago, temptation said:

I’ve been on the FC/Avon to the MIC train for 2-3 years now but for some reason Avon is anchoring itself to Brownsburg to its own detriment, in my opinion.

Well, if they took Brownsburg with them instead of Franklin Central…

A swap of Carmel/Center Grove for Avon/Franklin Central would make the MIC and HCC almost mirror images of each other by enrollment.  Each of those schools would probably be closer to the demographics of the conference they would move to.  Brownsburg could flip instead of Franklin Central.  Here’s an enrollment comparison using this year’s DOE data.

7 hours ago, temptation said:

Targeting 5 schools…two a shoe in pending principal approval, one unsure, two others a long shot package deal.

Why so cynical @Staxawax?

Since nobody has named them yet (why post about it then?), can I guess?  I have no inside information, just guessing.

2 shoe in’s - Southport and Arsenal Tech

1 unsure - Columbus North

2 package deal longshots- Bloomington North and South

Avon is another school I thought would go into this instead of Tech.

8 hours ago, WalterSobchak said:

How do you know all this

It’s all published annually by the department of education.  I’m originally from that area so I still follow many of those schools.

9 hours ago, Basementbias said:

Glad to hear enrollment has gone up, as that was more of the rumor I heard than economics. I know closing of Pennville Elementary in Jay County was a hope to increase enrollment, but didn't seem like they got as much as they hoped. The rumor was that more kids were deciding to enroll at Bluffton than Southern Wells. How bad does the Montpelier closure hurt Blackford?

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students.  Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students.  That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70.  And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year.  

Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells.  The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford.  The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook.  Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256.  That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year.  Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185.  In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district.

SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37.  Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district.  81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW.  Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160.  Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle).

In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford.  They have a net transfer rate of -281.  270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central.  AC has a net transfer rate of +279.  I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs.  That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams.  SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.

On 1/5/2023 at 9:01 AM, Basementbias said:

This comparison will probably limit most since one school is in Ohio. The comparison is Southern Wells and Parkway (Rockford) OH. Both have been at or near the bottom of their conferences. Each are close to me, and looking for a new coach. 

Southern Wells has a history of success. 2001 1A state champs and probably could have won in 2000 if they didn't blow it to my Jets that became state champs that year. During my HS days they were battling for 1st/2nd/3rd with Heritage & AC as well as Garrett. They ended my career and made it semi state losing to the juggernaut that was/is Sheridan. However in recent times they've struggled to field a varsity team and haven't won much at all. Plus there are rumblings that the school could close.

Parkway is in the mighty MAC that is the best small school football conference in Ohio and one of the best in the country. Parkway won the first conference crown and a couple more after. However that was in the early to mid 70s. It's been downhill ever since. They are the only school in the conference for football without a state title after New Bremen won in 2020 (NB won this year as well). Their schedule is brutal for the conference slate and they've had a tough time making the playoffs. Also seems like they do not have the athletes or enough of them like their conference foes.

So if you were a potential coach, what is the better job? Which is the tougher rebuild?

Southern Wells is not closing and really isn’t in jeopardy of potential closure any time soon.  That was a rumor that got started several years ago by some people in the district who wanted to make sure the tax referendum would pass.  Fear is a common motivator used to drum up votes and when some of the tight wad farmers in the district raised opposition to the referendum, the rumor got started that the school would close if it didn’t pass.  The tax referendum passed then, and it was just renewed in the November election, which will continue to help with funding.  The enrollment at the elementary level has gone up this year with the closure of Montpelier Elementary and there seems to be some optimism that things will get better down the road.

Back to the main topic, SW‘s program has been struggling because they haven’t been able to develop any significant investment from their athletes.  Many choose not to play football, and several who play have little interest in working to get better.  Some certainly do, but not enough to turn the cultural around and get the support they had in the LeFebvre era.  The ACAC does not have anywhere near the depth of the MAC in football, so the opportunity to win games and get athletes to buy in is much more likely at SW.  It’s tough to build belief in the program if the wins don’t come, and Parkway faces a greater challenge to get those wins than SW.

If Parkway was the 8th member of the ACAC, I would be more optimistic that they could win more games than SW.  A move to the ACAC would probably benefit Parkway, and if they aren’t winning enough games in the MAC to get into the tournament in Ohio anyway, what would they have to lose?  At least they could win some games and build some optimism for the future.  That being said, I don’t think a move to an Indiana conference is a realistic possibility.  I know schools from Illinois have played in an Indiana conference, but I’m not familiar with any from Ohio.  Indiana schools could easily do it since we have an all-in tournament.  SW doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for the tournament, so that is one less obstacle to turning their fortunes around.

