temptation

2:28 drive according to Google...North Judson by 60.

I am a firm believer in Sagarin in most cases and actually you can almost predict point spreads prior to their release by checking the Sagarin ratings. They are usually damn close. That being said, I do believe that college football boasts the biggest homefield advantage of any sport and its not even close. Just take a look at the top 10 this year. Georgia demolished Oregon (in Atlanta albeit) but that is practically a home game. They then rolled Tennessee in Athens. Michigan demolished a good Penn State team in Ann Arbor in a game that was not nearly as close as the score indicated. TCU (who should be third right now which pains me to say as a Michigan fan) bucked the trend a bit with their win in Austin but defeated good Kansas State and Oklahoma State teams at home. Tennessee rolled out the magic carpet on a Saturday afternoon and 100+ people willed them to victory over Alabama. Their road win at LSU bucked the trend and may actually be the best win in the country at the end of the season. USC's lone loss is to a good Utah team AT NIGHT on the road. LSU found the same magic that Tennessee did in winning over Bama in overtime in Death Valley at night. Clemson looked like a JV team at night against Notre Dame. Alabama is 3 plays away from 5-5, but also 3 plays away from 10-0. Their two road losses are by a combined 4 points and they needed tons of luck to escape in Austin in week 2. Utah lost in the swamp against what has turned out to be a mediocre Florida squad and lost at the Rose Bowl against UCLA. Winning on the road in college football is damn hard...even for great teams. I think Sagarin underestimates that.

While true and while this data just scratches the surface, 46+% is a far cry from the absolute @GOLDRUSH1985 claimed when making his original statement. Even were I to dig deeper and analyze the data in terms of shorter travel, I have a hard time believing it’d be enough of a difference to be statistically significant and I may even put my neck out there and say that those traveling two hours or more have a HIGHER win rate than those who don’t which would make his narrative completely explode.

Snider by 13.

Now you are asking too much… I’ve already done his homework for him, he can do the extra credit.

Did anyone honestly believe that the Temp was not going to do his homework and let @GOLDRUSH1985’s nonsense slide? I did his homework for him and can provide the data (though it is currently chicken scratch) upon request when time allows. Since 2002, (the last 20 IHSAA football tournaments) teams traveling 2+ hours (simply using Google Map data) are 54-62 in the semi-state round of competition. That’s a 46.6% winning percentage. Do with that data what you wish but prepare for the goal posts (pun completely intended) to be moved by our friend. #receipts

Familiarity with your surroundings, most often more crowd support than your opponent is a good place to start.

Once again, putting words in my mouth. Travel IS a factor, but a small one, especially in this case (2 hours). As I also already stated, its immeasurable. It's a story that has grown legs without sufficient evidence that can be proven. YES, I have coached and competed in interscholastic athletics for decades and have walked this plank in both roles. The home teams' advantages are obvious aren't they? The bus ride to the game is WAY down the list. Do we think HSE is going to watch "Remember the Titans" or "Friday Night Lights" on their warm, cushioned ride up I-69 on Friday afternoon? That is the question.

Ah, gotcha. SO not necessarily Marion County but those IPS schools inside of 465?

I think you are confused about public schools in Indianapolis.

Earlier you made the statement of ALL SEMISTATE games. Whiteland/Castle still qualifies. I expect HSE to win fairly handily but not by as big of a margin as I am expecting from Whiteland. I think Carroll will be slightly more competitive against HSE than Castle is against Whiteland.

I'd be shocked if HSE were not traveling up Friday night in a chartered bus...

He/she is obviously referring to public/county schools and the word "awful" is hyperbole. (Also, I am just glad HSE only has an 1:45 bus ride or they'd be screwed according to @GOLDRUSH1985...hope they don't get stuck in traffic for 15 minutes.) If so, might as well GIVE Carroll the game.

I'm going to pick against Monrovia one more time and possibly regret it Saturday morning.

Same. It just doesn't feel like a true "state championship game" to me if both participants are within 30 minutes of downtown Indy. Maybe I am alone in that thinking. Go Chargers!

Don't put words in my mouth. I stated that in this specific case, it won't make much of a difference. Its actually not really provable so anyone can throw out theories. You can't point to a fumble, a missed tackle, an interception or a kick that misses wide left as being due to travel. Its an overstated built in excuse/idiom that has grown legs over time. Sports are filled with them. "Its tough to beat a team three times." "Two quarterbacks mean you really don't have one." I could go on all day. These are high school kids. Two hours is round trip to the grocery store in some rural places. Don't overthink it. Side note, check the other thread. I have Whiteland "overcoming" a long bus ride to Newburgh and rolling Castle. Correct. I have done the same and am over twice the age of anyone playing Friday night. How do they ever do it in Texas, Florida and California?

Then I am sure you can reference 40 years of games off the top of your head. Go for it...otherwise you are just a poser. Got their e-mails? Go for it. The burden of proof is on you.

I see a 35-17 type game in favor of HSE. (And I promise, I hope I am wrong @BTF.)

Asking the wrong guy. @GOLDRUSH1985, you're on the clock.

Obviously with such a bold statement, you've got data to back it up. Mind sharing your 40 year old spreadsheet?

Somebody forgot to tell Mater Dei and Lawrenceburg about the long bus rides last weekend huh? I too like Snider but the 2 hours bus ride has nothing to do with it.

Point made.

Whiteland rolls as long as they get off the bus ready to play. There are FIVE Mid-State teams superior to Castle.

Still irrelevant. Anybody got time to dig up @Piratefan101's receipts about Valpo from the preseason?

Hoping but not picking with you head I hope.