Good analysis. Here are some thoughts:
1. Compare the offenses, there is nothing offensively that Miami does better. QB, receivers, running backs, offensive line
2. Compare the defenses. IU’s defense is straight nasty. Gave up 3 points to Alabama, 10 points to Ohio State, Oregon got 22 points, most in garbage time, Iowa 15 points, Illinois 10 points. Indiana has scored almost 500 more points than then their opponents, just ridiculous.
3. Special teams is a big edge to the Hoosiers.
4. Coaching is hugely tilted to IU, not even close.
5. Turnover margin is a big edge to IU.
Look, in a one game shot, sure, anything can happen. Miami deserves to be here. Miami gave up 27 points to Ole Miss when the Rebels only had the ball for 18 minutes of game time in which they gave up 398 yards to Ole Miss. That will not work against IU. How are they stopping IU?
Unless Indiana turns the ball over multiple times, which hasn’t happened all year, Indiana controls this game. I don’t see where Miami holds Indiana below 31 points at the minimum and I can’t see Miami scoring above 21 points in any scenario.