57 minutes ago, sr1 said:

HoopsCoach, if I remember right Dugger Union was going to play 11 man football this last year and right before the season changed to 8 man football. Do you have any information saying one way or the other what they are doing next year?

 

I don’t know anything for sure about Dugger Union.  I think their goal is to play 11 man football, but if their numbers are low they will do 8 man to keep the program going like they did this past season.  I included Anderson Prep in the enrollment data since they have had a team, but they didn’t play this past season.  I left Greenwood Christian out when I posted this, but they have an enrollment of 201 this year and would be an addition to 1A.

10 hours ago, JQWL said:

Maybe this is a dumb question. Next year's enrollment, 2023-2024, will set the newest classifications for 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Do they use 23-24's grade 9-12 enrollment numbers or do they use grade 8-11 since those are the ones that will begin the new cycle?

Enrollment numbers for grades 9-12 are used.  Not every high school has an 8th grade that directly feeds into their school, so it would be difficult to use 8th grade data.  I think the initial enrollment data used when the transition was made to class basketball only included grades 9-11.

2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

Someone have any inside information on Madison Consolidated? (SE corner of the state.) 

2019- 2020 they were 867 (4A) with over 200 students in each grade.

https://ihsaapublic.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/Enrollments 19202021.pdf

They lost 130 students in enrollment and dropped to 3A with 737. 

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/2022-23 2023-24 Football Alignment.pdf

The numbers above show them at 847. 

I’m sure there’s a logical reason, I just am wondering what causes 20-30 students in each grade to disappear/reappear in the counts. 
 

 

For the two year period of 2020-21 and 2021-22, Madison Consolidated Schools had the E.O. Muncie Jr/Sr High School, which I think was an alternative school, in addition to Madison Consolidated High School.  They reported the enrollment of the alternative school separately from MCHS.  The school had about 75 students last year.  If you add those students into the enrollment of MCHS, it puts the enrollment back at 815, which is in the ballpark of the MCHS enrollment prior to the last two years.  Those are the 20-30 students in each class who disappeared/reappeared.  Their enrollment this year is back up to 200 or so in each class, and they have a pretty large freshman class at 243.

2 hours ago, foxbat said:

Faith Christian was around 232 in the last alignment, but they don't show up in the numbers above since Faith doesn't field/play football.

The trending seems to be pointing toward boundary-locked areas like WL and LSC seeing decreases or, at best, staying even and the more open-boundaried districts, the county schools, showing growth.  It's a small sample size with just two county schools, two "city schools," and two p/p schools, so take the trending with a grain of salt ... especially given that Harrison has a couple of brand-new housing divisions starting to put up house.  Word on the street is that may likely add up to 300-households just between those new housing tracts.

Faith is at 245 this year.

I was also a bit surprised to see Whiteland’s number down quite a bit from their recent trend.  It was nice to see some “new blood” in the 5A and 6A finals this year with Whiteland and Carroll.  Harrison has grown just like those two schools but needs a breakthrough in the tournament to really take the next step with their program.

19 hours ago, foxbat said:

By this count, Harrison has now passed Jeff as the largest school in Tippecanoe County.  In addition, the Jeff number is decreasing and the Harrison number is increasing.  By the time of realignment or the next one after that, Jeff could be classified 5A.  Could provide an interesting mix in 5A.

 

There are several schools right at the 5A/6A split that are within 100 students of each other.  Almost all of them are capable of making a run in 5A but probably don’t go very far in 6A.  Lafayette Jeff’s enrollment has actually been up the last two years from what it was for the previous 10 years of 2012-2021.  They were pretty stagnant at around 1950-2050 students during that 10 year period, but they’ve been over 2100 the last two years.  Harrison’s enrollment stayed right around 1675 from 2007-2012, then took off and has grown pretty steadily since 2013, increasing by about 50 students per year.

14 hours ago, Payne said:

Greenwood Christian also started a football program this year. Their 2022 schedule was a combination of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

2023 schedule shows a full 9 game varsity schedule.

Thanks for the info. I wasn’t sure if GCA was planning to play a full schedule next year but it looks like they are.

2 hours ago, FlyingHigh said:

I’m glad Bellmont dropped AC from their schedule for a number of reasons (don’t have to deal with their idiotic, delusional community), but first and foremost because it allows AC to find someone that might actually make them work a little bit. Garrett doesn’t seem to be that solution but they were far better than Bellmont. 

I think there is a swap of opponents for week 1 that would make sense.  Adams Central and Garrett should trade with Eastbrook and Huntington North.  AC should play Eastbrook and Garrett should play Huntington North.  A few years ago some schools in my area made a swap like that.  Lafayette Jeff was supposed to play Central Catholic and West Lafayette was scheduled to play Tri-West.  After a year, they got together and swapped to have Jeff play West Side and Central Catholic played Tri-West.  Games were close and competitive each year and I think the same would be true for this swap.

