foxbat

The way it is right now, you get bumped up after two-in-a-row and then only need 2 points, a pair of sectionals per season or a regional or higher in any one of the two seasons, and you stay up. There are a couple of exceptions here where, due to the cycle alignments, it's possible for a team to see LOS three years in a row before getting bumped. Of course, there's also a chance to get bumped when only seeing LOS once in a cycle too. Case in point, LCC won state in 2019, lost in semi-state in 2020, and went to 2A via SF. The problem with permanent is exemplified in a program like Pioneer. Pioneer went to LOS three seasons in a row: red ring in 2016 and back-to-back blues in 2017 and 2018 including a dominating 60-0 2018 state performance. They got bumped to 2A for the 2019 season. Under the permanent proposal, they'd still be there. They returned to 1A though these season where they went 2-8 ... realize though that they went 9-3 in 2A in 2021.

Apparently someone got video of @Coach Nowlin entering LOS Friday:

Six to bump up ... 2 to stay. There are going to be a couple of those "cusp" programs that will likely be moving up even with Cathedral staying up in 6A. Valpo is one of them and likely WL-Harrison. Harrison stayed down this go-round because of Cathedral's SF bump, but I believe that enrollment estimates are possibly pointing to Harrison possibly overtaking Jeff as the largest school in the Lafayette area which will put them in 6A next go-round. Thought I saw conjecture in another thread about Whiteland likely moving toward 6A enrollment too.

Mishawaka moved up ... about a decade or so ago? Back in the day, a long ways back, Mishawaka Marian petitioned the IHSAA to move up a couple of classes, from 1A to 3A, but was only granted a one class move up at the time. They eventually ended up in 3A. Scecina also won a couple state titles in 2A back in the early 1990s and then enrollment numbers dropped and they would have moved down to 1A; but they opted to stay in 2A for a while. Eventually moved back down to 1A on enrollment ... ended up being SF'd in the 2013 season and having enrollment go up again enough to keep them in 2A via enrollment.

Linton picked up a blue ring versus Pioneer in 2016, after getting a red ring vs. LCC in 2015, before stepping on the SF elevator. Secina picked up a pair of red rings in back-to-back seasons, 2011 and 2012, to LCC and then both moved to 2A in 2013. In both Scecina's and Linton's cases, while SF took them up, eventually enrollment kept them up in 2A.

Relegation and promotion has been proposed before. It differs a bit in professional environments vs. high school sports. The bigger issue is likely the relegation component has very few, if any teams that want to be singled out and told to move down below the "norm" level ... norm currently being classified as enrollment number classification. I agree that it would be akin to a reverse Success Factor, but I think it's a hard selling point. Even coaches who recognize that their teams are CURRENTLY less than competitive in their class are more likely to try to "tough it out" as opposed to get a concession and move downward. In some cases, it's an issue of pride, in others it's a question of motivation for the team, in other cases it's a questions of "that's what the system is," etc. Success factor reworking tends to be in 2-year cycles, although the original IFCA proposal was for a 4-year cycle. The argument for the 4-year cycle, which I tend to agree with, is that the current two-year cycle tends to focus more on current team success as opposed to program success, which, at least in theory, SF was supposed to address. With a 2-year cycle, it's possible that a good class gets a program bumped up into an upper class and future classes are left covering that bill. While 4-year can certainly see a program get caught in the mix with a couple of good classes optimally spaced, it's more likely to impact programs that are showing growth as opposed to addressing the symptom of a good class.

While one-pointers don't matter for move-up, some of those one-pointers though could be important for STAYING up. Cathedral picked up a regional this year and thus picked up 2 points, so they remain in 6A through the next re-class regardless of what they do next season. LCC and Evansville Memorial both picked up a sectional in 2A and 4A, respectively, and need a section each next season to remain up from their enrollment class. Dwenger needs a regional next season to stay up in 5A.

Need to add instant replay just so they can bring @Bobrefout of retirement to be Mike Pereira at the Indy State Championship games. That'd be worth the ticket price alone.

I would contend that, while there may be a couple of folks that might be chapped, the vast majority basically take the mindset that Chatard has for most of their seasons, "Tell us where to play and that's what we'll do, play." This is also the same that most teams that have been SF'd do. Chatard takes each season as it comes and realizes that, when you take each season as the hand that you've been dealt and push to make it the best, regardless of conditions, eventually you get to where you can be and want to be. Pioneer did it and didn't complain when the Kiser era was over and they were still taking their lumps in 2A. Scecina did it when they were the poster team for SF as the only team to be SF'd to a higher level without earning a blue ring for the effort. Cathedral has yo-yo'd and got beat up in 6A to only work their way through and become a more permanent fixture above their enrollment level. I conjecture that schools like Chatard realize that, yes, they can take advantage of a seasonal or yearly situation, but that organic tends to be more long-lived. Chatard will eventually end up more permanently outside of 3A, but like weightlifting, you are better off building the mass organically over time rather than rushing it for short-term satisfaction. Chatard will likely still be in the mix for 4A in a decade too. Again, the mantra of the SF'd tends to be fairly pragmatic: "Just tell us where to play."

I needed that game to be 20 seconds shorter.

Thanks! But still gotta get Whiteland to do their job. @LC_Bears_04still has a shot with a Valpo win as I still need a perfect run to pass him. If Whiteland loses, then I don't get the extra 5 points and I need those to pass him.

I've been in Mass and it just let out. Looks like the prayers of the faithful we're answered. Pun intended.

That Chatard drive looked textbook.

Let me guess ... Lawrenceburg?

Xfinity has it on Channel 29 today. Edit: It was on 591 yesterday, but that's a roaming channel and isn't there today.

Did @CoachDurhampromise to give you 300 points if you can get me to go for Lawrenceburg?

Aren't we technically classified "fossil?"

@LC_Bears_04left me no choice when we had the same selections. I had to take a gamble.

Not once you use a third-party that has fine print in the contract. Edit: At least TM didn't do that competitive pricing thing and price five year old kids right out of LOS.

OK, when @Rodneyhas to ask if you're OK ...

I need those five as I'm now 3 down from @LC_Bears_04 with that Mater Dei win and he and I have all the same games picked for everything else. Like you said, if Chatard wins, I likely pull ahead ... barring a revenge game from AC ... and if they lose, I'm out. @Ballhawkneeds to have mailed them in, picked Mater Dei, and win out and we'd be tied for first. I can think of worse things that could happen and I could certainly live with sharing the Caddy with @Ballhawk. It'd also make for some continued drama in the CFWM too as @CoachDurhamcould still claim to be the only three-time OUTRIGHT winner of the Caddy if I tied for first this time out.

This is how I approached looking at game predictions for this game. I saw Jeff against Harrison and, while Jeff is a good team with plenty of potential, the fact that Carroll struggled to put Jeff away, signaled that Carroll was going to have their work cut out for them to stay competitive in the game. Center Grove was just way too dominant in so many facets of the game and made great adjustments to shut it off every time Carroll tried something different or something to get back into the game. At the same time, they did not give Carroll anything to work with. If I'm not mistaken, it wasn't until the fourth quarter before CG even had a penalty and that one was declined so that Carroll could get the ball. Don't get me wrong, Carroll was a good team, but CG was not only firing on all cylinders, but quite adaptive in making sure that Carroll couldn't get anywhere close to cruising speed.

The only team that Lawrenceburg saw close to that level of passing was East Central at just a tad over 80% completion. They lost that game 38-3. Next closest teams were the likes of Connersville, Monrovia, and Southridge around 50%.

God will get you for that.