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MIC Powershift Away From BD/WC Gaining Speed

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Based on the recent recruiting rankings over the past several years, BD and WC are not developing talent like they used to.

In my view, both Center Grove and Carmel have replaced the Big Two at the top of the MIC, and I expect the gap to widen based on current trends.

Reviewing classes 20, 21 and 22, WC has zero players in the 247 Indiana Top Prospects Report     BD has 1.

During this same period, CG has 5 players listed, while Carmel leads the conference with 6.  

Lawrence North is surging as well, with several players listed over the 3 year period.

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

Why are BD/WC slipping?  Lack of continuity in coaching ranks?  Problems in the feeder systems?  Kids moving out to next level suburbs?  Demographic-Socioeconomic issues impacting BD and WC more the CG and CA?  

With North Central now a contender, and LN showing signs of becoming a threat, there is potentially more parity in The MIC than ever before.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Temptation said:

It begins, and ends with socioeconomics.

Plain and simple.

I believe the coaching has slipped as well at both schools.

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34 minutes ago, DT said:

I believe the coaching has slipped as well at both schools.

Not saying I disagree necessarily but would love to hear more as of why this is your belief?

Kirschner to Simmons is fairly straightforward but why Warren?

 

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2 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Not saying I disagree necessarily but would love to hear more as of why this is your belief?

Kirschner to Simmons is fairly straightforward but why Warren?

 

After your explanation on socioeconomic impact on both programs.  

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Posted (edited)
On 4/21/2020 at 5:40 PM, DT said:

Based on the recent recruiting rankings over the past several years, BD and WC are not developing talent like they used to.

In my view, both Center Grove and Carmel have replaced the Big Two at the top of the MIC, and I expect the gap to widen based on current trends.

Reviewing classes 20, 21 and 22, WC has zero players in the 247 Indiana Top Prospects Report     BD has 1.

During this same period, CG has 5 players listed, while Carmel leads the conference with 6.  

Lawrence North is surging as well, with several players listed over the 3 year period.

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

Why are BD/WC slipping?  Lack of continuity in coaching ranks?  Problems in the feeder systems?  Kids moving out to next level suburbs?  Demographic-Socioeconomic issues impacting BD and WC more the CG and CA?  

With North Central now a contender, and LN showing signs of becoming a threat, there is potentially more parity in The MIC than ever before.  

 

 

It’s not all about recruits. Sure training and building players is important which I’m sure CG, Carmel, and BD, Warren do. Sometimes it’s just genetics and based on what kids are in your program at that time. Warren and BD will always be at the top and the top programs in the state. Right along with Carmel and Cg. Let’s not start getting ahead of ourselves now

Edited by Indiana Fan

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4 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

It’s not all about recruits. Sure training and building players is important which I’m sure CG, Carmel, and BD, Warren do. Sometimes it’s just genetics and based on what kids are in your program at that time. Warren and BD will always be at the top and the top programs in the state. Right along with Carmel and Cg. Let’s not start getting ahead of ourselves now

I see it differently.  Talent is talent, and the recruiting services are overwhelmingly favoring CG and CA players over those from BD and WC.  The Giants and Warriors will always be in the mix due to their huge numbers and great positional depth.  But the elite players are disappearing.  I would be alarmed if I were a WC fan and was confronted with this reality.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DT said:

After your explanation on socioeconomic impact on both programs.  

This is fairly obvious as population shifts and urban sprawl are real.  Both townships have gone to universal free meals because greater than 80% of their kids qualified anyway.

The impact of socio economics, support systems, and home life on athletics cannot be understated.  You know this already.  Even football is not immune.

You and I have both been predicting the HCC to take over in the coming years. It’s common sense.

Look at the data. A free and reduced lunch rate of over 50 percent is hard to overcome.

80%+ is a death sentence but Ben Davis and Warren can overcome it due to sheer numbers.

CG and Arsenal Tech nearly have the same enrollment.  One is a state powerhouse and the other a bottom feeder.  Wonder why?

Now that I’ve stated it, expand upon your “slippage in coaching.”

 

Edited by Temptation

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Posted (edited)

Many kids in Warren and Wayne Township are failing to have basic needs met.  They are struggling to put food on the table, come from  single-parent households where they have to take care of siblings, have to get jobs and transportation to and from practice is certainly an issue.

Extracurriculars like athletics are far off the radar for many of the kids.

Working class families are moving into the suburbs.

New Pal, Mount Vernon, HSE, Fishers, Zionsville, Westfield, Avon and Brownsburg are the programs of the future.

Their commitment to athletics has stepped his game up recently, no?  It’s not a coincidence.

You are a smart guy. You take a lot of flack on here but you knew these answers already.  You just wanted to have someone else state it for you.

Edited by Temptation

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32 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Many kids in Warren and Wayne Township are failing to have basic needs met.  They are struggling to put food on the table, come from  single-parent households where they have to take care of siblings, have to get jobs and transportation to and from practice is certainly an issue.

Extracurriculars like athletics are far off the radar for many of the kids.

