NLCTigerFan07

Just some interesting stats following Week 7 on the below teams according to John Harrell's site: 6A Warsaw is ranked 8th in Scoring Offense (35.86 ppg) and 3rd in Scoring Defense (13.86 ppg) and 3rd in Average Margin (22.00 points) 5A Concord is ranked 2nd in Scoring Defense (11.43 ppg) and 7th in Average Margin (17.86 points) Mishawaka is ranked 4th in Scoring Defense (14.00 ppg) and 6th in Average Margin (18.57 points) 4A Northridge is ranked 8th in Scoring Defense (14.57 ppg)

Hear hear! I have NO DOUBT in my mind that if he was HEALTHY and behind center against Warsaw and Concord, the Cavemen win both of those games. That is no disrespect to his younger brother who has played well himself, but Justin is a stud and the perfect athlete to run that style of offense. Would love to see Mishawaka and Concord battle for a Sectional 10 championship this year with Justin at the helm.

Just wait until next week and they drop for some unknown reason and you can complain again. Bingo

Side note - the Warsaw Freshman team beat Jimtown last night to move to 7-0 on their season. The schedule is a little different than the Varsity team's due to some schools not having Freshman squads. Here are the teams they have defeated: Fairfield, Michigan City, Penn, Mishawaka Marian, Mishawaka, Northridge, and Jimtown. Anyone else know how their Freshman teams are doing outside of Plymouth and Goshen who apparently do not have teams this year. Does Wawasee have a freshman squad? I know they do not have a JV team this year.

Two thirds of the way through the end of the regular season, getting down to the nitty gritty with some big games on deck the last three weeks of the season. Worst week of my picks last week, going 2-2, bringing my season record to 23-7. Onto Week 7 uneducated predictions: Concord (5-1, 4-0) at Plymouth (0-6, 0-4): The Minutemen proved they should never be counted out as top dog when it comes to NLC football. All the talk about Warsaw, Mishawaka, and Northridge earlier on this season, yet it's Concord who has won or shared the most NLC titles (9) since 2000. The Pilgrims are having their worst season, maybe ever. Based on @Rudy Football Almanac site, Plymouth has gone winless twice in its history. In 1924 (their first season) they went 0-5 and in 1940 they went 0-6, and have 1 win seasons five other years. I do not see this one being much of a contest. Concord by 28 Goshen (2-4, 0-4) at Northridge (4-2, 2-2): I think this one has a chance to be a close game and at least competitive. During the Raiders 4 game winning streak to start the season, they were averaging 34 points on offense and only giving up 3 points on defense. In their two losses since, they are only averaging 6 points on offense and giving up 39 points on defense. That is quite the down turn in Middlebury. The Redhawks got down early and down fast last week and never stood a chance with the way Warsaw's offense was rolling. This is a big game for both programs IMO. Can Goshen pull it together and get momentum into possibly a 3 game winning streak to end the season? Can Northridge figure out a way to bring back their mojo from the start of the season? I'm hesitant, but I'll go with the home team. Northridge by 7 NorthWood (4-2, 3-1) at Mishawaka (4-2, 2-2): Game of the week in the conference without a doubt. Two teams kind of going in opposite directions. The Panthers have won 3 straight and looked good doing it. Meanwhile, the Cavemen have lost 2 of 3 to good opponents. The crazy thing is, both teams combined have 4 losses on the season by a combined 20 points! Each of these teams are just a few plays away from this being a 6-0 vs 6-0 matchup. I know last week the NorthWood starting QB got knocked out of the game, so if this is going to end up being a battle of QBs who started the season as backups, I am going with the home team and backup QB that has more Varsity experience at this point. Mishawaka by 12 Wawasee (1-5, 1-3) at Warsaw (5-1, 4-0): Honestly I do not have much to say about this game. Warsaw should roll easily and will as long as they do not get caught looking too far forward to the final two week's matchups against NorthWood and Concord. At least the Warriors have been able to find the endzone in recent weeks, but the Tigers defense has not given up a touchdown the last two games. The Black Plague D will want to keep that streak alive in this county rivalry game for the "W" Trophy. Warsaw by 42

Can't say I would name Michigan City as the favorite in Sectional 10. Concord and Mishawaka are very capable of winning that sectional and at the very least on an equal level with the Wolves.

