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Lysander

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Posts posted by Lysander

    Temp’s Eliminator Poll (Week 12)

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

    Amen...at least throw those games in for the strength of schedule piece of the calculations.

    It’s an old complaint on behalf of schools that historically might have played out of state games but I feel (perhaps inaccurately) that more teams than ever are playing out of state.  If a team is playing 2 games out of state during the regular season that means that over 20% of the comparative data is wholly missing.

    There’s simply no way you can consider that an analysis lacking 20% of the games played (Sags) to be as predictive as a system that does incorporate those games (CalPreps) so long as the system including all games isn’t simply poorly constructed intrinsically.

    Admittedly, Sagarin, even with its faults is likely a heckuva better at evaluating than me holding my finger to the wind but it’s still…..flawed.

     

    Temp’s Eliminator Poll (Week 12)

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted · Edited by Lysander

    Gotta be honest, as someone who pays a lot of attention to Sags and CalPreps, I’m totally down with the transitive value being utilized to predict outcomes.

    You just need a lot of games (more inputs) played before it begins to become predictive…not a few or single game.

    In the end, I’ll trust the transitive value used en gros over most alternative.

    With that, I’m still very uncomfortable with Sags this year…even at this late stage of the season.  Maybe just confirmation bias on my part but I really think the lack of incorporating out of state games in Sagarin seems to be more problematic than most any prior year I can recall.

    • Like 1

    CYO Football Championship Weekend

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted · Edited by Lysander

    Shout out to @Cyoguru and the St Michael Crusaders for their 14-6 Cadet AAA victory over the St. Pius Panthers yesterday in a hard fought win.  Wistfully (to me), the PA system yesterday echoed names that have been heard on Indianapolis Catholic HS football fields both currently and for some decades.  It’s a bit of a time warp to attend these great CYO games. 

    Two questions for the Guru, though.

    First, just how many times have the Crusaders played in and or won the Cadet Championship in the last 20 years? Seems they are always playing this time of year.

    Second, and most importantly, is this most recent Championship the swan song for the Guru?

    Two State Championships in the Success Factor Era

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

    I encourage everyone to go and take a look at a little 1A public school team in Pittsburgh (Aliquippa) that voluntarily plays at the 3A level. They have won multiple 3A titles and, after being success factored up to 4A, won another state title. They were on the verge of being success factored up again to 5A (6A is the largest PA classification). They were prepared to sue the state to keep them at 4A. Again, this is a 1A public school. They also have 3 former players who are in the NFL HOF. This is a town and school that lives and breathes football. It permeates the culture. Nearly every kid dreams of playing for the HS team from the time they can understand what it means. This is a school of about 120 kids (boys and girls combined) playing and winning at 4A. 

    Success factor works until it doesn’t. There will always be people with a good case for why any system is “unfair” (hint: nothing is perfect). The Aliquippa story is why I will continuously shake my head and laugh when people want to use success factor to punish teams while not looking inward at their programs to see what is broken. Again, this is a public school. Single A. Punches well above its weight. Why? Take some time and read up on them. What you will find is that it is 100% because of the kids drive and desire to be champions even against the toughest of odds. 

    Even if you think I am a buffoon for my reasoning (you won’t be the first and my feeling won’t be hurt), read up on this school and team, it’s a great story. 

    Ditka’s school (among others) if I recall correctly.

    • Like 2

    Two State Championships in the Success Factor Era

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MHSTigerFan said:

    I don’t think they should do it at all, really.  Just let teams compete and let the chips fall where they may.

    But, if they’re going to do it, they need to figure out a way around the problem of a team having an uncharacteristic run of success based on an abnormally good class or two.  That kind of shafts the normal classes that come up behind them.

    I don’t necessarily disagree but, for good or ill, something was inevitable.  I favor this vs the alternative automatic one class bump for P/Ps (which I actually originally favored).  I’d also add it gives teams a chance to win in the class above….which so far only you guys have done in 3A to 4A. 

    4A Regional Championship: East Central at Evansville Memorial

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Boiler Boog said:

    Outside of Lawrenceburg, Dearborn county is pretty rural and hasn't really changed a lot since I graduated back in 2000. The school enrollment is still about the same too. It's crazy how big EC's school district is in order for them to be 4A. It takes almost 45 minutes to drive from certain points of the school district.

    My Old Man owned several school bus routes in Franklin County. That’s how he, quite literally, smuggled me into the big elementary school in Brookville.  His declaration was that there was no damn way he would allow me to “sit my little @ss” on the wooden outhouse in our hometown/village/refugee camp of Metamora elementary school.  That’s why I only stop at Buc-ees when traveling south to this very day.

    That said, there were certain homes on those Franklin County gravel roads you stayed WELL outside of shotgun range when picking up kids.

    9 minutes ago, Slobberknocker said:

    Center Grove has a few open dates next year. East Central should give them a call.

    Another call may be happening as well based on what I’m hearing….

    4A Regional Championship: East Central at Evansville Memorial

    in The Indiana High School Football Forum

    Posted

    Firstly, despite Memorial causing me to lose extremities in a freezing 2008 loss and then squashing the dreams of my kid back in 2009….and just generally doing it to every Chatard team they have played the last 15 years, I’m a huge fan of Memorial.

    In part, as a massive underdog, I was rooting for Memorial against Reitz.  After watching the game I felt even more strongly about that.

    With that, Southeast Indiana is the Rodney Dangerfield of Indiana HS football - NO RESPECT.  

    Everybody NE, NW and SW p!sses and moans about not getting any respect.  

    These are generally big@ss populations (I observe as a small town kid) crying about this….50-250,000 populations feeding into the various schools.

    Just check out southeast Indiana.  20 squirrels, 10 deer and a school bus driving 3 miles between pickups on a gravel road. 

    East Central is basically a P.O. Box that gets checked once a week.

    And yet they are probably able to play Ben Davis and Center Grove within an inch of their lives this year.  Their easy win over Moeller v. Center Grove’s OT win seems to justify that.

    That said, being the sole default Indiana suburb (other than Lawrenceburg and South Dearborn) for Cincinnati doesn’t hurt.  That considered, I really don’t think that has any d@mn thing to do with it.  

    They just kick whatever @ss is put in front of them.

    Still…love you guys at Memorial….
     

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