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Temp’s Big Ten Rankings After Week 3


temptation
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43 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

They barely could get by Purdue and Purdue has serious issues with closing out games

Game 1 and I think if Purdue can stop making mistakes at crucial times, they can be a pretty decent team.

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7 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Game 1 and I think if Purdue can stop making mistakes at crucial times, they can be a pretty decent team.

When teams have similar talent (Purdue/Syracuse) one mistake can cost you the game obviously.

In the case of Penn State/Purdue, the Boilers can't overcome a talent disparity AND coaching malpractice.

 

Funny that IU is sitting at 3-0, but I would be hard pressed to find anyone who states they are clearly better than a 1-2 Purdue team.

I swear Purdue invents new ways to lose games.

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2 minutes ago, temptation said:

When teams have similar talent (Purdue/Syracuse) one mistake can cost you the game obviously.

In the case of Penn State/Purdue, the Boilers can't overcome a talent disparity AND coaching malpractice.

 

Funny that IU is sitting at 3-0, but I would be hard pressed to find anyone who states they are clearly better than a 1-2 Purdue team.

I swear Purdue invents new ways to lose games.

No disagreements and I agree Penn State has much more talent.  But for a game 1, that game was there for the taking by Purdue and they blew it.  As FB16 stated, they were gifted a pick 6 and still lost it at the end.  

I am an IU guy, but let's be honest....Purdue has played a much stronger schedule so far.  IU was outplayed and came back late against Illinois.  IU was down 10-0 at half by a mediocre FCS team Idaho, and were outplayed and more than lucky to beat mid-major WKU in OT via a 51 yd FG.    The most unimpressive 3-0 I can remember.  Will be interesting to see what happens this weekend at Cincy.

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38 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

No disagreements and I agree Penn State has much more talent.  But for a game 1, that game was there for the taking by Purdue and they blew it.  As FB16 stated, they were gifted a pick 6 and still lost it at the end.  

I am an IU guy, but let's be honest....Purdue has played a much stronger schedule so far.  IU was outplayed and came back late against Illinois.  IU was down 10-0 at half by a mediocre FCS team Idaho, and were outplayed and more than lucky to beat mid-major WKU in OT via a 51 yd FG.    The most unimpressive 3-0 I can remember.  Will be interesting to see what happens this weekend at Cincy.

IU is also breaking in a brand new OC and system, with a brand new QB, a bunch of new/inexperienced wideouts, a brand new RB room, and have two starters out on an offensive line that is already bad to begin with. Offense has been out of sync at times but they've already shown an infinite higher ceiling than last year. Bazelak has missed some throws and I attribute that some to lack of repetition in an unfamiliar system. But he can drive the ball downfield and IU has 3-4 receivers plus a big body TE that have shown the ability to get separation from defenders. That was almost non-existent last year and it made matters worse when Penix went out as neither Tuttle or McCulley could accurately drive home the ball downfield. 

My biggest concern is the defense. We all knew McFadden would be a big loss but other than he, IU has a bunch of experienced 3-4 year starters back and added a couple impact transfers from legit P5 programs. Defense isn't getting it done consistently right now. Tom Allen isn't calling an aggressive scheme like he did 2-3 years ago and IU just isn't good enough in the secondary to contain with a 4 man pass rush. 

I will agree that the 3-0 start is pretty pedestrian but at the same time 3-0 is 3-0. With the way last year ended, dropping 1 or 2 of these early winnable games could have been catastrophic for the rest of season outlook. I think this game at Cincinnati in a pretty hostile environment will set the tone for the rest of the season. I'm beyond moral victories with Tom Allen at this juncture but this is a game that I don't see Indiana winning. If they play with their hair on fire in this game and make it interesting my outlook changes some for the rest of the year. Get blown out and there may not be many, if any, wins left on the schedule. 

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3 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

IU is also breaking in a brand new OC and system, with a brand new QB, a bunch of new/inexperienced wideouts, a brand new RB room, and have two starters out on an offensive line that is already bad to begin with. Offense has been out of sync at times but they've already shown an infinite higher ceiling than last year. Bazelak has missed some throws and I attribute that some to lack of repetition in an unfamiliar system. But he can drive the ball downfield and IU has 3-4 receivers plus a big body TE that have shown the ability to get separation from defenders. That was almost non-existent last year and it made matters worse when Penix went out as neither Tuttle or McCulley could accurately drive home the ball downfield. 

My biggest concern is the defense. We all knew McFadden would be a big loss but other than he, IU has a bunch of experienced 3-4 year starters back and added a couple impact transfers from legit P5 programs. Defense isn't getting it done consistently right now. Tom Allen isn't calling an aggressive scheme like he did 2-3 years ago and IU just isn't good enough in the secondary to contain with a 4 man pass rush. 

I will agree that the 3-0 start is pretty pedestrian but at the same time 3-0 is 3-0. With the way last year ended, dropping 1 or 2 of these early winnable games could have been catastrophic for the rest of season outlook. I think this game at Cincinnati in a pretty hostile environment will set the tone for the rest of the season. I'm beyond moral victories with Tom Allen at this juncture but this is a game that I don't see Indiana winning. If they play with their hair on fire in this game and make it interesting my outlook changes some for the rest of the year. Get blown out and there may not be many, if any, wins left on the schedule. 

Great analysis....pretty darn spot on in my opinion.....

