NLCTigerFan07

Truly been out of the loop over the last two weeks unfortunately. Can't do my normal write ups like I enjoy - but just a quick breakdown for tonight: NorthWood at Mishawaka: The psuedo NLC Conference Championship game as I do not see either team losing the final two weeks of the season. The winner here will all but clinch AT LEAST a share of the conference crown. Should be an absolute gem of a game in the Princess City tonight. Both teams are without a doubt the most athletic squads in the conference. If Mishawaka runs "Bart Ball" like they're capable of, I think they can pull out the win. The Panthers are dangerous on offense though, and have a stout defense that doesn't get nearly the praise it should. I'll go with the home team in a close one... MISHAWAKA BY 2 Concord at Northridge: Should be a competitive ball game. Both teams riding 2-game winning streaks in the middle of the season after each played Wawasee and Goshen the last 2 weeks. The Minutemen finally scored more than 16 points last week and have a stout defense. I just think the Raiders are a little bit better, but think this is a barn burner. Another home victory... NORTHRIDGE BY 7 Plymouth at Goshen: This is the only chance either team has at adding a victory the rest of this season. It will be interesting to see what the Redhawks do on offense following the loss of Bechtel at QB. This could be an extremely ugly game of football. Plymouth is just so putrid on the offensive side of the ball and are also on a 17 game losing streak. If they don't win tonight, that streak will extend into next season... GOSHEN BY 6 Warsaw at Wawasee: The "W" Game has been dominated by the Tigers the last decade, winning 7 in a row and 8 of the last 9 matchups in this series. The Warriors have a gauntlent to end the season taking on Warsaw, NorthWood and Mishawaka. YIKES! I think there are two options when it comes to this game. Either A) the Tigers come out flat after back-to-back deflating losses and struggle against a lesser opponent or B) the Tigers come out and take out all their frustration on the Warriors. Either way, I still see the Tigers taking home the "W" Trophy in Syracuse tonight... WARSAW BY 28

If Mishawaka does not turn the ball over and can put together long drives (aka run Bart Ball to perfection), I think they have a good chance on winning this game. Being at home definitely helps. But man-o-man do the Panthers have some athletes! At the flip of a switch, things can go downhill in a hurry for their opponents, which is exactly what happened in the Warsaw vs NorthWood game.

Sorry for being MIA for over a week! Travelled for work last week and was busy on the days I was home and just could not dedicate myself here like I want to. Very excited for the NorthWood vs Mishawaka game this week! Both teams made my Tigers look like kitties each of the last two Friday nights. Both teams simply have more athletes than Warsaw this year. Super impressed with both squads and will be cheering for them in their respective class tournaments. Sad to hear about Goshen's QB injury. He's a great kid and one of the main reasons I had decently high hopes for them this year. Looks like I'll miss out on that preseason prediction. All in all, I would say this week will likely be the "best" week of NLC play. The two at the top will battle, while the Concord/Northridge and Plymouth/Goshen games could be good games competition wise. I have a strong feeling the Tigers will take out their frustrations on Wawasee in Syracuse for the "W" trophy.

Using @hhpatriot04 predictor tool NorthWood (79.73) is a 2-point favorite (1.45-point home-field advantage) vs. Warsaw (79.05) and has about a 54.89% chance of winning. Concord (58.14) is a 21-point favorite (1.45-point home-field advantage) vs. Wawasee (35.61) and has about a 86.999% chance of winning. Northridge (61.3) is a 14-point favorite (1.45-point home-field advantage) vs. Goshen (45.88) and has about a 77.999% chance of winning. Mishawaka (71.25) is a 51-point favorite (1.45-point home-field advantage) vs. Plymouth (21.6) and has about a 99.1% chance of winning.

I was thinking of the same thing. I realize Whiteland is #1 ... but Perry Meridian is not good and this should not be a competitive game whatsoever tonight.

