SIAC 2021

[Cappy]

2 hours ago, MHSTigerFan said:

I’ve had Jasper as a wildcard.  I have thought that MD, MHS, and Castle will be duking it out for the title.  But I’ve also said that you can’t count Jasper out.

Speaking only for myself, the primary reason I’ve singled those 3 teams out is that they all return more from last year than Jasper does.

Of course, that can be an unreliable way to gauge a HS football team.  But we just don’t have much more to go on.

Did Castle lose a couple linemen to transfer? Did they start or play much last year for the Knights?

[TigerFan20]

1 hour ago, Cappy said:

Did Castle lose a couple linemen to transfer? Did they start or play much last year for the Knights?

They lost D1 lineman Kenny Butler, but return Myers and a few others

[TigerFan20]

Don’t know if this was posted, but it looks like former Central HC Sean Coultis moved to Florida 

[TigerFan20]

Massey Rating Preseason 

1. Central 9-0 

2.Castle 8-1 

3. Memorial, 7-2 

4. Jasper, 6-3 

5. Mater Dei, 5-4 

6. Reitz, 4-5

7. North, 3-6 

8. VL, 2-7 

9. Harrison, 2-7 

10. Bosse, 0-9 

Just like Calpreps, Massey most likely used metrics from last year and combined them future ones to determine these.

Week 1 opening lines 

Jasper at Memorial(-13.5) 

North at Castle(-15) 

Reitz(-14) at Harrison

Central(-14) at Mater Dei 

Bosse at VL(-10) 

[Spitting Llamas]

1 hour ago, TigerFan20 said:

Massey Rating Preseason 

1. Central 9-0 

2.Castle 8-1 

3. Memorial, 7-2 

4. Jasper, 6-3 

5. Mater Dei, 5-4 

6. Reitz, 4-5

7. North, 3-6 

8. VL, 2-7 

9. Harrison, 2-7 

10. Bosse, 0-9 

Just like Calpreps, Massey most likely used metrics from last year and combined them future ones to determine these.

Week 1 opening lines 

Jasper at Memorial(-13.5) 

North at Castle(-15) 

Reitz(-14) at Harrison

Central(-14) at Mater Dei 

Bosse at VL(-10) 

I'm not seeing Mater Dei as a 14 point dog at home to Central. The others I don't necessarily disagree with although I do think Memorial and Jasper could be closer than 13.5. 

[TigerFan20]

30 minutes ago, Spitting Llamas said:

I'm not seeing Mater Dei as a 14 point dog at home to Central. The others I don't necessarily disagree with although I do think Memorial and Jasper could be closer than 13.5. 

I could see North and Castle being somewhat closer. But Central going undefeated is such stretch, since they are a wildcard this season

[MHSTigerFan]

4 hours ago, TigerFan20 said:

I could see North and Castle being somewhat closer. But Central going undefeated is such stretch, since they are a wildcard this season

Yeah, those ratings aren’t far from useless.  It’s a tough thing to do at the high school level, really.  Too many teams to know in any way other than on paper.  Too much turnover.  Too much impact these days from sophs and even freshmen.

[TigerFan20]

12 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

Yeah, those ratings aren’t far from useless.  It’s a tough thing to do at the high school level, really.  Too many teams to know in any way other than on paper.  Too much turnover.  Too much impact these days from sophs and even freshmen.

Like Calpreps projecting us at 6th place, though we return like 20 starters

Edited July 5, 2021 by TigerFan20

[Spitting Llamas]

16 hours ago, TigerFan20 said:

Like Calpreps projecting us at 6th place, though we return like 20 starters

That's insane. I don't know that I've ever heard of a high school team with 20 returning starters. With the quality of talent returning Memorial should make a deep run in November. 

[TigerFan20]

17 minutes ago, Spitting Llamas said:

That's insane. I don't know that I've ever heard of a high school team with 20 returning starters. With the quality of talent returning Memorial should make a deep run in November. 

From my knowledge there were only 2 seniors starting, Pence and Vaughn, everyone else was juniors/sophomores. You could add DE Lucas Hoffman in, but he only played in the last 2 games of the season 

[TigerFan20]

Mater Dei should have a deep run again, the WeBo or TC will be tough teams to get by. 

Castle should have another run this season too, unless North has something up their sleeve 

Wouldn’t t count out Jasper making it to regionals, either Memorial or them will come out from S24

[Spitting Llamas]

Just now, TigerFan20 said:

Mater Dei should have a deep run again, the WeBo or TC will be tough teams to get by. 

Castle should have another run this season too, unless North has something up their sleeve 

Wouldn’t t count out Jasper making it to regionals, either Memorial or them will come out from S24

WeBo is up to 3A after winning 3 consecutive state titles. TC will be tough again but they lose a lot of their very very good big guys. Castle will make a run but what looms for them at semi state if they make it that far is probably unbeatable. If the Memorial offense can click without Pence then lookout for them. If Memorial can sling it a little but their two running backs and quality offensive line they will be very difficult to match up against and try to stop. 

[TigerFan20]

7 minutes ago, Spitting Llamas said:

WeBo is up to 3A after winning 3 consecutive state titles. TC will be tough again but they lose a lot of their very very good big guys. Castle will make a run but what looms for them at semi state if they make it that far is probably unbeatable. If the Memorial offense can click without Pence then lookout for them. If Memorial can sling it a little but their two running backs and quality offensive line they will be very difficult to match up against and try to stop. 

