Predict a Matchup Tool

[hhpatriot04]

Predictor.GridironDigest.net

Back by popular demand 

👋 @tango

 

[hhpatriot04]

And here are the predictions, using Jeff Sagarin's Predictor Rating, for the 2023 state championship games!

Predict a Matchup Tool

CLASS A
Indy Lutheran (80.71) is a 2-point favorite vs. Adams Central (78.51) and has about a 54.21% chance of winning.

CLASS 2A
North Posey (70.4) is a 8.5-point favorite vs. FW Luers (62.02) and has about a 65.55% chance of winning.

CLASS 3A
Indy Chatard (87.92) is a 10.5-point favorite vs. Heritage Hills (77.67) and has about a 68.71% chance of winning.

CLASS 4A
East Central (100.91) is a 20-point favorite vs. NorthWood (80.93) and has about a 82.25% chance of winning.

CLASS 5A
FW Snider (86) is a 1.5-point favorite vs. Decatur Central (84.7) and has about a 52.49% chance of winning.

CLASS 6A
Ben Davis (104.61) is a 14-point favorite vs. Crown Point (90.77) and has about a 74.31% chance of winning.

[Bobref]

46 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

CLASS 6A
Ben Davis (104.61) is a 11-point favorite vs. Westfield (93.85) and has about a 69.55% chance of winning.

How do you think Ben Davis will do against Crown Point?

[ArmyVet80]

9 hours ago, Bobref said:

How do you think Ben Davis will do against Crown Point?

Ben Davis (104.61) is a 16-point favorite vs. Crown Point (90.77) and has about a 77.19% chance of winning (2.04-point home-field advantage). 👍

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, ArmyVet80 said:

Ben Davis (104.61) is a 16-point favorite vs. Crown Point (90.77) and has about a 77.19% chance of winning (2.04-point home-field advantage). 👍

Ben Davis (104.61) is a 14-point favorite vs. Crown Point (90.77) and has about a 74.31% chance of winning (0-point home-field advantage).

Now, I can clarify that I didn't use the homefield advantage for these games. 

[ArmyVet80]

22 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Ben Davis (104.61) is a 14-point favorite vs. Crown Point (90.77) and has about a 74.31% chance of winning (0-point home-field advantage).

Now, I can clarify that I didn't use the homefield advantage for these games. 

I forgot to turn it off. 🤦‍♂️ I'm guessing it'll be very close to a home game crowd for Ben Davis though. 😂

[foxbat]

Has the tool been updated for the 2024 season?

[Cowboysfan03]

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Franklin central beats Center grove this year and cathedral to beat Ln 

[hhpatriot04]

On 10/2/2024 at 1:19 PM, foxbat said:

Has the tool been updated for the 2024 season?

Yes and updated through Week 4 of 2025!

[hhpatriot04]

I added the ability to predict between years. The math is pretty solid (I just compare each team to the mean for a given year).

2024 Ben Davis (Raw: 93.4 / WinsM: 45.4 / Norm: 123.0) is a 10.0-point favorite vs. 2025 New Palestine (Raw: 90.2 / WinsM: 52.4 / Norm: 112.8) (no HFA).

Win probability: 2024 Ben Davis 68.3%, 2025 New Palestine 31.7%.

Note: Predictions are rounded to the half (0.5) point. Matchup comparisons use normalized ratings (Raw Predictor - Year's Winsorized Mean) and apply home-field advantage, if selected, and averaged if years are different).

Updated thru: Week 14 — September 14, 2025