Working class families are moving into the suburbs.

New Pal, Mount Vernon, HSE, Fishers, Zionsville, Westfield, Avon and Brownsburg are the programs of the future.

Their commitment to athletics has stepped his game up recently, no?  It’s not a coincidence.

You are a smart guy. You take a lot of flack on here but you knew these answers already.  You just wanted to have someone else state it for you.

Not necessarily.  I believe the perception has existed for decades that due to sheer size and natural talent, BD and WC were immune from the negative consequences of poor socio economics.  Perhaps reality has caught up with the two programs.  

With regards to coaching, I have two main observations.  Warren Central lacks a specific style identity, and they continue to be an undisciplined group overall.  The perception at Warren has been that you throw a bag of footballs on the field, blow a whistle and you are guaranteed double digit wins.  A little bit like U of Miami in the 80s.  Warren i surrounded by ever growing communities, and perhaps that encroachment is starting to have an impact on the program.  Fact is, prior staffs developed D1 players by the dozens.  The current staff is not doing that.  

At Ben Davis, the program has lost its ability to intimidate opponents.  BD Stadium is no longer a scary place to play for opponents, perhaps because it is 75% empty for home games.  Coach Simmons does not have a very good overall record.  Maybe he is just in over his head.  

 

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2 hours ago, DT said:

Not necessarily.  I believe the perception has existed for decades that due to sheer size and natural talent, BD and WC were immune from the negative consequences of poor socio economics.  Perhaps reality has caught up with the two programs.  

With regards to coaching, I have two main observations.  Warren Central lacks a specific style identity, and they continue to be an undisciplined group overall.  The perception at Warren has been that you throw a bag of footballs on the field, blow a whistle and you are guaranteed double digit wins.  A little bit like U of Miami in the 80s.  Warren i surrounded by ever growing communities, and perhaps that encroachment is starting to have an impact on the program.  Fact is, prior staffs developed D1 players by the dozens.  The current staff is not doing that.  

At Ben Davis, the program has lost its ability to intimidate opponents.  BD Stadium is no longer a scary place to play for opponents, perhaps because it is 75% empty for home games.  Coach Simmons does not have a very good overall record.  Maybe he is just in over his head.  

 

Agree with your first paragraph.  However, numbers will keep them relevant/competitive state wide.

Coaches get too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they don’t.  Coaching is much more difficult at BD/WC Monday through Thursday but easier on Friday when you have superior talent on the field most of the time.  The best coaching occurs way before Friday night at 7pm.

Not sure you can lay it at the feet of the staff as things have changed, just in the last 10 years even.  Your goal at these two places is to keep the train on the tracks six days per week and then go full steam on Friday nights.

Attendance, in general, is down in the MIC and we could debate why for hours.  That’s a non factor either way in my opinion.
 

 

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33 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Agree with your first paragraph.  However, numbers will keep them relevant/competitive state wide.

Coaches get too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they don’t.  Coaching is much more difficult at BD/WC Monday through Thursday but easier on Friday when you have superior talent on the field most of the time.  The best coaching occurs way before Friday night at 7pm.

Not sure you can lay it at the feet of the staff as things have changed, just in the last 10 years even.  Your goal at these two places is to keep the train on the tracks six days per week and then go full steam on Friday nights.

Attendance, in general, is down in the MIC and we could debate why for hours.  That’s a non factor either way in my opinion.
 

 

BD lost its swagger when it dropped the Penn series.  Both programs have been diminished since the series ended

 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, DT said:

BD lost its swagger when it dropped the Penn series.  Both programs have been diminished since the series ended

 

Coincidence.  You are reaching here.  We’ve stated reasons for BD’s “decline” (if you can call it that seeing how they won state in 2017, lol.)

Penn is a bit more of a head scratcher for me.  SES numbers are decent and 3000+ kids should be an annual semi state trip out of the north at minimum.  They’ve gotten there on a regular basis (and even farther) but it’s been a NO CONTEST on most occasions.

I cut Warren a little slack on your “identity” claim.  Sure they’ve gone away from the wing t days as they have changed coaches and personnel has changed.  However, their identity is still skill position players that are dangerous.  Their projected starting QB bolting a week before the opener along with losing Bell and Elliott was a lot to overcome last fall.

Edited by Temptation

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45 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Penn is a bit more of a head scratcher for me.  SES numbers are decent and 3000+ kids should be an annual semi state trip out of the north at minimum.  They’ve gotten there on a regular basis (and even farther) but it’s been a NO CONTEST on most occasions.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that Penn’s NIC schedule holds them back, and prevents them from “being all they can be.” Do you subscribe to that theory? 

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15 hours ago, DT said:

Not necessarily.  I believe the perception has existed for decades that due to sheer size and natural talent, BD and WC were immune from the negative consequences of poor socio economics.  

  Fact is, prior staffs developed D1 players by the dozens.  The current staff is not doing that.  

