2024 6A Who can win it all?

[temptation]

34 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

There’s a massive difference between a school with 3500-4000 kids (4-5 schools) and 1500-2000 kids (the rest of 5A) before the 6th class was added. That’s why the Big 3 dominated for so long.
 

There’s now 18 6A schools (out of 32) whose enrollment are all ~3000+. Once you cross a certain threshold in terms of enrollment, the number becomes insignificant. Only X amount of kids can play. If you can’t field a competitive football team with 3000+ kids in your building, you need to look in the mirror.

Simply put, Carmel/Warren/Ben Davis no longer enjoy the massive disparity in enrollment like they use too. And the results the last 6-8 years speak for themselves. 

Can’t disagree with any of this.

You know where I stand.

[BTF]

4 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Advantage to whom? A school with 2500 people playing against a school with 500 people? Sure

The enrollment gap between the top 3 is drastically closing and has been the last several years, as evidence by the end of dominance among Carmel/WC/BD. There’s enough schools now in 6A that have a big enough enrollment that makes the enrollment talking point irrelevant. Carmel has 5200 kids and is like the 3rd or 4th best team in its own county. 

We'll talk when Hamilton Southeastern, Westfield, Avon, and Noblesville are the four preseason teams to beat. 

[BTF]

4 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Carmel has 5200 kids and is like the 3rd or 4th best team in its own county. 

Which makes them about the 134th best program in the state?

[Footballking16]

6 hours ago, BTF said:

Which makes them about the 134th best program in the state?

Didn’t say that. But guarantee you Carmel doesn’t sign up to be a sectional finalist which is a reality the last few years. Enrollment and all.

[Footballking16]

7 hours ago, BTF said:

We'll talk when Hamilton Southeastern, Westfield, Avon, and Noblesville are the four preseason teams to beat. 

The team to beat year in and year out is Center Grove. 17th out of 32 in enrollment.

Weatfield passed Carmel years ago, despite half the enrollment. Let me know the next time Carmel gets out of sectionals. 

Edited July 6, 2024 by Footballking16

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

The team to beat year in and year out is Center Grove. 17th out of 32 in enrollment.

Weatfield passed Carmel years ago, despite half the enrollment. Let me know the next time Carmel gets out of sectionals. 

Look up "by and large."

[BLACKGOLD2007]

Carmel appears to be going through a stretch where either: coaching is going stale, buy in is at an all time low, complacency has worked into the program or top players are not playing football.  I don't pay enough attention to how many D1 level players they are producing, to have a valid opinion on the state of affairs down there, but I think their current problem lies beyond numbers. 

When Carmel figures this out, they will be winning sectionals again, and likely retake their spot on top of 6A North. 

Eliminate CG from the overall conversation, what Moore has done there is develop an empire. It will eventually come to an end, but for this situation, set them aside.

Who made regionals in the south & north last year? Ben Davis (#2 enrollment), Warren (#3 enrollment), Center Grove & Cathedral and in the north Penn (#6 enrollment), CP, Westfield & HSE (#8 enrollment) 50% of the schools competing at this point are still of the larger enrollment schools in the state 3400 +. They may not win state each year anymore, yes because other schools have grown up and decreased the enrollment gap which has injected depth and talent into these programs....but the biggest schools are still moving on. When BD, Carmel, Warren, Penn etc. are all not winning sectionals on a regular basis then I think we talk say 6A has reached parity. Then we just need to get a team from the true north to close the gap and win the entire thing again. 

There is only 1 school in the top ten in enrollment from the true north...Penn. Does Carroll or CP need to crack the top 10 to have a chance at a win at state, or is the true north stuck playing second and third fiddles? (I only included those schools because they will consistently be in 6A for the foreseeable future.)

 

Edited July 6, 2024 by BLACKGOLD2007

[BTF]

8 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

Carmel appears to be going through a stretch where either: coaching is going stale, buy in is at an all time low, complacency has worked into the program or top players are not playing football.  I don't pay enough attention to how many D1 level players they are producing, to have a valid opinion on the state of affairs down there, but I think their current problem lies beyond numbers. 

When Carmel figures this out, they will be winning sectionals again, and likely retake their spot on top of 6A North. 

