This is pretty funny. On one hand you say the experts who do this for a living know what they're doing but then you talk about CG kids who didn't excel where the experts put them. So is it okay to second-guess the experts or not? Rather than just make blanket statements I could tell you the whys and why nots of each of the kids you mentioned but I doubt you are interested in the real stories so I won't bother.
Van Alstyne in over his head... LOL.