Footballking16

I’m not sure how it isn’t irrelevant? Despite being significantly outgained Cathedral still had the ball with the lead and one play to win the game. I guess what probability would you give then for a team to: a) get a 4th and 1 stop b) go 50+ yards with no TO’s c) not only score but score a TD all with just over a little minute left to play. If I would have offered you even money prior to the 4th down play that Center Grove was going to win the game would you have seriously taken that bet?

I'm not arguing whether Center Grove dominated the stat sheet or not. That's really irrelevant from the point I'm making. Despite being outgained, Cathedral had the ball, leading, with a half yard to win the game with a little over a minute left. If that scenario occurred 100 times the likelihood of Cathedral winning occurs ~90 times. Absolutely everything had to go right for Center Grove to win that game and everything wrong for Cathedral to lose given what transpired. You're right it is all history and nothing that happened last year has an effect this year.

It's essentially a handicap. If the Colt's are +7 against the Patriots, in the gambling world the game theoretically starts with the Colt's leading 7-0. The Patriot's (-7) would need to win the game by at least 8 points for the bet to be declared a winner.

I'm saying Cathedral ran a terrible 4th and a half yard play instead of running it behind their offensive line. Or simply punt. To win that game Center Grove had to: a) Stop Cathedral on 4th and half a yard b) Go 50+ yards with no timeouts with a little over a minute left c) Not only score, but score a TD To win that game Cathedral had to: a) gain half a yard If you don't understand probability and how it relates to the likelihood of an outcome occurring at a certain juncture of time that's fine, just say you don't understand. Cathedral absolutely should have won that game. They didn't.

Cathedral with the ball leading 13-10, less than 2 minutes, 4th and half a yard, no TO's for CG. The probability of Center Grove winning at that juncture of the game was very slim. It's a game Cathedral should've won but didn't. Everything had to go right for Center Grove and everything wrong for Cathedral for the outcome to turn the way it did.

Well they're a 27 point favorite in this hypothetical scenario. Guessing Bears62 hypothetical handicapping won't have single effect on tonight's outcome. Now that is something I'm willing to bet on 😛

Because we love hypothetical gambling.

GOTW: Cathedral (-14.5) at Westfield Ben Davis at Brownsburg (pk) Carmel at Louisville Trinity (-18) Center Grove (-27) at Warren Central Lafayette Jeff (-11.5) at West Lafayette Lawrence North at Avon (-5.5) Mishawaka at Mishawaka Marian (-3.5) New Palestine at Decatur Central (-5) Noblesville at Mount Vernon (-6.5) North Central (-14.5) at Fishers Penn (-3) at Valparaiso Pike at Zionsville (-15.5) Sheridan at Western Boone (-12.5) Lawrence Central at HSE (-19) LCC at Tri-West (-8.5) Homestead (-16.5) at FW Northrop FW Snider (-12) at FW North FW Dwenger (-20.5) at Fort Wayne Wayne Evansville Central (-17) at Evansville Mater Dei Columbus East at Whiteland (pk) Jesuit Brebeuf at Bishop Chatard (-29.5) Andrean at Merrillville (-9.5)

Because your team had to go nearly 60 yards with a little over a minute left and no timeouts after previously stopping Cathedral on 4th and a half yard on play where Cathedral wins eventually if they run literally any other play (or punt). There were so many things that had to go right in Center Grove’s favor for Cathedral to lose that game.

They should’ve but they didn’t and that’s all but counts.

I’m not.

CG had all those guys last year as well. Two pretty evenly matched teams last year and I bet Cathedral returns more starters. I’m obviously biased, but I think Cathedral has the best defense in the state front to back. Obviously CG’s front 4 speaks for itself, but pretty sure CG is pretty inexperienced at LB and loses some key pieces in the secondary. October 15th should be a battle.

Well not really.

I have no clue what other P/P feeder programs look like and frankly don't care. From the poster above it sounds like a lot of the Evansville kids play in the same youth leagues as the public school kids.

So why do the rest of the state P/P's get lumped in with regards to an automatic one class bump?

The CYO advantage stems from the depth that is produced at the feeder level. In other words, a 3A school like Chatard is drawing from 7-8 small catholic grade schools on the northside of Indianapolis who all have their own football teams comprised of 15-20 players who all get to play compared to a 3A public who may only be drawing from 1 large junior high school, in some cases two. So in most years Chatard is bringing in 3-4 QB's who have all started from 3rd grade on, 5-6 RB's, a ton of OL/DL, and so on. It not only provides depth once they get to the 9th grade but also competition that always rises to the top. If a school like Frankfort is just learning how to put on pads and standing in a huddle in the 9th grade that is a Frankfort problem, not a Chatard problem.

Lol

Also, 5A isn't pretty spread out throughout Indy Metro, just more feeble conjecture on DT's part. Cathedral is currently a sectional with both Terre Haute Schools nearly 100 miles away. Only way Roncalli and Cathedral wouldn't be in the same sectional is if Cathedral somehow went North although Dwenger being an auto bump would almost assuredly prevent that from happening.

7A babyyyyy!!! Really looking forward to the Class 84A one off state champion game between Cathedral and Roncalli in 2043.

Lol. If Cathedral and Roncalli are in the same tournament you can rest be assured they are in the same sectional and playing each other in the first round. Tale as old as time. Geographically, there isn't a school closer to Cathedral than Roncalli at the 5A level.

Roncalli and Cathedral would be in the same 5A sectional and thus highly unlikely they would simultaneously be playing in 6A.

Does an automatic one class bump really solve things? The SF has essentially been an automatic one class bump for many privates since it's inception and when you cut off the head of one snake the next one arises. Does anyone not think Roncalli and Dwenger are the odds on favorite to win 5A most years with Cathedral going to 6A? Chatard to win 4A with Dwenger and Roncalli in 5A? And so on and so on?

I’d concede that argument if Westfield had Cathedral’s offensive line and defense but that isn’t the case. QB play is really the only one question mark coming into the season, and while starting a sophomore QB doesn’t seem ideal, O’Neil isn’t like most sophomore QB’s. Already holds FBS offers and played varsity last year. Oh quick O’Neil settles down will probably dictate the winning margin, but I don’t see Westfield stopping Cathedral more times than they score on Cathedral. If there was ever a time to break in a sophomore QB, it’s with Cathedral’s offensive line and defense behind him.

I know they did.

Right. And I'd like to think Cathedral got better last year as the season progressed. Unless the the soph QB is just extremely overwhelmed (he played a fair amount last year) I don't see Westfield keep it close. Irish D is just too good.