Understand the statement and the number you settled on, for sure, however, your premise is based on old school college athletics. Many of your same data you used to describe Purdue was what many said about IU before the 1st game of the season. Do not short change coaching and culture change, many would argue losing many players off a very poor team is a good thing, but if you just soley focus on loss of Theillman and TE (name escapes me at OSU) as 2 examples of doom and gloom, I think that is short sighted too.
Is Nitro Tuggle a player? Many thought so and so did Georgia, seems like a talented WR, my point is who knows what this will actually look like, but I do know, it seems based on connections I have who would have a pulse of things (they were dead on with last regime, I believe I was told, Circus, Chaos first 6 months on campus) Coach Odom and his staff have changed some of the narratives coming out, more substance vs fake swag stuff from previous staff. Time will tell.