Basementbias

4 hours ago, BTF said:

Good point, I did open the door to the outside of Toledo. I'm not sure what what Toledo has to offer other than being a big market in a state where the overall quality of football probably exceeds Indiana. 

Back in 2012 Toledo Whitmer beat the Jaylon Smith state champion Luers team 20-3. Snider only beat Luers 10-7 that same year before representing the north in 5a when it was still the biggest division. Columbus Harley wasted the Knights 40-7 that same year also. When little Coldwater came into Fort Wayne about a decade ago, they beat Elmhurst with just as much ease as the SAC's bigger schools did. I just think the bar is a little higher when you cross the border. Something tells me that Toledo is on the same level as the SAC or higher, without even doing the research. 

Hockey is big in Fort Wayne and Toledo, it's not uncommon to draw 8000 fans at either venue. It's vicious and the fans travel well. I think that could carry over to the high school football level. 

Being a Stateline guy closer to MAC land than Toledo, the top MAC teams could give the SAC teams problems. Might be right on Toledo as I don't follow them heavily up there. Just seems the most success is CC up there. Though as has been shown, the SAC struggles with the Indy teams so they could struggle with Whitmer, Woodward, Scott, Start, & etc. Dealing with Whitmer in youth sports not football  (wrestling) in Ohio, they usually will show up to bully us small schools if they can. No surprise they chose smaller but talented Luers to play.

2 minutes ago, BTF said:

Good matchup for sure, but it's defeating the purpose of this thread. 

You mentioned Coldwater and Marion Local is right next door. Outside of Central Catholic, not sure the top end is necessarily there in Toledo. 

3 hours ago, BTF said:

Fort Wayne vs Toledo

Downtowns are separated by an hour and a half. The Komets vs Walleye is vicious and the fans travel well. Fort Wayne and Toledo need to schedule some football games. I like that the SAC has dug into the Indy market as Week 1 this fall looks to be very entertaining. Week 2 in my opinion should be all about Toledo. Indy has regular hookups with Cincinnati and Louisville, Fort Wayne needs to do the same with Toledo. Furthermore, Luers needs to hook up with Coldwater, OH. Coldwater's impression of Fort Wayne can't be that good after obliterating Elmhurst by halftime several years back. 

Although the Miners prospects vs the team from Akron doesn't look to promising, it did inspire me to create this post.  

Might want to go Luers vs Marion Local even. 

Love to get lacrosse popular here in NE Indiana. Love watching the sport and being part of something new. Could Sixes be an option for 1A/2A type schools? Go Hopkins! We Want More!

Will they be consolidating Southwood & Northfield? Keep hearing rumors of it.

1 hour ago, Grover said:

Okay thanks.  I could be wrong about him winning.  I'm pretty sure he was from AC.  I was in middle school.  State finals were at Southport.  I'm old.   Memory is slipping.

Looked it up on Indianamat to verify. I'm not very well liked over there! 😄

4 hours ago, Grover said:

Assuming that is Adams Central...I remember a heavyweight winning state in the 70s that I think was from AC but I'm not sure.  Was the guy you referenced a heavyweight?

No I believe he was our first Placer finishing 4th in 77. Our only champ was in 1985 at 105lbs.

Be nice if football is 350 not 325 for 1A. Just want to split the 3 county schools up into 1A, 2A, & 3A for awhile. 

1 hour ago, whiteshoes said:

So much for the 'success factor"   LOL

Can't say anything because we've benefited as well. Just so happened that Lutheran has been better the last 2 state championship games. The 1st game was pretty close & feel like we let that one slip away. This past fall is a different story. We felt more like Southwood did yesterday on the court. Don't forget Lutheran had an individual wrestling state champion as well. That's really hard to do anymore as as a 1A school. AC has a rich wrestling tradition for years and we only have 1 state champion wrestler before I was born and I'll be 33 come December. 

They could be on track to match Luers if so. Impressive to say the least. Definitely have to be the favorites again this fall for their 3rd straight.

Congrats on the position and best of luck in the rebuild. The ACAC needs Southern Wells back to their winning ways.

Wouldn't it make more sense to have 2 or 3 based on school size? Get more kids exposure by doing 1&2, 3&4, & 5&6A and make one N/S, another E/W, and whatever else.

18 hours ago, Hughes said:

Must be a big job listed twice on the Head Coaches opening 2023.

Wondering if that was Southern Wells, but now I don't see that posting. 

8 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students.  Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students.  That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70.  And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year.  

Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells.  The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford.  The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook.  Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256.  That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year.  Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185.  In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district.

SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37.  Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district.  81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW.  Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160.  Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle).