Yup I agree with this. I read it earlier and was like.... NorthWood's losses are pretty darn good loses (if there is such a thing). As are Mishawaka's. Add to the fact that the NorthWood loss to Logansport was an away game that was a mid-week pickup due to Covid.

One thing I did not know until I looked into it for the post I made calling out top games in Northern Indiana this week was the fact that Coach Seiss is 0-5 againts Valpo since coming to Merrillville. Will this be the season his Pirates pull out the victory?

The Warsaw JV game against Wawasee has been cancelled (I don't think Wawasee has numbers to support a JV team this year). I believe most JV games in the NLC are on Saturday mornings, but maybe a Monday night game could be a possiblity as well. This is my own speculation. Either way, if you have a JV team and need/want a game this weekend, please reach out to Director of Athletics Matt Binkerd - mbinkerd@warsawschools.org or (574) 267-3162 or Head Football Coach Bart Curtis - bcurtis@warsawschools.org

I have no insight here, but in that scenario for both of them to have only 1 loss, that means Luers would lose to Snider. In my opinion, the head to head victory should be the tie breaker if it is only Luers and Snider tied at the top with 1 loss apiece. But if Snider beats Luers, and Carroll wins out, and you have Luers and Carroll at 8-1, and Snider at 7-1, I say it goes to Luers because they have 8 wins to Snider's 7, and they beat Carroll. Again, this is totally just my opinion, I have no idea how the conference will sort it out.

Some really big time games this week in Northern Indiana. The best of those games in my opinion: #1 - Merrillville (6-0) at Valparaiso (6-0) : Huge game for the DAC in what is a defacto conference championship game with the winner most likely getting a share at worst. Also a game that was cancelled last year thanks to COVID19. The Pirates are 0-5 against the Vikings under Coach Seiss. #2 - FW Luers (6-0) at FW Dwenger (4-2) : Battle of the Bishops in Fort Wayne. Will the Knights continue to roll and hand the Saints their 3rd consecutive loss at home? Dwenger has won 5 straight against Luers and outscored the Knights 90-6 the last 2 seasons. #3 - Homestead (4-2) at FW Carroll (5-1) : Staying in the SAC, two underrated teams in class 6A if you ask me. The Chargers have won 5 straight after losing to Luers by 7 points in the opener, while the Spartan's two losses (to Luers and Snider) are by a combined 5 points. Homestead has won 7 straight games in this series, including a 70-41 shootout last year. #4 - Churubusco (4-2) at Central Noble (6-0) : How about some love for the Northeast Corner Conference? The Eagles are ranked in both polls currently, and the Cougars have started 6-0 for the first time since 2003. 1A 'Busco's losses are to 4A Columbia City and to 2A state ranked Eastside. Get the buggies ready in Albion! #5 - NorthWood (4-2) at Mishawaka (4-2) : A tale of two NLC teams going in different directions. The Panthers have won 3 straight games, and their losses were by a combined 4 points. Meanwhile the Cavemen have lost 2 of 3. Will NorthWood continue to streak? Or will Mishawaka right the ship?

Per Channel 46 Chuck Freeby's Twitter account - New Prairie will host Indianapolis Tech on Friday night at 7:30pm Eastern

Teams ranked/receiving votes in polls after Week 6: 6A: Warsaw (RV - 11th AP / RV - 11th Coaches) 5A: Concord (Ranked - 9th AP / Ranked - 8th Coaches) Mishawaka (RV - 12th AP / RV - 12th Coaches) 4A: NorthWood (RV- 12th AP / RV - 13th Coaches)