Eliminate CG from the overall conversation, what Moore has done there is develop an empire. It will eventually come to an end, but for this situation, set them aside.

Who made regionals in the south & north last year? Ben Davis (#2 enrollment), Warren (#3 enrollment), Center Grove & Cathedral and in the north Penn (#6 enrollment), CP, Westfield & HSE (#8 enrollment) 50% of the schools competing at this point are still of the larger enrollment schools in the state 3400 +. They may not win state each year anymore, yes because other schools have grown up and decreased the enrollment gap which has injected depth and talent into these programs....but the biggest schools are still moving on. When BD, Carmel, Warren, Penn etc. are all not winning sectionals on a regular basis then I think we talk say 6A has reached parity. Then we just need to get a team from the true north to close the gap and win the entire thing again. 

There is only 1 school in the top ten in enrollment from the true north...Penn. Does Carroll or CP need to crack the top 10 to have a chance at a win at state, or is the true north stuck playing second and third fiddles? (I only included those schools because they will consistently be in 6A for the foreseeable future.)

 

Good post. I have a ton of respect for all said programs. I just don't think it hurts to say, "yeah, we have a somewhat of an advantage with our enrollment numbers." And I'm not even saying we need to dilute 6A down to 16 teams. I'm just saying, "be humble." No more, no less. 

[Bash Riprock]

18 hours ago, temptation said:

Pretty solid stuff here @Bash Riprock assuming I am allowed to respond.

Just one caveat though…how many of those runner up squads you cited were even close in the title game?  We all know that more often than not, the true 6A state title game takes place WELL before Thanksgiving weekend.

 

I stated some of those title games over the entire period were close, some were blowouts. And no disagreement, in some of those years, best game was in the semi state…that could be claimed for last year’s game.  But should we just throw out the accomplishment of many schools outside the “big 3” making it to the finals of the state’s largest class?
 

But looking back over that entire period, there were a number of schools winning the title in the state’s largest class outside of the big 3. 6A has been mainly 4 schools winning titles since its inception. Is CG really an outlier now after years of sustained excellence, or is it a trend given their formula. 6 state finals appearances, (6A only) more than any other school would indicate that their formula for success works, and with big 3 down over past few years (until last year) has absolutely seen the gap close, especially with the improvement of HCC schools. 

Preseason this year looks like some serious talent is present at 2 of the big 3 so I expect them to be successful. It’s been a few years for WC, just as it was a few years for BD until last year. Will be interesting to watch the direction of the Carmel program given the talented teams in their back yard. 

[KmartGiant]

Rando here.  BD had plenty of down years with Dullaghan between the 91 and 99 titles. The 96 loss to Penn in the 5A title game 1 major example. That should never have happened. They were outplayed and out coached hands down. The 95 team losing Evansville North another example. Coach D's wins and losses speak for themself. Winning titles when you should have is another story. He left at least 2 state titles for their taking and as a heavy favorite both of those years.

As far as out of state games, keep them coming, Give me a great game over a yawner vs. Pike or NC. Maybe that'll change in time, but not right now and not soon. There's a reason the top ranked national teams often play multiple out of state games and that is simply to boost their ranking. Winning state is one thing, but being a national power is another. There is great pride in both, why not strive for both? 

[temptation]

41 minutes ago, KmartGiant said:

Rando here.  BD had plenty of down years with Dullaghan between the 91 and 99 titles. The 96 loss to Penn in the 5A title game 1 major example. That should never have happened. They were outplayed and out coached hands down. The 95 team losing Evansville North another example. Coach D's wins and losses speak for themself. Winning titles when you should have is another story. He left at least 2 state titles for their taking and as a heavy favorite both of those years.

As far as out of state games, keep them coming, Give me a great game over a yawner vs. Pike or NC. Maybe that'll change in time, but not right now and not soon. There's a reason the top ranked national teams often play multiple out of state games and that is simply to boost their ranking. Winning state is one thing, but being a national power is another. There is great pride in both, why not strive for both? 

The state runner up finish in 96 was a down year huh, lol?

[Bash Riprock]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

The state runner up finish in 96 was a down year huh, lol?

Common ground...so a state runner up is an accomplishment, right?  Those are certainly not limited to the "big 3" schools.