Once again 4-0 on my picks last week... but I'm sure most had the same predictions. Brings me up to 21-3 for my record on the year. NLC Game of the Year #1 will be happening in Nappanee tonight as undefeated NorthWood welcomes undefeated Warsaw. At the very least, a partial championship will be decided over these next 3 weeks as NorthWood, Warsaw, and Mishawaka all play each other round robin style. Let's get to the predictions. Concord (1-3, 0-2 NLC) at Wawasee (1-3, 1-1 NLC): The Warriors won the Toilet Bowl last week and put up a good offensive showing against a hapless Pilgrams squad. Meanwhile, the Concord defense did everything they could to help keep them in the game against Warsaw. That flying high feeling for Wawasee ends after one week. I see the Minutemen defense shutting down the Warriors, while their offense (which is only averaging 7 points a game!) does enough to win a tight one... CONCORD BY 14 Northridge (1-3, 0-2 NLC) at Goshen (1-3, 1-1 NLC): If only these two squads were having great seasons, man-o-man would the story lines be extra juicy! Both teams got molly-whopped last week, but I think this has a chance to be a really good game tonight. Not only is Coach Wogomon hosting his former team, but Coach Eppley was an assistant coach and former player for Wogomon during their days at Wawasee. The Raider offense is hot and cold, while the Redhawks offense is more just lukewarm. I'll go with the team who I believe has the better overall defense (interesting side note, Goshen started this season 4 of 5 games at home. They'll end the season with 3 of 4 on the road)... NORTHRIDGE BY 7 Plymouth (0-4, 0-2 NLC) at 5A #2 Mishawaka (4-0, 2-0 NLC): I honestly just don't feel like spending much time on this won. The Cavemen get one more week to be healthy and shore things up on both sides of the ball. This will be a running clock in the second half... MISHAWAKA BY 49 6A #11 Warsaw (4-0, 2-0 NLC) at 4A #5 NorthWood (4-0, 2-0 NLC): The Battle of the Big Cats in Nappanee tonight should be a good one! I wish I was able to make it to the game tonight, but I'll do my best to listen in via radio (unless anyone knows of a location for streaming?). Much like last week for the Tigers, they are heading to a place they have not won in some time. The last victory for them at Andrews Field was 10 years ago in 2012. They have lost 4 straight in Nappanee, including the last 2 trips that were EACH 1 point losses. As good as the Panther offense has been to start the season, it feels like their defense is not getting the credit it deserves either. Granted - I don't think any of the teams they have faced so far would be confused with offensive juggernauts, but they are only giving up 10 points be game. In previous seasons, I would likely have picked against my Tigers here, mostly because of their pass defense. Concord and Carroll last season, Homestead the year before that, whenever Warsaw faced a team with a potent passing offense, it usually spelled quite a bit of trouble for them. However, I am going to drink the orange Kool-Aid tonight! GO TIGERS!!! ... WARSAW BY 2

I was just about to ask if there was any reason why the Irish had tomorrow night off but figured you would give the answer somewhere in this forum and I was right! Definitely a shame they were not able to find an opponent this week. Assuming you live in the Indianapolis area, plenty of other good games to get to tomorrow night. Brownsburg at Fishers and Hamilton Southeastern at Westfield should be two good games. Warren Central and Ben Davis typically worthwhile, and if you live on the south side of Indy, the trip down for Martinsville at Franklin or Mooresville at Decatur Central should be good ones too.

Another big game I would add that I realize isn't the "flashiest" of games to promote, but 4-0 Rochester at 4-0 Tippecanoe Valley. Both teams put up a lot of points (Rochester averages 51 ppg while Valley is averaging 40 ppg). Tippecanoe Valley has won 13 straight regular season games and is the defending TRC champion. These two rivals did not meet last season due Rochester having to cancel two games with a COVID outbreak.

Yes - and I believe Plymouth was one of those teams that you're talking about that did not have a freshmen team once or a twice over the previous handful of years.