Some initial reactions to the Week 6 games: Heck of a win for Concord. Mishawaka has a solid defense, but they had no issues carving up the Cavemen through the air. Forcing turnovers is also huge when playing against "Bart Ball", and that allowed the Minutemen to get out to a big lead early and hang on late. I have a feeling if that Elkhart game would have been played later on in the season, we would have seen a different outcome. Concord should have no issues with Plymouth this week, and at this point Northridge does not seem to be much of a threat for them either before hosting Warsaw in the regular season finale. Speaking of looking impressive through air, the Panthers put it to the Raiders in Middlebury, accumulating 5 passing touchdowns on the evening. They are right in the thick of things in the NLC race, but will need Concord to lose a game to at least clinch a tie of the conference title, along with winning their remaining games. They get "lucky" in the sense that they play Mishawaka before playing Warsaw in week 8. That gives them plenty of practice time to prepare for "Bart Ball". Will be interesting to see the extent of the injury for starting QB Kaden Lone though. Backup Owen Roeder performed well in relief though. Question - we don't have many NorthWood posters here, but does anyone know if Owen Roeder is related to former Panther QB Charlie Roeder? Warsaw did it's best to not look ahead past Goshen and was a well oiled machine Friday on both sides of the ball. They will have to do that again this week against Wawasee for the "W" Trophy Game. I do not believe the Warriors will cause them any issues, but they cannot get caught looking forward to the NorthWood and Concord games. Congrats to Wawasee for pulling out the vicotry over Plymouth. Heck of a Homecoming game in Syracuse, even if both teams playing are pretty bad this season. I wonder when the Rockies have ever finished a season without a win?

Agreed here. Sectional 26 should really be a heck of a battle between all the schools. I couldn't see SB Washington or Lakeland winning it at this point, but all 6 of the other teams have a legitimate shot currently.

Lol at all the people crying about the Sagarin ratings. First world problems right here folks 😄

For what it's worth, the Sagarin ratings just do not have an accurate read on the SAC in regards to the rest of the state. I would point out though, amongst each other, it is a great indicator of who the better teams are in their conference, which Luers is the top ranked SAC team. It works in that sense 😄

Fully into the second half of the season, we are flying by as usual. Should be a fantastic fall Friday night for football. I went 4-0 last week with my picks and sit at 21-5 overall. Away we go... Mishawaka (4-1, 2-1) at Concord (4-1, 3-0): Huge game in Dunlap tonight. Should be a great one and without a doubt the game of the week in the conference. The Cavemen got back on track last week with a win over Plymouth, while the Minutemen had to survive a late charge by Goshen. I expect this to be a solid defensive game. Key to the game will be Mishawaka not turning the ball over, and whether or not the Minutemen can score enough points. I think the Cavemen pull it out in a close one. Mishawaka by 6 NorthWood (3-2, 2-1) at Northridge (4-1, 2-1): Chuck Freeby and squad will be onhand for their Channel 46 Game of the Week. Should be a great game in and of it's own as both teams hopes of winning at least a share of the NLC crown will be decided here. The Raiders still have some injuries that will impact them, while the Panthers are coming off a tuneup against Wawasee. Last year saw a real barnburner with a 7-0 victory by Northridge, and I expect a similar type game this year. Both teams have really good defenses, so it will come down to if the Raiders can put some points on the board. Maybe it's my recency bias, but I like the Panthers. NorthWood by 2 Warsaw (4-1, 3-0) at Goshen (2-3, 0-3): Here is a crazy stat: the RedHawks have not beaten Warsaw since the 2007 season. I couldn't believe that. Unfortunately for Goshen, I do not see that ending tonight. However, they have improved this season and played NorthWood and Concord tough the last two weeks. If they catch the Tigers looking ahead toward the end of the season, they could make things interesting. Although, if there is a coach in the state that can keep his team focused on the current week only, it's Coach Curtis. Warsaw by 21 Plymouth (0-5, 0-3) at Wawasee (0-5, 0-3): The Toilet Bowl in Syracuse tonight for the Warrior's homecoming. Do not have much to say here for this game. I am going with the Pilgrims because I have more faith that they can score points this year. Plus, based on the weekly snips from Coach Reutebuch, I am not sure how many players Wawasee will have available. Plymouth by 14

I know you take no offense to what I said, but I stand by it. Leo and East Noble are in a class of their own in that sectional from my perspective. It would take a true miracle for 1 of those 2 teams to not win Sectional 19.