[temptation]

I wanna go back to the good vs great coach argument using North Central as an example.  Luck your chops on this one @Bash Riprock…

Rick Streiff:  21-23 at North Central

Rick Streiff:  98-41 at Cathedral

Kevin O’Shea:  25-37 at North Central

Kevin O’Shea:  104-8 at LCC

 

 

Edited July 6, 2024 by temptation

[KmartGiant]

37 minutes ago, temptation said:

The state runner up finish in 96 was a down year huh, lol?

They smoked Penn 24-0 to end one of the worst streaks in Indiana as Penn hadn't played any competition in the 89 game winning streak. BD was outplayed and out coached in the 96 title game debacle. One of Coach D's biggest failures. I remember it all too well. BD had 3 IU commits De'Wayne Hogan, Kyle Moffett and Derin Graham. Plus a kicker who could hit from 60+ yards in Western KY grad Jeff Poisel. It was a disaster that night.  That was a down year yes, losing to an inferior opponent who had zero business beating them.

[Bash Riprock]

47 minutes ago, temptation said:

I wanna go back to the good vs great coach argument using North Central as an example.  Luck your chops on this one @Bash Riprock…

Rick Streiff:  21-23 at North Central

Rick Streiff:  98-41 at Cathedral

Kevin O’Shea:  25-37 at North Central

Kevin O’Shea:  104-8 at LCC

 

 

I listed those coaches is a previous post.  Add Mark Haste to the mix.  Coach Haste was 101-44 at Tri West from 1994-2005.  His teams won 3 state championships with 1 runner up during his tenure.  Mark goes to North Central 2006-08.  His teams were 14-19 for those 3 seasons.  

Speaking of Streiff...I watched him one game at CG do something I've never seen before or since.  NC was not playing well and Streiff was ticked.  He called a time out, had all the players on the sidelines go out on the field and join the others currently in the game.  He up/downed them all during the time out.  Officials came over and he called 2 more timeouts and kept up/downing them.  I assumed he felt they weren't giving it their all, so he collected some energy.  Was wild.  

Edited July 6, 2024 by Bash Riprock

[temptation]

11 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I listed those coaches is a previous post.  Add Mark Haste to the mix.  Coach Haste was 101-44 at Tri West from 1994-2005.  His teams won 3 state championships with 1 runner up during his tenure.  Mark goes to North Central 2006-08.  His teams were 14-19 for those 3 seasons.  

Speaking of Streiff...I watched him one game at CG do something I've never seen before or since.  NC was not playing well and Streiff was ticked.  He called a time out, had all the players on the sidelines go out on the field and join the others currently in the game.  He up/downed them all during the time out.  Officials came over and he called 2 more timeouts and kept up/downing them.  I assumed he felt they weren't giving it their all, so he collected some energy.  Was wild.  

O’Shea had it rolling at NC for a couple of years and the COVID seemed to kill all their momentum.

[Bash Riprock]

19 hours ago, BTF said:

Let's take a look at what transpired in the biggest division prior to 2015. Center Grove has been the outlier since then, and let's be honest, this most recent stretch hasn't been some of BD, WC, and Carmel's best years. So lets shoot for 1978-2014. That's 36 years. We should be able to draw some kind of conclusion from that. Eight schools outside of the Top 5 enrollment schools won the state title. The top 5 enrollment schools took 78% of the titles. I mean, that's practically 8/10. Coincidence I guess. 

From 1999-2007, all nine titles came from within the Top 5 enrollments schools, four of the five being represented (Carmel, BD, WC, and Penn). I think it's hard for anyone to conclude that that's just coincidence. 

This is probably my last post on this topic. I'll just chalk it up as a loss on my end. I can't keep saying the same thing over and over again and try to make the numbers make sense for those who don't understand it. 

Good luck to all programs. 

Perhaps its the "teacher" that is failing and not the "students".  I provided you clear data going back to 1990-91 with all the state champions in the largest class, and it was not 90% for the big 3.  Far lower...the big 3 (BD/WC/Carmel) from 1990-2012 won 53% of the state titles.  That assumes there were the "big 3" in terms of enrollment, which we know they were not always in the top 3.  

