Footballking16

That's my approach and the numbers once again prove what I've been saying for years and a statistical improbability doesn't change the fact or narrative that the current format is flawed. It'd be akin to a public health official coming out and saying it's a myth that jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge is dangerous because one person one time survived. Sadly, people would believe it.

-78 first round match-ups that pitted a top half Sagarin team vs a bottom half Sagarin rated team. Bottom half teams went 2-76 and both promptly lost the next round. -Monrovia was the ONLY bottom half Sagarin team in the entire state to advance to a sectional final by virtue of beating a top half Sagarin team. Literally a statistical anomaly. They also drew the worst rated team in the entire class by virtue of a postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. -A run like Monrovia is on happens once in a blue moon, they’d happen even less if the IHSAA put on a tournament that acknowledged a 2.5 month regular season took place prior. Keeping a flawed postseason for the sake of a statistical anomaly doesn’t make sense, it never will. This exercise I believe has run its course and the numbers don’t lie. They never have. Add a tenth regular season game, eliminate half the field at the conclusion of the regular season, acknowledge, reward, and seed teams based on regular season success just as it’s done everywhere else and hope for a better, more competitive tournament throughout.

I’ve discussed them ad nauseam in this very thread. I’ve even congratulated them. Did you conveniently forget that Monrovia played not only the worst team in their sectional, but the worst team in 3A in their first round matchup? That doesn’t happen in a postseason format that rewards regular season success.

Warsaw beat a fellow bottom half Sagarin rated team (Elkhart) to advance to the sectional final due to a flaw in the current postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. Neither should have been in the tournament to begin with under my proposal and in any format that recognizes regular season success would have faced Penn or Carroll in the opening round.

IPS schools have been notoriously bad for years at football. They need to co-op into 2 teams. IPS EAST and IPS WEST

Gotcha. Yes its been several decades since the IPS schools were "good" at football.

Are you talking specifically inside 465 or Indianapolis proper? Marion County isn't confined to the inside of 465. LN, LC, Ben Davis, Warren, etc all have Indianapolis addresses but are located just outside the loop. They're township schools. Roncalli is another Indy school located just south of 465 but with an Indianapolis address. Lutheran is just outside the loop as well.

Goal post width is different between high school and college by almost 5 feet.

Doesn't affect me, don't have to worry about parking as I can walk from the office. Tech has same venue constraints as Arlington does (no visiting side concessions or bathrooms) but it's a field turf so there won't (shouldn't be at least) any complaints from the CG faithful as we know that's the root of the issue. Will be interesting to see how many show on the visiting side this go around. Visiting stands weren't even half full last time the Trojans played at Tech.

How many sectional finalist advanced by beating top half rated teams? If you’re referring to Pike Central, somebody out of that quadrant had to make the sectional finals given the nature of how a single elimination tournament works. Pike Central was the winner of this flawed system in this specific scenario.

CalPreps and Massey are computer rankings that factor in out of state competition. Chatard was a top 10 team in both and would have effortlessly qualified for a playoff format that effectively cut the field in half. *And if you’ve followed throughout, I’ve acknowledged Sagarin likely wouldn’t be the formula the IHSAA uses as it doesn’t factor out of state opponents. I personally used Sagarin because it’s readily accessible and through John Harrell’s website ranks each sectional by Sagarin.

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin. They are an extreme outlier in this case study. Bottom half Sagarin rated teams went 2-76 in the first round against top half Sagarin rated teams. That’s par for the course. Monrovia didn’t factor into that first round figure because due to a flaw in the postseason format played the worst team not only in their sectional, but in 3A. Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome, but it doesn’t change the fact the postseason format is broken. The numbers speak for themself.

Cody might have to go into witness protection.

Cathedral holds on. 14-7

Committee still punishing Michigan for a non-existent, non-conference schedule. Notre Dame win for OSU to open the year looking better every week.

Pretty good stab at it. Berglund at DB would get my vote.

Crazy that George Karlaftis didn't make it either.

When you have a RB in Travis Etienne and guys like Armani Rodgers and Justyn Ross out on the perimeter it makes life easier for any QB. As shocking as DJ's regression has been, I wasn't wowed with any of Clemson's skill position players. There's no Tee Higgins or Hunter Renfrow or Deon Cain on this years roster. And I think it's fair to say that Dabo needs coordinators Tony Elliott and Brent Venables a lot more than people went to lead on. No doubt Dabo is one hell of a program builder, but he was smart enough to surround himself with some of the best minds in football.

I think this is a year where there isn't a clear cut favorite nor a year where there was a heavy preseason favorite so that may play into favor for someone like Tibbs. Don't know about the exposure aspect and not really sure that it matters much. I would guess most 5A/6A previous winners from Central Indiana likely didn't have that kind of exposure either.

With a big game and a win, I would feel comfortable putting Tibbs in the conversation. Currently has modest numbers (compared to Bowen and Hansen) 54 catches 842 yards and 13 TD's but has also played two less games due to a bye week for Cathedral as well as 6A having one less playoff round. He's averaging a TD every 4th touch which is a stat that stands out the most to me. Jayden Whitaker Brownsburg QB probably deserves to be in the conversation so long as Brownsburg stays in the tournament.

Where Michigan and UT are slotted after tonight is a huge deal.

You would think.

I disagree. Tennessee will get shafted if LSU wins the SEC championship, unless the OSU/UM game is a total blowout. I think SEC championship in this scenario trumps H2H. Doesn't make it right but I just don't see three SEC teams making it to the playoffs.

NP in this scenario is New Palestine. New Prairie wouldn't be a candidate to join the MIC.

Because an unranked team with home losses to Marshall and Stanford isn’t going to jump all the way up to #12. Just not how the AP poll works this late in the season. In regards to Clemson, this type of loss has been building all year. They’ve been rather unimpressive all year and their initial #4 ranking in the CFP was on name brand alone. Offense is a mess and they’re getting average QB play at best. They severely lack playmakers out on the perimeter.