Teams ranked/receiving votes in polls after Week 5: 6A: Warsaw (RV - 11th AP / RV - 14th Coaches) 5A: Mishawaka (Ranked - 5th AP / Ranked - 6th Coaches) Concord (RV - 12th AP / RV - 13th Coaches) 4A: Northridge (RV- 11th AP / RV - 14th Coaches)

I would agree with most of what @Prospect provided. 6A - Warsaw proved last year they could beat and compete with Carroll and Homestead. I would say Carroll is more improved this year than last, and Homestead has a heck of a squad. It helps being in a 3-team sectional this year with the weird rules that were in place thanks to Covid as Snider dropped to 5A, so if all Warsaw has to do is win 1 game (at home) for a sectional championship? That helps. However, facing a Regional opponent of whoever wins Sectional 4 (Westfield, HSE, Fishers, or Noblesville)... I would be surprised to see the Tigers get any further than that. 5A - If Mishawaka had their senior QB 100% healthy, I think they could/would have the best chance in Sectional 10, but Concord and Michigan City would be tough opponents. Then the winner of that sectional would likely face Valparaiso in the Regional, and then likely either Dwenger, Snider, Zionsville, or Harrison (WL) in the Semi-State... tough sledding no matter what team win Sectional 10. 4A - Honestly no NLC team has a shot IMO, especially with Northridge's injuries that have been sustained and from what I saw this past Friday night against Warsaw. Sectional 19 might be the best sectional in class 4A and has an arguement across the state really. Leo and East Noble are without a doubt head and shoulders above the rest, while Columbia City and Angola are no slouches. My honest opinion? Mishawaka has the best opportunity to at least win a Sectional Championship this year, but it will be tough to come by. Beating Valpo in the Regional? I doubt it. As well, like I mentioned, if Warsaw only has to win a single game to be a Sectional Champion, that keeps them in the conversation. But I would not see them competing with any team from Sectional 4 with the exception of Noblesville... but the Millers are not winning that thing.

Agreed @Crusty! I was more impressed with the Cavemen on defense than I was the Raiders who get a lot more chatter on this forum for their defense. By the end of the season, we might see that Mishawaka and Concord were actually the two best defenses in the conference. Should be a great game. Is Justin Fisher out for the rest of the season? His younger brother looks pretty comfortable taking the reigns, but I feel for Justin. He's a stud and I believe Mishawaka would have gone undefeated with him at QB and been able to make a potential tournament run with him at the helm.

Reactions from Week 5: I know the Raiders were depleted at some key positions last week, but even at full strength I think the Tigers would have won that game, albeit much closer. Hopefully Northridge will heal up and be healthy soon, not only to play a role in the conference race, but to also compete in the LOADED 4A Sectional 19. On the Warsaw side of things, I was happy to see our defense make continued improvements over the last 3 weeks. That will be the key for them to close out the season. Goshen and NorthWood will be no slouches, but the Tigers should be favored the next 3 weeks before a regular season finale (and possible conference championship game) against Concord in Dunlap. I had a feeling the RedHawks would at least stay competitive against Concord at Foreman Field. They definitely could pull an upset this week against Warsaw or the following week against Northridge and should defeat both Plymouth and Wawasee to end the season to have their best record since the 2016 season. The Northridge defense gets a lot of talk here, but my oh my, how about the Minutemen defense? The Koltookian brothers ended the game unofficially with 7.5 sacks combined on the night. Concord sits at the top of the NLC with Warsaw, but has arguably the toughest remaining schedule. The good thing? Their 3 toughest opponents (Mishawaka, Northridge, Warsaw) all have to come to Jake Field. No real surprise with the other two games. I am beating a dead horse at this point, but Plymouth and Wawasee are both really bad and Mishawaka and NorthWood (respectively) had no issues with either of them. If either team wants to possibly win or share the conference title, both will have to go on the road this week for big "prove it" games. Will be interesting to see how both teams perform. Meanwhile, the Rockies and Warriors will face off in Syracuse for the Pillow Fight of the Year game. Hey, at least one of them will pick up a win! My early prediction is that Plymouth will win, solely based on the fact that I believe they'll have the best player on the field in Devante Garcia. I will withhold my predictions until later in the week.

No it will have an effect on SAC and SIAC teams each and every week. This is due to the fact that the formula used by Sagarin has no way to reference/compare those teams performances against any other teams in the state. Again, this has been discussed many times over the years and there are probably some better answers/responses that explain it better. No need to get your feathers all ruffled. "Idiotic criteria"... it's just one man's formula rankings that has a flaw in it if a group of teams only play amongst each other. Everyone knows Luers is a hell of a team this year. Where they rank among Sagarin's poll means nothing.

It's been well discussed before, the SAC and SIAC both suffer in Sagarin Ratings because they play "closed" schedules of 9 game only conference teams. It messes with the Sagarin Ratings because of this. Things will change drastically after the first week of the tournament when they play teams outside of conference play.