I don't mean this in a condescending way... but I just gave you 3 levels of football scores between Warsaw and Plymouth lol That being said - I feel like over the past few years, there have been some teams in the NLC that did not have full Freshman teams, because Warsaw's freshmen team had to play a few random teams (I think they played Mishawaka Marian one week and maybe FW Snider another week).

I do not think I would say dominated. Plymouth did run off a streak from 2003 to 2019 in which they went 14-3 against the Tigers. However, 5 of those victories were by 7 points or less and extremely competitive games. If the ball bounces one way or the other in those games, the series easily could have been 9-8 during that time period. Since the 1994 season (as far back as John Harrell's site goes), the series is 17-12 in favor of the Rockies. 10 of the 29 games have been decided by 7 points or fewer. I cannot remember where I heard specifically, but I think around this time something changed within the greater Plymouth school corporation. I can't remember what it was, but I feel like I remember Coach Barron complaining about something in an interview once. But it was impacting the numbers and the lower levels, like the middle school level. Maybe they had to get bussed somewhere else for practices or something I dunno but it impacted turnout and numbers and we're now seeing the result of that decision as those kids make their way into the high school program.

Can only speak to what they did against the Tigers. Warsaw JV team beat them pretty bad 44-0, while the Warsaw Freshmen team won 30-20. So across 3 levels, Warsaw defeated Plymouth by a combined score of 144-20.

Great write up @00NWP ! I will make my picks later on this week, but one thing I wanted to call out was that 19-0 final score was a bit deceiving. Not taking anything away from Concord, but Warsaw's kicker had an unusual off night on Friday and missed 1 XP and 3 very makeable FGs. With the missed XP, it caused Warsaw to go for 2 on their following TD, which they did not convert. So if the kicker is able to make the first one, then make the second one, and hit the 3 FGs, it easily could and should have been a 30-0 victory for Warsaw. Again - not taking anything away from the Minutemen here. Their defense bent much of the night, but did not break once the Tigers got onto their side of the field. They deserve much credit, but I do feel the final score is not indicative of how the game was played.

Agreed here. These next few weeks will be telling, especially for the Warsaw defense. Their starting until has only given up 1 touchdown through 4 games. They will have their hands full this week in Nappanee against NorthWood

Not completely accurate here. Warsaw has not beaten Concord AT Concord since 2009. The Tigers have had many wins over the Minutemen at home since that time however.

A decent start to the conference slate last week as we are already a third of the way through the regular season. All the "favorites" won, but some of that margins of victory were surprising. I went 4-0 last week on my picks, bringing my season total to 17-3. A few interesting games this week that I think will show us who are contenders, and who are pretenders. The top three favorites (Mishawaka, NorthWood and Warsaw) all hit the road. Here goes my uneducated guesses for Week 4 of the season (weekly rankings based on AP poll): #2 5A Mishawaka (3-0) at Goshen (1-2): The Cavemen survived and epic battle in double OT last week against Northridge, while the Redhawks got Coach Wogomon his first victory leading his alma mater. I was a little surprised with the Raiders hanging tough against Mishawaka. Will that help them focus on not overlooking Goshen? I think the Redhawks keep it close for a few quarters, but they are not quite on the same level as the Cavemen... MISHAWAKA BY 16 #6 4A NorthWood (3-0) at Northridge (1-2): The Panthers turned it on offensively last week and left Concord behind in an impressive victory, while the Raiders earned a "morale" victory in their double OT loss to Mishawaka. Last year's regular season matchup saw NorthWood blow out Northridge 42-8 behind a strong game from Owen Roeder in relief. This year, he's the starter and coming off a game in which he threw for almost 400 yards and 4 TDs. A complete shift in offensive styles for the Raiders to prepare for this week. I think they come out flat at home and the Panthers continue to roll... NORTHWOOD BY 14 #10 6A Warsaw (3-0) at Concord (1-2): The Tigers completely dismantled the hapless Pilgrams last week, while Concord was spanked by NorthWood. Warsaw's offense seems to be doing just fine without their season starting QB, but even more impressive is the Tiger defense out the gate. Against Michigan City, the 3rd string D allowed a TD in the final minutes. In the Chesterton game, they allowed a single TD while also scoring a defensive TD. And last week shut out Plymouth while scoring 2 TDs themselves. The Minutemen will be a stiffer challenge than the Pilgrams, but the Tigers should have revenge on their mind after losing last year's defacto NLC championship game in Dunlap... WARSAW BY 17 Wawasee (0-3) at Plymouth (0-3): The NLC Toilet Bowl for the third straight year as neither team has a conference victory outside of this game with the exception of Wawasee's win over Goshen in the 2020 season. Someone gets a tally in the win column tonight, and possibly the only win either of these teams will have this year. I have no confidence in making the Warriors my pick tonight, however, at least they have shown they can score points on offense. The Pilgrams have been outscored 170-7 so far this season... WAWASEE BY 6