Prior to the establishment of 6A, schools like Bloomington South won a couple of titles and had a 3rd appearance.  LC, Fishers, Castle, Snider also were winners in the largest class.  All "outliers" I guess.  Since 6A, BD/WC/Carmel has won 63% of the titles.  

Fully transparent, I have a hard time getting enrollment data past 2017.  I did find a report for 2001-2, but most of it is archives and it has to be requested.  Do you have another source to obtain?  BTW, WC was not in the top 3 that year. NC was 3rd largest.

I know its much "simpler" to say the largest schools win all the titles.  (or 90%)  But its not that simple, and insinuating others are not as smart as you because they poke holes in your statements is simply lacking.

14 minutes ago, temptation said:

O’Shea had it rolling at NC for a couple of years and the COVID seemed to kill all their momentum.

I would agree...you could see them looking so much better on the field.  Perhaps it was covid.  Definitely something changed.

[Footballking16]

3 hours ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

Who made regionals in the south & north last year? Ben Davis (#2 enrollment), Warren (#3 enrollment), Center Grove & Cathedral and in the north Penn (#6 enrollment), CP, Westfield & HSE (#8 enrollment) 50% of the schools competing at this point are still of the larger enrollment schools in the state 3400 +. They may not win state each year anymore, yes because other schools have grown up and decreased the enrollment gap which has injected depth and talent into these programs....but the biggest schools are still moving on. When BD, Carmel, Warren, Penn etc. are all not winning sectionals on a regular basis then I think we talk say 6A has reached parity. Then we just need to get a team from the true north to close the gap and win the entire thing again. 

Warren Central could go 0-9 and still make regionals. They play in the worst sectional in the entire state. Making a regional with that draw shouldn’t be an accomplishment.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

Perhaps its the "teacher" that is failing and not the "students".  I provided you clear data going back to 1990-91 with all the state champions in the largest class, and it was not 90% for the big 3.  Far lower...the big 3 (BD/WC/Carmel) from 1990-2012 won 53% of the state titles.  That assumes there were the "big 3" in terms of enrollment, which we know they were not always in the top 3.  

Prior to the establishment of 6A, schools like Bloomington South won a couple of titles and had a 3rd appearance.  LC, Fishers, Castle, Snider also were winners in the largest class.  All "outliers" I guess.  Since 6A, BD/WC/Carmel has won 63% of the titles.  

Fully transparent, I have a hard time getting enrollment data past 2017.  I did find a report for 2001-2, but most of it is archives and it has to be requested.  Do you have another source to obtain?  BTW, WC was not in the top 3 that year. NC was 3rd largest.

I know its much "simpler" to say the largest schools win all the titles.  (or 90%)  But its not that simple, and insinuating others are not as smart as you because they poke holes in your statements is simply lacking.

I would agree...you could see them looking so much better on the field.  Perhaps it was covid.  Definitely something changed.

So enrollment isn't a factor. Just say it. Programs from the MIC are just better because they do things "different." I concede. 

Edited July 6, 2024 by BTF

[temptation]

3 minutes ago, BTF said:

So enrollment isn't a factor. Just say it. Programs from the MIC are just better because they do things "different." I concede. 

Partially.  You should see a MIC head coaches’ “teaching schedule.”

You are falling into the “black and white trap” my friend.  There is a little bit of truth in what everyone in this thread is claiming, just a disagreement about the weight of weight variable.

You and I place a higher priority on enrollment, others don’t.  Doesn’t mean they are in denial.

Don’t get frustrated.  I’ve been trying to open folks’ eyes on here to the emphasis of socioeconomics for years…and it continues to fall on deaf ears.

Edited July 6, 2024 by temptation

[Footballking16]

14 minutes ago, BTF said:

So enrollment isn't a factor. Just say it. Programs from the MIC are just better because they do things "different." I concede. 

I put much more emphasis on MIC teams having much better athletes playing much better competition week in and week out when comparing them to Penn before screaming “enrollment”. Who is the last D1 player to come out of Penn? Where did he go?

[PDB26]

7 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I put much more emphasis on MIC teams having much better athletes playing much better competition week in and week out when comparing them to Penn before screaming “enrollment”. Who is the last D1 player to come out of Penn? Where did he go?

