Footballking16

It's been 2+ months since Carroll has seen Snider and North Side.

I watched the telecast replay against Jeff. Wasn’t impressed. Jeff wins that game if it weren’t for brutal coaching and terrible clock management. I’ve seen HSE play. I know the caliber of opponents that HSE has played all year and throughout the tournament. It’s night and day better than what Carroll has seen and Carroll will not present a challenge that will overwhelm HSE. HSE should be able to do what they want, when they want offensively and their defense will present a tough challenge for Carroll. But time will tell and that is ultimately why they play the game.

Because (it is of my opinion) that HSE is a much better football team than Carroll. And I mean that in the least disrespectful way possible.

Aren't you the one who brought travel into the equation?

Then what's the fuss? Aren't you the one that stated HSE was at a big disadvantage due to traveling? I wouldn't exactly call HSE and Carroll on equal footing.

At the end of the day it's a Jimmy's and Joe's thing. I could see the home team having the slight advantage if both teams were on equal footing, but at the end of the day a 2 hour bus ride isn't going to negate a night and day talent disparity

At the end of the day it's a Jimmy's and Joe's thing. I could see the home team having the slight advantage if both teams were on equal footing, but at the end of the day a 2 hour bus ride isn't going to negate a night and day talent disparity. I think HSE is 3+ scores better than Carroll and at the end of the day wouldn't matter if the game was played in Fort Wayne, Fishers, or on a different continent.

Warsaw went 7-2 and didn't beat a soul. They were pummeled by the two hardest toughest teams they played. Warsaw played the second easiest schedule of any 6A team in the state and didn't face a single 6A team the entire regular season. They made it to the sectional final by virtue of playing of playing another team who also wouldn't have qualified under my proposal. In a single elimination format, mathematically somebody had to win that game.

The 03 and 04 teams were very good. Nowhere near as big as this years team and even more one dimensional if you can believe it, but they were as physical as they came. 4A top to bottom probably tougher back then, Roncalli wasn't playing Shortridge and Attucks in sectionals back then.

Like the Brownsburg rematch, I expect this game to be a lot lower scoring and points may be at a premium. Irish run game and defense have come alive the last few weeks. If Cathedral takes care of the ball I like them in a nail bitter. I think they will. 17-14 Cathedral.

Not taking anything personal. A statistical improbability doesn't change my mind nor rationale that the current format is inherently flawed. A tournament that doesn't recognize regular season success will always enhance the probability of a slim outcome occurring and Monrovia is the prime example.

That's my approach and the numbers once again prove what I've been saying for years and a statistical improbability doesn't change the fact or narrative that the current format is flawed. It'd be akin to a public health official coming out and saying it's a myth that jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge is dangerous because one person one time survived. Sadly, people would believe it.

-78 first round match-ups that pitted a top half Sagarin team vs a bottom half Sagarin rated team. Bottom half teams went 2-76 and both promptly lost the next round. -Monrovia was the ONLY bottom half Sagarin team in the entire state to advance to a sectional final by virtue of beating a top half Sagarin team. Literally a statistical anomaly. They also drew the worst rated team in the entire class by virtue of a postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. -A run like Monrovia is on happens once in a blue moon, they’d happen even less if the IHSAA put on a tournament that acknowledged a 2.5 month regular season took place prior. Keeping a flawed postseason for the sake of a statistical anomaly doesn’t make sense, it never will. This exercise I believe has run its course and the numbers don’t lie. They never have. Add a tenth regular season game, eliminate half the field at the conclusion of the regular season, acknowledge, reward, and seed teams based on regular season success just as it’s done everywhere else and hope for a better, more competitive tournament throughout.

I’ve discussed them ad nauseam in this very thread. I’ve even congratulated them. Did you conveniently forget that Monrovia played not only the worst team in their sectional, but the worst team in 3A in their first round matchup? That doesn’t happen in a postseason format that rewards regular season success.

Warsaw beat a fellow bottom half Sagarin rated team (Elkhart) to advance to the sectional final due to a flaw in the current postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. Neither should have been in the tournament to begin with under my proposal and in any format that recognizes regular season success would have faced Penn or Carroll in the opening round.

IPS schools have been notoriously bad for years at football. They need to co-op into 2 teams. IPS EAST and IPS WEST

Gotcha. Yes its been several decades since the IPS schools were "good" at football.

Are you talking specifically inside 465 or Indianapolis proper? Marion County isn't confined to the inside of 465. LN, LC, Ben Davis, Warren, etc all have Indianapolis addresses but are located just outside the loop. They're township schools. Roncalli is another Indy school located just south of 465 but with an Indianapolis address. Lutheran is just outside the loop as well.

Goal post width is different between high school and college by almost 5 feet.

Doesn't affect me, don't have to worry about parking as I can walk from the office. Tech has same venue constraints as Arlington does (no visiting side concessions or bathrooms) but it's a field turf so there won't (shouldn't be at least) any complaints from the CG faithful as we know that's the root of the issue. Will be interesting to see how many show on the visiting side this go around. Visiting stands weren't even half full last time the Trojans played at Tech.

How many sectional finalist advanced by beating top half rated teams? If you’re referring to Pike Central, somebody out of that quadrant had to make the sectional finals given the nature of how a single elimination tournament works. Pike Central was the winner of this flawed system in this specific scenario.

CalPreps and Massey are computer rankings that factor in out of state competition. Chatard was a top 10 team in both and would have effortlessly qualified for a playoff format that effectively cut the field in half. *And if you’ve followed throughout, I’ve acknowledged Sagarin likely wouldn’t be the formula the IHSAA uses as it doesn’t factor out of state opponents. I personally used Sagarin because it’s readily accessible and through John Harrell’s website ranks each sectional by Sagarin.

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin. They are an extreme outlier in this case study. Bottom half Sagarin rated teams went 2-76 in the first round against top half Sagarin rated teams. That’s par for the course. Monrovia didn’t factor into that first round figure because due to a flaw in the postseason format played the worst team not only in their sectional, but in 3A. Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome, but it doesn’t change the fact the postseason format is broken. The numbers speak for themself.

Cody might have to go into witness protection.

Cathedral holds on. 14-7