Exactly - it's not a good or bad thing, but Whiteland is definitely an Indianapolis area school. @FastpacedO - do you consider Westfield an Indy area school? It's about 21 miles due south from Westfield to Monument Circle in downtown Indianapolis. For Whiteland? It's less than 20 miles.

It's always interesting to me to see the similarities and differences between the two polls. For example in 6A, Lawrence Central got at least one vote worth 3 points in the Coaches Poll (which only includes 10 voters/coaches), while in the AP poll, they received zero votes from 16 voters. Just seems interesting that at least one coach thinks highly of the Bears. Also a shoutout to a few CIC teams that have been super impressive even though they have not yet cracked their classes' top ten ranking. Oak Hill (3A - 3-0) was straight up dominate in their victory over perennial 2A power Eastbrook, and Madison-Grant (2A - 3-0) has not had a winning season since 2011. Well on their way to accomplishing that with their start to the season, including last week's win over 4A Mississinewa.

This is just me being curious - you have Jimtown by 28+... would you not consider that BIG? lol

Sounds like they should see a doctor about that

It was only after 2 weeks of play. I didn't claim those teams had the best defenses in the state (and even mentioned I did not anticipate it ending up that way when it is all said and done). It was just an interesting coincidence that those 3 teams are all in the same sectional and at the time had the top 3 scoring defenses in the state. My post was merely meant to congratulate those teams' Ds strong starts. Doesn't matter who the opponent is in my opinion, holding any team to less than 7 points is always impressive.

NLC teams in the rankings Week 4 6A Warsaw - RV-12th (Coaches) / 10th (AP) 5A Mishawaka - 2nd (Coaches - with 1 first place vote!) / 2nd (AP - with 2 first place votes!) 4A NorthWood - 6th (Coaches) / 6th (AP) Northridge - RV-16th (AP only)

Bart Curtis - current Head Coach at Warsaw since 2018, who previously coached at Mishawaka, New Prairie, and Maconaquah. The Cavemen still run the same offense that he brought with him to Mishawaka in 2008. It is affectionately known in this part of the state as "Bart Ball", especially since there are not many large schools (5A and 6A) that run this style of offense.

I posted this in the NLC thread, but wanted to give it more visibility as it's own topic for others to appreciate on this forum. I know it's only through 3 weeks of the season and Warsaw's 70 point performance against a woeful Plymouth has this statistic skewed a bit. HOWEVER, I find it awesome that both Warsaw and Mishawaka are leading class 6A and 5A, respectively, in scoring offense running that Triple - Midline - Toss / "Bart Ball" style of offense. Just goes to show you don't have to be a high flying offense to score a lot of points on that side of the ball!

I know it's only through 3 weeks of the season and Warsaw's 70 point performance against a woeful Plymouth has this statistic skewed a bit. HOWEVER, I find it awesome that both Warsaw and Mishawaka are leading class 6A and 5A, respectively, in scoring offense running that Triple - Midline - Toss / "Bart Ball" style of offense. Just goes to show you don't have to be a high flying offense to score a lot of points.