So far as p5-type programs go, I'm pretty sure it was Paul Moala. High school safety converted to LB, 2018 grad, played at ND, Idaho, GT. Looks like he's an undrafted free agent with the Bears going into his first camp. Before that, I think it was Braxton Cave. He was an '09 grad, played center at ND.

I said earlier in the thread that Penn and Carmel have the number of state championships that they do, largely, because they were able to avoid BD and WC or one or both of those programs was down for a bit. That might be an exaggeration, but Penn and Carmel are a combined 1-9 against those teams when meeting in the final. Carmel has played them closer but is still 0-5––I know they've gotten through BD and WC before when they've been all been in the south. When BD or WC are state championship good, look out.

[BLACKGOLD2007]

5 hours ago, BTF said:

Good post. I have a ton of respect for all said programs. I just don't think it hurts to say, "yeah, we have a somewhat of an advantage with our enrollment numbers." And I'm not even saying we need to dilute 6A down to 16 teams. I'm just saying, "be humble." No more, no less. 

Sure. All Schools should be humble. You never know when a Friday night could be your turn for a 50 point massacre. 

I made a T-shirt in High School directed at how much we (Penn) does not like our cross town rivals at Mishawaka...I put at the bottom, that it isn't about the numbers we are just better than you....not so humble...but we had not lost to Mishawaka in over 30 years at the time. In this specific case, numbers 100% help us, but at the same time top to bottom we were better than them. Coaching, training staff and players were all better than our counter parts. 

[temptation]

1 hour ago, PDB26 said:

So far as p5-type programs go, I'm pretty sure it was Paul Moala. High school safety converted to LB, 2018 grad, played at ND, Idaho, GT. Looks like he's an undrafted free agent with the Bears going into his first camp. Before that, I think it was Braxton Cave. He was an '09 grad, played center at ND.

I said earlier in the thread that Penn and Carmel have the number of state championships that they do, largely, because they were able to avoid BD and WC or one or both of those programs was down for a bit. That might be an exaggeration, but Penn and Carmel are a combined 1-9 against those teams when meeting in the final. Carmel has played them closer but is still 0-5––I know they've gotten through BD and WC before when they've been all been in the south. When BD or WC are state championship good, look out.

Technically Powlus III was a D1 guy right?

1 hour ago, PDB26 said:

So far as p5-type programs go, I'm pretty sure it was Paul Moala. High school safety converted to LB, 2018 grad, played at ND, Idaho, GT. Looks like he's an undrafted free agent with the Bears going into his first camp. Before that, I think it was Braxton Cave. He was an '09 grad, played center at ND.

I said earlier in the thread that Penn and Carmel have the number of state championships that they do, largely, because they were able to avoid BD and WC or one or both of those programs was down for a bit. That might be an exaggeration, but Penn and Carmel are a combined 1-9 against those teams when meeting in the final. Carmel has played them closer but is still 0-5––I know they've gotten through BD and WC before when they've been all been in the south. When BD or WC are state championship good, look out.

Warren has never lost in the football state championship game.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I put much more emphasis on MIC teams having much better athletes playing much better competition week in and week out when comparing them to Penn before screaming “enrollment”. Who is the last D1 player to come out of Penn? Where did he go?

Better athletes? Are kids bigger and faster in Indy than kids throughout the rest of the state? None of this adds up. The only difference between Ben Davis and Merrillville is enrollment. That's it. Carmel and Valpo........enrollment. Warren Central and Snider......enrollment. There are no other differences in those programs. If those northern programs had the same amount of kids that the three Indy schools do, would they have the same amount of state championships? That's an easy "yes."

You Indy fans are getting your feelings hurt because someone is willing to point out the obvious. No one is saying your programs aren't good down there. We're just stating that their is an obvious advantage over your competition. Jeffersonville, Harrison, and Portage will never be afforded the opportunity to stare at a trophy case with nine titles in it. The cards are stacked heavily against them. But that's OK, northern teams enjoy the challenge of breaking through and getting that "one".

Looking forward to the day when schools ranked 6 through 10 in enrollment win nine straight titles. But we can all agree that it will never happen.