 

 

Very valid points. I think a necessary data point that's missing though is how much of BD's and WC's recent D1 talent (say past 10 years) actually lived in their school districts. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them were bused out from IPS or other Township districts. Maybe the talent well in those districts has dried up recently or kids are no longer seeing the need to get to WC or BD to get a D1 scholarship. 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bobref said:

The conventional wisdom seems to be that Penn’s NIC schedule holds them back, and prevents them from “being all they can be.” Do you subscribe to that theory? 

Nope.  New Pal has disproven that recently.

MIC teams love to play the “grind of the MIC” card in either direction to fit their narrative every November.

If they win the title, the grind of the MIC “prepared them for the tournament.”

If they lose, the grind of the MIC “took its toll.”

You can’t have it both ways.

Edited by Temptation

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1 hour ago, Temptation said:

Nope.  New Pal has disproven that recently.

MIC teams love to play the “grind of the MIC” card in either direction to fit their narrative every November.

If they win the title, the grind of the MIC “prepared them for the tournament.”

If they lose, the grind of the MIC “took its toll.”

You can’t have it both ways.

Whats the rumpass?  You lost me.  

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

The conventional wisdom seems to be that Penn’s NIC schedule holds them back, and prevents them from “being all they can be.” Do you subscribe to that theory? 

Its talent, or the lack thereof.  Elkhart is outproducing Penn when it comes to D1 talent.  Penn just does not have the players it used to.  

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23 minutes ago, DT said:

Whats the rumpass?  You lost me.  

Its talent, or the lack thereof.  Elkhart is outproducing Penn when it comes to D1 talent.  Penn just does not have the players it used to.  

Responding to the notion that Penn’s SOS/conference slate is to blame for their slipping.

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1 minute ago, Temptation said:

Responding to the notion that Penn’s SOS/conference slate is to blame for their slipping.

Penn is fully self aware that The NIC is a detriment to its long term success.  

They've tried unsuccessfully to join The DAC , and have likely given thought to independence.

Geography and time zones have them in a box.

And now EHS is lurking.

 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, DT said:

Penn is fully self aware that The NIC is a detriment to its long term success.  

They've tried unsuccessfully to join The DAC , and have likely given thought to independence.

Geography and time zones have them in a box.

And now EHS is lurking.

 

Why is it a detriment in your opinion?  Player development?  Something else?

Kids want to be part of a winning program and Penn being in the NIC guarantees that.  

If it’s a lack of competition preparing them for the postseason that you are insinuating, then how has New Pal managed to dominate despite being in a conference that limits their level of competition week in and week out?

Just not buying it.

Edited by Temptation

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5 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Why is it a detriment in your opinion?  Player development?  Something else?

Kids want to be part of a winning program and Penn being in the NIC guarantees that.  

If it’s a lack of competition preparing them for the postseason that you are insinuating, then how has New Pal managed to dominate despite being in a conference that limits their level of competition week in and week out?

Just not buying it.

This NP program, pound for pound, is in the midst of one of the most dominating runs in Indiana High School football history.  Penn has experienced that level of domination at the local level, but not quite statewide over an extended period of years.

The two are not comparable in my view

 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, DT said:

This NP program, pound for pound, is in the midst of one of the most dominating runs in Indiana High School football history.  Penn has experienced that level of domination at the local level, but not quite statewide over an extended period of years.

The two are not comparable in my view

 

The limitations placed upon them due to their conference affiliation is similar.

New Pal is entering year 8 of the Ralph era so it’s more than just one good crop of kids (not insinuating that’s what you are saying).

You've failed to specify how exactly Penn’s membership in the NIC is holding them back and will continue to do so...

They have beefed up their non conference schedule (just like New Pal)...

Sidebar question:  What is the reasoning that New Pal has gone 88-4 in the last 7 years and been so dominant?

Edited by Temptation

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38 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Sidebar question:  What is the reasoning that New Pal has gone 88-4 in the last 7 years and been so dominant?

Check out Coach Ralph's Twitter account and you have your answer.  They buy-in that he has from the kids in the weight room is incredible.  Watch his "Inside the Headset" series and you will find that he and his staff are on an entirely different level when it comes to Xs and Os as well as having answers for the "if they do this, we will do this."  He respectfully dissects how teams try to play against him in big time championship games, and makes it sound like the other team does not have a clue. 

Plus, the New Palestine area as a whole is completely invested in the program.  Look no further than the community members reaction to the fake news article a few weeks back. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, MarkCalaway said:

Check out Coach Ralph's Twitter account and you have your answer.  They buy-in that he has from the kids in the weight room is incredible.  Watch his "Inside the Headset" series and you will find that he and his staff are on an entirely different level when it comes to Xs and Os as well as having answers for the "if they do this, we will do this."  He respectfully dissects how teams try to play against him in big time championship games, and makes it sound like the other team does not have a clue. 

Plus, the New Palestine area as a whole is completely invested in the program.  Look no further than the community members reaction to the fake news article a few weeks back. 

A tombstone pile driver of a response...

But I want DT’s answer...

Edited by Temptation

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How much is Coach Ralph, and especially his staff, getting paid for all this off-season work?

 

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