In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford.  They have a net transfer rate of -281.  270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central.  AC has a net transfer rate of +279.  I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs.  That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams.  SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.

Yes, that's what's pushing us to 2A. The academics and athletics together are making it hard to find housing in the AC district. Bellmont is suffering from that Chicago transplant decision as rural farm families don't feel safe sending their children to Bellmont. Law enforcement that I know have said it's a major headache on their end.

As for Blackford, I'm not surprised as the economics haven't been the best around there. I'd lump parts of Western Jay and Southern Wells in as well. 

On 1/8/2023 at 10:26 AM, HoopsCoach said:

Southern Wells is not closing and really isn’t in jeopardy of potential closure any time soon.  That was a rumor that got started several years ago by some people in the district who wanted to make sure the tax referendum would pass.  Fear is a common motivator used to drum up votes and when some of the tight wad farmers in the district raised opposition to the referendum, the rumor got started that the school would close if it didn’t pass.  The tax referendum passed then, and it was just renewed in the November election, which will continue to help with funding.  The enrollment at the elementary level has gone up this year with the closure of Montpelier Elementary and there seems to be some optimism that things will get better down the road.

Back to the main topic, SW‘s program has been struggling because they haven’t been able to develop any significant investment from their athletes.  Many choose not to play football, and several who play have little interest in working to get better.  Some certainly do, but not enough to turn the cultural around and get the support they had in the LeFebvre era.  The ACAC does not have anywhere near the depth of the MAC in football, so the opportunity to win games and get athletes to buy in is much more likely at SW.  It’s tough to build belief in the program if the wins don’t come, and Parkway faces a greater challenge to get those wins than SW.

If Parkway was the 8th member of the ACAC, I would be more optimistic that they could win more games than SW.  A move to the ACAC would probably benefit Parkway, and if they aren’t winning enough games in the MAC to get into the tournament in Ohio anyway, what would they have to lose?  At least they could win some games and build some optimism for the future.  That being said, I don’t think a move to an Indiana conference is a realistic possibility.  I know schools from Illinois have played in an Indiana conference, but I’m not familiar with any from Ohio.  Indiana schools could easily do it since we have an all-in tournament.  SW doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for the tournament, so that is one less obstacle to turning their fortunes around.

Glad to hear enrollment has gone up, as that was more of the rumor I heard than economics. I know closing of Pennville Elementary in Jay County was a hope to increase enrollment, but didn't seem like they got as much as they hoped. The rumor was that more kids were deciding to enroll at Bluffton than Southern Wells. How bad does the Montpelier closure hurt Blackford?

6 minutes ago, Gipper said:

The trend is southward as I expect Lowell's and Cedar Lake's populations (as well as LHS and Hanover Central's enrollments) to increase.

That's different. Decatur is on the other side of the state close to Ohio. Local real estate group gets paid to bring them into basically section 8 apartments. 

2 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

This is interesting news.  I have family on my wife's side that would be in the know about this; I'll ask around, or have her ask, and see what comes back.

Coaching-wise, I would probably pick SW due to the fact that their success has been more recent.  Maybe parents/community would be more apt to buy-in if the new guy made some progress? Another factor could be that, besides AC & SA, the ACAC might not be quite as tough of a conference as what Parkway has to deal with?

It would be sad if SW would close and hopefully those rumblings are wrong. I'd like to see them get back to competing at the top of the conference. I tend to agree that SW may be better due to not having to play state championship teams like Coldwater, Marion Local, and etc on a weekly basis.

This comparison will probably limit most since one school is in Ohio. The comparison is Southern Wells and Parkway (Rockford) OH. Both have been at or near the bottom of their conferences. Each are close to me, and looking for a new coach. 

Southern Wells has a history of success. 2001 1A state champs and probably could have won in 2000 if they didn't blow it to my Jets that became state champs that year. During my HS days they were battling for 1st/2nd/3rd with Heritage & AC as well as Garrett. They ended my career and made it semi state losing to the juggernaut that was/is Sheridan. However in recent times they've struggled to field a varsity team and haven't won much at all. Plus there are rumblings that the school could close.

Parkway is in the mighty MAC that is the best small school football conference in Ohio and one of the best in the country. Parkway won the first conference crown and a couple more after. However that was in the early to mid 70s. It's been downhill ever since. They are the only school in the conference for football without a state title after New Bremen won in 2020 (NB won this year as well). Their schedule is brutal for the conference slate and they've had a tough time making the playoffs. Also seems like they do not have the athletes or enough of them like their conference foes.

So if you were a potential coach, what is the better job? Which is the tougher rebuild?

