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hhpatriot04

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Posts posted by hhpatriot04

    4A Regional Championship: East Central at Evansville Memorial

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    On 11/6/2023 at 10:04 AM, TigerFan20 said:

    Massey Ratings:

    East Central (-30) at Memorial, 96% chance of winning for the Trojans 

    96/100 in anything involving teenagers playing a "game" is ridiculous statistically, especially for teams "in" the same class... Sagarin's ratings and my certainty algorithm puts it in the 80s.

    Sagarin's Predictor:

    East Central (97.18) is a 21-point favorite vs. Ev. Memorial (74.11) and has about a 83.43% chance of winning (2.01-point home-field advantage).

     

    (for reference...)

    Ben Davis (103.31) is a 27-point favorite vs. Ev. Memorial (74.11) and has about a 88.96% chance of winning.

    Ben Davis (103.31) is a 41.5-point favorite vs. Ev. Mater Dei (59.66) and has about a 96.07% chance of winning.

    3A Regional Championship Gibson Southern (10-2) @ Tri-West (11-1)

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Good luck, PAC.

    As far as understand, the IHSAA can "group" classes in one of eight places/directions:

    Center to NE

    Center to SE 

    Center to SW

    Center to NE

    NE to Center

    SE to Center 

    SW to Center

    NW to Center

    I think this Commissioner is being more literal with the Class groupings than predecessors. 

    I like the Titans but they will need to guard against looking ahead and may need a quarter to establish themselves. I like the Titans running game moving forward.

    3A Regional Championship: Heritage Hills (11-1) @ Batesville (11-1)

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    On 11/7/2023 at 2:59 PM, StinkTownClown said:

    Stinky, Stink, Stink 1.2..3...

    It's been a few years since Cutler High has been this deep!

    Coming to Bulldog land from way down South

    Coffin K9 will be more than happy to let you tailgate with him while slamming Bulldog BL's down!

    Not so fast my Coffin K9 friend, Cutler High will have some players who will put the Bulldogs in their pin.

    Casketnation better grind and dine, cause empty trips and getting shut out in the second half will have them way behind!

    Stink will be cheering for the EIAC Dogs to win, but he also won't be surprised if Cutler High walks out with a win!Tiger & Bulldog BL's FOREVER - Kentucky Bourbon NEVER!!! 

     

    Cutler never played Batesville. 

    Any R Wilson relatives on the squad? Hit the Go Route early and often.

    My footBalls are still cold from changing in your shed of a locker room... ONLY time I have looked forward to a four hour bus ride.

    Bulldog bro's mouthpiece finally fell out of orbit after the Seifrig hit and landed in Lincoln City #PreConcussionEra

    Dawgie once asked TA for "Extra cheese" on a *free* pizza... 

    Regionals Scoreboard: Hhpatriot04 (4), Cutler (1)

    Coach G was a true PATRIOT driving 7 plus hours round trip to attend Coach Clayton's retirement.

    Batesville is good people.

    Rename northern Spencer County as "Lincoln, Indiana!"

    #PatriotPride /out

    • Like 1

    Where can the game prediction website be found?

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    http://predictor.gridirondigest.net

    Thanks for the love! 

    To clarify, the Predictor Tool (solely) uses Jeff Sagarin's Predictor value in conjunction with the corresponding homefield advantage value (currently 2.04 points) to make predictions.

    I updated the code to pull from Sagarin's Sectional ratings. Apologies, I had gotten behind.

    I am planning some new features:

    - Batch predictions (user's selections, conference, class, sectionals, etc...)

    - Graphics (team helmets)

    - Year-to-year predictions 

    I have archived ALL of Sagarin's end of year ratings since 1999. If anyone knows of a source to go back farther, please let me know! 

     

    GID Pick ‘Em Week 4

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Sagarin's Predictions 

    1.  Fishers (96.39) is a 5.5-point favorite vs. Hamilton SE (92.29) and has about a 60.22% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    2.  Bedford NL (60.19) is a 9.5-point favorite vs. New Albany (51.85) and has about a 67.70% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    3.  Marion (41.25) is a 4-point favorite vs. Anderson (38.5) and has about a 57.71% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    4.  Pendleton Hts. (77.81) is a 3-point favorite vs. Greenfield (75.94) and has about a 56.05% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    5.  Brebeuf Jesuit (74.67) vs. Guerin Catholic (75.9) is a draw (1.3-point home-field advantage)

    6.  FW Wayne (57.19) is a 8.5-point favorite vs. FW Luers (50.07) and has about a 65.62% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    7.  Tri-West (71.79) is a 8.5-point favorite vs. Western Boone (61.94) and has about a 65.84% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advaadvantage.)

    8.  Heritage (82.31) is a 29.5-point favorite vs. South Adams (51.46) and has about a 90.62% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    9.  Knox (58.8) vs. North Judson (60.3) is a draw (1.3-point home-field advantage) <I'll take Knox>

    10.  Linton (58.54) is a 6.5-point favorite vs. Sullivan (50.87) and has about a 61.99% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    11.  Bremen (51.72) is a 4.5-point favorite vs. Triton (46.15) and has about a 58.12% chance of winning (1.3-point home-field advantage).