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FWIW:  ESPN’s FPI has the Hoosiers dropping their final 9.

Win probability:

at Cincinnati:  12%

at Nebraska:  37%
vs Michigan:  8%
vs Maryland:  36%

at Rutgers:  34%
vs Penn State:  14%
at Ohio State:  2%

at Michigan State:  10%
vs Purdue:  25%

I am on record is saying the Hoosiers will win one more but I’m starting to second guess that as some of those numbers seem low based on what we saw these past three weeks.

I could honestly see a path to 5-6 wins.

 

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23 minutes ago, temptation said:

FWIW:  ESPN’s FPI has the Hoosiers dropping their final 9.

Win probability:

at Cincinnati:  12%

at Nebraska:  37%
vs Michigan:  8%
vs Maryland:  36%

at Rutgers:  34%
vs Penn State:  14%
at Ohio State:  2%

at Michigan State:  10%
vs Purdue:  25%

I am on record is saying the Hoosiers will win one more but I’m starting to second guess that as some of those numbers seem low based on what we saw these past three weeks.

I could honestly see a path to 5-6 wins.

 

At Ohio State......

 

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26 minutes ago, temptation said:

FWIW:  ESPN’s FPI has the Hoosiers dropping their final 9.

Win probability:

at Cincinnati:  12%

at Nebraska:  37%
vs Michigan:  8%
vs Maryland:  36%

at Rutgers:  34%
vs Penn State:  14%
at Ohio State:  2%

at Michigan State:  10%
vs Purdue:  25%

I am on record is saying the Hoosiers will win one more but I’m starting to second guess that as some of those numbers seem low based on what we saw these past three weeks.

I could honestly see a path to 5-6 wins.

 

Avg 21% chance to win at home......nice

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3 hours ago, temptation said:

FWIW:  ESPN’s FPI has the Hoosiers dropping their final 9.

Win probability:

at Cincinnati:  12%

at Nebraska:  37%
vs Michigan:  8%
vs Maryland:  36%

at Rutgers:  34%
vs Penn State:  14%
at Ohio State:  2%

at Michigan State:  10%
vs Purdue:  25%

I am on record is saying the Hoosiers will win one more but I’m starting to second guess that as some of those numbers seem low based on what we saw these past three weeks.

I could honestly see a path to 5-6 wins.

 

Ohio State and Michigan will be blood baths and Penn State will still be a tall task given the talent disparity, but I think the rest of these numbers are way off. I’d say:

Cincy 30%
Nebraska 50%
Maryland 45%
Rutgers 50%
Michigan St 35%
Purdue 40%
 

 

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I do feel an obligation to quickly defend Michigan's schedule and agree that we will find out a lot about them this weekend against Maryland.

As most know, college football schedules are made years in advance and at the time Colorado State and Hawaii were scheduled, they were rolling and consistently bowl teams winning 7-8 games.  Both teams had recent coaching changes and are in the rebuilding process to say the least but hindsight is 20/20.

As for UConn, it was an emergency replacement as Michigan had a home and home scheduled with UCLA.  (By no means a juggernaut, but a power 5 team nonetheless.)

When the Big Ten adopted the 9 game conference schedule, Michigan was slated to have four home conference games in 2023, plus a road game at UCLA.  The athletic department, coming off of COVID, was not willing to only play 6 home contests in 2023 so UCLA was dropped and UConn was added.

Moot point now, but just wanted to point it out.

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1 hour ago, temptation said:

I do feel an obligation to quickly defend Michigan's schedule and agree that we will find out a lot about them this weekend against Maryland.

As most know, college football schedules are made years in advance and at the time Colorado State and Hawaii were scheduled, they were rolling and consistently bowl teams winning 7-8 games.  Both teams had recent coaching changes and are in the rebuilding process to say the least but hindsight is 20/20.

As for UConn, it was an emergency replacement as Michigan had a home and home scheduled with UCLA.  (By no means a juggernaut, but a power 5 team nonetheless.)

When the Big Ten adopted the 9 game conference schedule, Michigan was slated to have four home conference games in 2023, plus a road game at UCLA.  The athletic department, coming off of COVID, was not willing to only play 6 home contests in 2023 so UCLA was dropped and UConn was added.

Moot point now, but just wanted to point it out.

No disagreements that schedules are done years in advance.  But the fact remains that the Wolverines schedule has been very weak so far.  Is that a big deal?  I don't think so.  They play in the Big 10 East.  They will face some stellar competition   Also, they travel to Iowa....while not the best Iowa team offensively, they do have a tough D and its never easy winning in Iowa City.  No will debate about their schedule at the end of the season.  They will earn their outcome as they face the meat of their schedule....and it will be a grinder.

 

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

No disagreements that schedules are done years in advance.  But the fact remains that the Wolverines schedule has been very weak so far.  Is that a big deal?  I don't think so.  They play in the Big 10 East.  They will face some stellar competition   Also, they travel to Iowa....while not the best Iowa team offensively, they do have a tough D and its never easy winning in Iowa City.  No will debate about their schedule at the end of the season.  They will earn their outcome as they face the meat of their schedule....and it will be a grinder.

 

Correct, I was just dismissing the notion laid out there by many in the public that Michigan is somehow ducking legitimate competition.

Now, when folks start calling out the SEC for scheduling FCS schools in weeks 11-12, I'll be happy.

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