1 hour ago, FlyingHigh said:

It would add one win to your schedule. Bellmont was 0-2 against the ACAC in 2022 and those weren’t competitive games. The only team besides Southern Wells that Bellmont might have beaten is Jay County (according to what I saw this season and Sagarin) and I highly doubt that would’ve happened. 
 

Bellmont people may say they think they’re “too good” for the ACAC, but what it is is they’d rather be embarrassingly awful in the NE8 than lose conference races to county rivals every year. The Decatur people always have excuses and don’t want to accept that they’re much much lower than the “redneck” smaller schools in the county. There have been years where many Bellmont fans and families have claimed they would’ve beaten AC had they played later in the football season…after losing by 40+ in week 1. That’s the type of people we’re dealing with. They will never join the ACAC no matter how much it might make sense. I’m glad Bellmont dropped AC from their schedule for a number of reasons (don’t have to deal with their idiotic, delusional community), but first and foremost because it allows AC to find someone that might actually make them work a little bit. Garrett doesn’t seem to be that solution but they were far better than Bellmont. 

Have to be careful how I talk about Bellmont given my situation. You see I'm an AC guy, but have or had family at all 3 Adams County schools as well as our neighboring Ohio schools. Also part of the youth program that serves AC & Bellmont football. Though what I hoped what would happen with Bellmont has been the exact opposite in about every aspect of this current regime. It's disheartening & disappointing to say the least. However, I'm a St. Mary’s Township kid through and through that's closer to Decatur than Monroe. I'm a River Rat of Pleasant Mills & Rivare (Bobo) with heavy Willshire & Wren Ohio influences. My family did fight the consolidation of Pleasant Mills with Adams Central and the other township schools of Kirkland, French, Monroe, parts of Washington, and Blue Creek (those are our buddies in Salem). That being said, I'm not a fan of some of our AC people in the French/ southern Kirkland Township areas as well as the west end of Monroe in the new housing additions. I can get along better with some of those Decatur folk than them. Not all though. Same can be said with some Berne & Geneva folks being the same way.

Could be a good 1A rival for South Adams in the future as I hope they stay in 1A for enrollment with an eventual short bump to 2A for success factor & bumping back down. AC will more than likely stay 2A in the future due to enrollment. Hopefully Bellmont stays 3A so all 3 are in separate classes from here on out. Will LCC go down to 1A with Pioneer & Sheridan? North in the future could be LCC, Pioneer, Sheridan,  South Adams, and Blackhawk Christian depending on SF bumps. Maybe AC if their enrollment would take a hit for some reason. 

18 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

Curious as to what's attracting the Chicagoans to Decatur?  Relocated manufacturing or something like that?

Property management group is getting $ to relocate them. Illinois is paying people to move from Chicago as they can't afford them long term. Probably why you aren't seeing much done about their gun/gang violence & homicide numbers.

3 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

The DOE released enrollment numbers for this fall (Sept ‘22) and AC would be in 2A by enrollment.  Just barely, but they would be.  It won’t matter because they will get back to the state finals next year and bump up by success factor.

I think the AG’s post about shaking up the sectionals was referencing Blackhawk being in a 1A sectional starting in 2023 since they are already an eligible member school.  I think Blackhawk would join sectional 44, then Madison-Grant could move to sectional 45.

Yep our Jets will be 2A next cycle either by enrollment or success factor. Our enrollment keeps growing as families are leaving Bellmont due to the Chicago natives moving into Decatur. Also some AC alums in other surrounding school districts not finding the rare available house in AC district as well.

20 minutes ago, Basementbias said:

My thoughts are that it's either Blackhawk Christian or Blackford leaving the CIC if the ACAC goes to 8. No way will Bellmont leave the NE 8 even though it would currently benefit them in football. They're followers feel that the ACAC is beneath them, especially wrestling. Just ask on Indiana mat.

Their* dang phone drives me nuts.

My thoughts are that it's either Blackhawk Christian or Blackford leaving the CIC if the ACAC goes to 8. No way will Bellmont leave the NE 8 even though it would currently benefit them in football. They're followers feel that the ACAC is beneath them, especially wrestling. Just ask on Indiana mat.

6 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

I know folk that attend Blackhawk's church.  Did they only do 1 season of 8-man?  Gonna be a big jump.  Might get a few wins in the ACAC.  First season could be a hefty learning curve.  Does anyone know what their attendance numbers are?  What class would they be in?  Assume 1A or 2A.

Yes, one year of 8 man and now a jump up. Not sure how long they'll have to wait to compete in the IHSAA. I would say probably 1A. I believe they're 2A in hoops because of SF.