    GID Pick 'Em Week 7

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Sagarin's Predictions

    1.  Southport (38.53) is a 9.5-point favorite vs. TH North (31.35) and has about a 67.63% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    2.  Perry Meridian (71.52) is a 7.5-point favorite vs. Martinsville (66.45) and has about a 63.99% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    3.  Concord (78.37) is a 7.5-point favorite vs. Northridge (73.21) and has about a 64.15% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    4.  Floyd Central (67.14) is a 4.5-point favorite vs. Bedford NL (65.17) and has about a 58.34% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    5.  Ev. North (75.38) is a 5-point favorite vs. Vincennes (72.71) and has about a 59.64% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    6.  Ev. Reitz (84.88) is a 16.5-point favorite vs. Ev. Memorial (70.88) and has about a 77.91% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    7.  Heritage (69.9) is a 9.5-point favorite vs. Bluffton (62.71) and has about a 67.65% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    8.  Lafayette CC (62.12) is a 8-point favorite vs. Twin Lakes (51.46) and has about a 65.3% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    9.  Tritn Central (73.61) is a 17.5-point favorite vs. Indy Scecina (58.32) and has about a 79.56% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    10.  Hagerstown (46.92) is a 0.5-point favorite vs. Winchester (44.14) and has about a 50.69% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    11.  Providence (58.21) is a 5-point favorite vs. Milan (55.68) and has about a 59.39% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    Fort Wayne conference re alignment

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    23 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

    You have just irritated me even more.  If Sagarin already has the algorithm, there is no reason IHSAA can't minimize the distance for football pairings.  So things like Princeton and GS being in separate semi states or Brownstown possibly facing Indianapolis Scecina in sectional wouldn't happen.  

    Supposedly the alignments change and shift because the IHSAA alternates the directions from which it starts grouping teams. For example, one cycle they might start from Meridian and Washington, then go either NE, SE, NW, or SW. The next cycle, they start in the NW corner of the state then start grouping teams,  then SE, NE, SW, repeat...

    Clear as mud? 

    SIAC 2023

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Football Fanatic said:

    Reactions after week 6:

    - Mater Dei continues to struggle. I think Bosse beats them. Honestly don't think they'll beat North Posey this time in sectionals.

    - North is looking good. I expect them to win 2 of their last 3, maybe even at Jasper. Unfortunately, VL does not have their QB or else I think VL would win that. North will end up 7-2 or 6-3 which amazingly would be their best regular season record since the '07-'08 season.

    - Memorial struggled with Bosse. I was not surprised by that because Bosse might be the best 1 win team around, but I was surprised by how close Bosse was to actually winning the game. Obviously the Memorial offense is not the same without their key guys, that's obvious, but it seemed like their defense struggled with the Bosse speed. I think Bosse can beat MD and Harrison to end up 3-6. 

    - Most impressive feat from week 6? Has to be Reitz only allowing 12 yards to the high-scoring Castle offense in the 2nd half after being down at half. Great teams persevere and they did it in a big way. Castle is better than their 3-3 record but they need to get healthy and figure some things out.

    - Continue to be in awe about how bad Central and Harrison are struggling. The matchup between them is very interesting because it is so difficult to analyze who will win.

    - Jasper is playing good football. They will be dangerous in the sectional.

    Now do Vincennes!

    SIAC Week 7

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    On 9/23/2023 at 9:32 PM, TigerFan20 said:

    Calpreps:

    Harrison (-6) at Central, 62% chance of winning for the Warriors

    MD at Bosse (-7), 65% chance of winning for the Dawgs

    Memorial at Reitz (-10), 70% chance of winning for the Panthers

    Castle (-3) at Jasper, 58% chance of winning for the Knights

    VL at North (-1), 53% chance of winning for the Huskies 

    Going to be a fun week in the SIAC!

    Now do predictor.gridirondigest.net 

    PAC Week 7

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Sagarin's Predictor (at Heritage Hills):

    Heritage Hills (69.9) is a 4.5-point favorite vs. Gibson Southern (67.61) and has about a 58.94% chance of winning (2.42-point home-field advantage).

    Sagarin still no love for the Titans... I predict Gibson will gain about two rating points per week and cap around a 9 point favorite on an even field.

    https:/predictor.gridirondigest.net/index.php

    Heritage Hills at Gibson Southern

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Heritage Hills 31, Gibson Southern 28

     

     

     

     

    (injury timeouts)

     

     

     

     

    Kidding... Gibson Southern 31, Heritage Hills 28 - What a game. Gibson is a great team and could have run away with this one, but Heritage Hills strung some drives together late and kept it interesting. Bravo. Heritage Hills pulled a FG left just a few feet in Q2 that would have pushed this into OT. Gibson will put up at least six TDs on everyone until deep in the tourney. Some terrific football being played in SW Indiana right now. DeLong, Novotny and the Titans offense is just scary at the 3A level!

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