With us, the QB situation is somewhat the question mark this season. But it appears Caleb Ellpsermann will be the starter, not a big guy, but quick and is a hell of an athlete I have heard. Outside of Ellpsermann, we have 6’1 freshman Fisher and Schulz, too very good athletes. Then there’s Russel, but he might be utilized the way Stepto was in 2019. Regrading the O-line biggest one since 2017, believe the average is like 6’3 260. 
 

Checked TC’s roster too, looks like the do return some big guys, but I have no idea how good they will be

Edited July 6, 2021 by TigerFan20

[MHSTigerFan]

1 hour ago, TigerFan20 said:

From my knowledge there were only 2 seniors starting, Pence and Vaughn, everyone else was juniors/sophomores. You could add DE Lucas Hoffman in, but he only played in the last 2 games of the season 

Evan Quick also.

Memorial’s season is largely going to come down to how well Ellspermann does replacing Pence.  The good news is that he has 1.5+ games of experience - playing most of the last 3 quarters against VL and the entire Castle game.

[TigerFan20]

14 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

Evan Quick also.

Memorial’s season is largely going to come down to how well Ellspermann does replacing Pence.  The good news is that he has 1.5+ games of experience - playing most of the last 3 quarters against VL and the entire Castle game.

In which he did very well, matter of fact, I believe the 2 games he played, he had a combined 30/40 completed passes/passes attempted. And threw well over the line

[Spitting Llamas]

1 hour ago, TigerFan20 said:

With us, the QB situation is somewhat the question mark this season. But it appears Caleb Ellpsermann will be the starter, not a big guy, but quick and is a hell of an athlete I have heard. Outside of Ellpsermann, we have 6’1 freshman Fisher and Schulz, too very good athletes. Then there’s Russel, but he might be utilized the way Stepto was in 2019. Regrading the O-line biggest one since 2017, believe the average is like 6’3 260. 
 

Checked TC’s roster too, looks like the do return some big guys, but I have no idea how good they will be

Is the TC you are referring to Triton Central or Tell City?

[TigerFan20]

3 minutes ago, Spitting Llamas said:

Is the TC you are referring to Triton Central or Tell City?

Triton Central

 

[MHSTigerFan]

1 hour ago, TigerFan20 said:

In which he did very well, matter of fact, I believe the 2 games he played, he had a combined 30/40 completed passes/passes attempted. And threw well over the line

40 attempts in 7 quarters?

I don’t recall it being anywhere near that number.  But I do recall Caleb having a generally high completion percentage in those 2 games.

I’ll see if I can find the stats on Maxpreps.

[TigerFan20]

8 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

40 attempts in 7 quarters?

I don’t recall it being anywhere near that number.  But I do recall Caleb having a generally high completion percentage in those 2 games.

I’ll see if I can find the stats on Maxpreps.

Actually it was 27/33 which is insanely good 

82% for 243 yds in total for 7 quarters

Edited July 6, 2021 by TigerFan20

[MHSTigerFan]

1 minute ago, TigerFan20 said:

Actually it was 29/33 which is insanely good 

It is.  But it can be misleading, as many bubble screens as MHS runs - high complete rate but often for little or no gain.

What was his YPC?

FTR, I don’t want to sound down on him.  Caleb, first and foremost, is a genuinely great young man.  I don’t have a daughter - but if I did, he’s the kind of guy I’d want her to bring home.  Beyond that, he’s quick and athletic.  To me, at this point, the biggest questions will be about his arm and his ability to withstand hard contact.

Somebody mentioned O-line above.  I think MHS should be really good up front on both sides of the ball.  Vaughn is the only regular lineman we lose.  And, quite frankly, I thought we were better when Kelton Farmer was inside.

[TigerFan20]

18 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

What was his YPC?

Only 9 YPC

Someone mentioned this a while ago, but his arm strength has improved

Edited July 6, 2021 by TigerFan20

[Spitting Llamas]

41 minutes ago, TigerFan20 said:

Only 9 YPC

Someone mentioned this a while ago, but his arm strength has improved

If he averaged 9 yards per completion and only had six incompletions who cares that it was "only 9 YPC". That's almost 7.5 yards per attempt. Pretty sure you can get a lot of first downs that way. I know teams can start to creep up and take the short completion away but Memorial has enough playmakers outside to keep teams honest. 

[TigerFan20]

4 minutes ago, Spitting Llamas said:

If he averaged 9 yards per completion and only had six incompletions who cares that it was "only 9 YPC". That's almost 7.5 yards per attempt. Pretty sure you can get a lot of first downs that way. I know teams can start to creep up and take the short completion away but Memorial has enough playmakers outside to keep teams honest. 

You nailed that pretty good, the Collins/Russell/ Pearce/Norman combo will be tough to go against

[MHSTigerFan]

1 hour ago, TigerFan20 said:

You nailed that pretty good, the Collins/Russell/ Pearce/Norman combo will be tough to go against

Especially with the threat of Ellspermann on a QB draw or some other keeper.  He’s quick and elusive for a QB.  And he showed that a couple times last year.

That said, his backup might well be a freshman (assuming it’s not Russell).  So they may make a concerted effort for him to take as few hits as possible.

[TigerFan20]

13 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

Especially with the threat of Ellspermann on a QB draw or some other keeper.  He’s quick and elusive for a QB.  And he showed that a couple times last year.

That said, his backup might well be a freshman (assuming it’s not Russell).  So they may make a concerted effort for him to take as few hits as possible.

The backup will probably be Fisher or Schulz