46 minutes ago, NE8Fan said:

I would love to see Bellmont join the ACAC.   We would instantly add a couple wins if not more in football and could build off of that success to get more players out.  We would also instantly compete for a conference title in boys basketball, baseball, and softball.  We would be the clear favorite in wrestling and volleyball are could still schedule plenty of out of quality conference opponents in those sports to prepare us for the postseason. 

Man, that’s presuming a lot.  I don’t think there is any doubt Bellmont would be more competitive in the ACAC in the sports you listed, but I don’t know about the instant success you are suggesting. Other than Southern Wells, who is way down right now just like Bellmont, I’m not sure the Braves instantly add more football wins.  Bellmont does have an excellent wrestling program, but Jay County is also a top program in the area.  I could see a strong rivalry building between those two programs if Bellmont did make the jump.  Bellmont volleyball has also been really strong, however, one of their losses last season was to Heritage, so Bellmont wouldn’t have won the ACAC.  

I know I suggested the ACAC schools reach out to Bellmont, but I think the depth of the NE8 compared to the ACAC in most sports and the lack of schools with soccer, swimming, etc. in the ACAC will make Bellmont reluctant to consider a move.

The DOE released enrollment data earlier this month from the fall count day for the 22-23 school year.  Here are the enrollments for each school for grades 9-12.  I made a tentative split for each class just to give an idea where they could be, but this is not a realignment year.  The fall ‘23 count day will be used for the next realignment.  Schools with an * did not report their data to the DOE, so their enrollments are listed as the same as the number they gave the IHSAA last year.  I included Indianapolis Irvington and Fort Wayne Blackhawk Christian since both are planning to move to 11 man football and they are tournament eligible schools.  I put Cathedral in 6A since they already have enough success factor points to stay up in the next cycle.

5 hours ago, BTF said:

Not sure you're going to see a slew of transfer portal kids go to Blackhawk, and if you do, what will be their talent level? If a kid has D1 potential, he's probably going to want to continue completing at the 5a and 6a levels. Then there's two other factors, each having two parts:

1.    A player's family will have to come up with 12k per year to send their athlete to the school. And they'll have to be ok with their child learning in a Christian setting. 

2.   A player would have to qualify for the voucher system. And the player's parents will have to be ok with them learning in a Christian environment. 

In the current environment. A kid in Fort Wayne is probably going to transfer to one of three programs.

1.   Carroll - Great school system provided by taxpayers with outstanding an outstanding football facility. 

2.   North Side - Not sure what coach Ben Johnson is offering kids outside of his district. But he seems to be able to get them to buy into his program. 

3.   Snider - Just a great program that produces next level football players. 

You don’t need players with D1 potential to be a power in 1A/2A, which is a big reason why some players/families choose to go to a 1A/2A parochial school.  They may not have the talent to get a lot of attention or make as much of an impact at a 5A/6A school, so they choose to go to a smaller school where they can be one of the best players and get more attention.  These are the kind of players that would be more likely to go to an NAIA program or D3 school, which is often a great fit for them.  Blackhawk Christian has many similar characteristics to Indianapolis Lutheran.  Enrollments are almost identical, very similar demographics, and both located in a highly populated area near much larger schools.  Using Lutheran as an example, they have been able to attract solid players to their 1A program despite being close to Roncalli, Franklin Central, Warren Central, New Pal, etc.

Here is the list of parochial schools with football.  Nearly all of them have won or appeared in a state championship.  I won’t be surprised to see Blackhawk with a competitive 1A program in the next 5-10 years, and making an appearance in the 1A finals within 15 years.  Lutheran played their first IHSAA tournament game in 2006.  They went to state for the first time in 2019.  It took Covenant Christian 6 years to go to their first state finals in football.  Heritage Christian also made it to state in their 6th year playing in the tournament.

Indianapolis Roncalli

Indianapolis Cathedral

Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger

Brebeuf Jesuit

South Bend Saint Joseph

Guerin Catholic

Mishawaka Marian

Indianapolis Bishop Chatard

Fort Wayne Concordia

Evansville Memorial

Indianapolis Cardinal Ritter

Heritage Christian

Evansville Mater Dei

Hammond Bishop Noll (sort of)

Fort Wayne Bishop Luers

Indianapolis Scecina

Andrean

Covenant Christian (Indianapolis)

Providence

Lafayette Central Catholic

Indianapolis Lutheran

Traders Point Christian