Footballking16

4 minutes ago, temptation said:

LOL at using a one off and a team that is .333 since winning that state championship to try to drop the mic.

(Lake Central has been nearly .500 in that same time frame by the way.)

Why’d West leave LC for Warren then?  Enrollment.

Why’d he leave Warren for FC?  SES.

If Lawrence Central played Lake Central’s schedule in Lake Central’s conference in that half of the bracket they’d be considered a decent program.

1 hour ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

This conversation has been had many times before. Look up the thread "Unsuccessful Programs" . Here's some data I provided previously:

There’s nearly as many schools in the top half of enrollment and below 50% F/R lunch in 6A that I would define as not having long term success as the schools you listed for 6A in the bottom half of enrollment and over 50% of F/R lunch? What’s your point?

All that illustrates is success isn’t limited to any single factor.

5 minutes ago, temptation said:

For the last time, I’ve conceded that there are a multitude of factors but none bigger than the two mentioned in this very thread.  Nothing is guaranteed…just scroll up and take a look at my head start analogy.

And why won’t you give me names?  If one is true, shouldn’t the reverse also be true?

Low SES + the bottom of your class in enrollment = irrelevance on a state level.

Prove me wrong by naming some that make the above statement false.

Try all CAPS or bold next time.  Maybe he always sat in the front of the classroom on East 56th Street.

(Or watched too many Disney movies.)

Lawrence Central has a better football program than Lake Central and has had statewide success in the last decade. Deal with it.

50 minutes ago, temptation said:

Damn.  Penn?  Already?  I was almost on board.

NC will be fascinating to watch as the heat has to be turned up on O’Shea this fall.  I think he’s easily a top 3 coach in the “former MIC” (maybe better).

Not ready to throw dirt on Fishers yet, Noblesville has zero excuse this fall and don’t know enough about Lake Central.

Now do the opposite for me.  Gimme the names of some 6A schools with low enrollment and low SES that have had consistent success on a state wide level.

Hell, do ANY class for me.

I don't need to give you names of other programs. I've given you plenty of names and examples of programs over the years who have high enrollment/his SES numbers that don't translate to winning football programs, which has been your primary argument for years. 

Why can't we agree that there is a multitude of factors that go into a winning formula and it isn't limited to money and high enrollment? Seems logical, no?

19 minutes ago, temptation said:

We can go back and forth all day about CG.  This argument is splitting hairs.  They are a contender more often than not.  That we agree on.

Does Carmel have a “really good coach” though?  I’m not completely sold.

Meatloaf said it best…two outta three ain’t bad.

For every one Center Grove, you have a Penn, Noblesville, Lake Central who check both boxes in the SES and enrollment departments who are just flat bad. Throw in a North Central who has been historically bad and a Fishers program who continues to slide further and further into mediocrity.

10 hours ago, Indiana Fan said:

I agree to an existent. But just put this into perspective, a school that has 3,000 students has 1,500 boys to choose from for football. A school that has 2,600 students has 1,300 students to choose from. That’s 200 more potentially good football players to choose from. You take a school like Carmel or BD, and they are doubling the amount of potential good football players another school might have. Take your best players on your team, and Carmel has 2 of that best player. Yes in can be overcome obviously I’m not stupid, but it sure does help having more boys to choose from.

But at some point, there's a certain threshold where # of boys shouldn't really matter. If you have 1500 boys in your school, that's enough (or should be) to field a more than competitive football team. I don't have exact numbers, but I would imagine that most 6A schools have at least 100+ football players in its program grades 9-12. Some schools might dress 80-100 kids Friday night, but in reality you're really only relying on maybe 40-50 kids who see the field on any given Friday night. If you have 2500+ kids in your school and can't find 40-50 decent to good football players to the point you're not competitive on a Friday night that's either a culture or coaching problem. SES at a 6A school is all window dressing. There's more than enough affluent to middle class schools with 2500+ kids who have average to bad football programs right now.

16 minutes ago, BTF said:

And "others" have gone on record dismissing the advantage that enrollments numbers have. I do give credit to the coaches that built championship teams at those schools. You have to be a good coach to do that. But it is a major advantage nonetheless. 

BD and Carmel are the only two remaining 6A schools that have a significant enrollment advantage. Warren Central, while still a very big school, isn't as big as it once was in comparison to the rest of 6A. There's now 13 schools within 1,000 students of Warren Central and many are closing the gap rather quickly. They don't have a talent advantage over anybody right now. 10-20 years ago they would frequently line up 3-4 legit D1 prospects on either side of the ball and the game would be over by kick off against all but one or two opponents. That isn't the case anymore and I'm guessing will never be the case again going forward. 

6 minutes ago, BTF said:

Disagree. Not with those enrollments. Ben Davis and Warren Central have enough talent in the halls for a good coach to have them contending every single year. 

Then Ben Davis needs to get rid of Jason Simmons then ASAP, he's 25-24 in 4 years at Ben Davis. The enrollment gap between Warren Central and many of the HCC schools is drastically closing as is the talent gap. Warren and BD can no longer just show up and win on talent alone like they could for the last 2-3 decades. 

1 hour ago, temptation said:

Spot on.

Be interesting to see how dominant CG can be over the next few years. They’re clearly the cream of the crop in 6A but even the ardent of CG supporters have to admit the last two senior classes contained some generational talent. CG may come back to Earth and that would open things up and make 6A interesting.

4 hours ago, BDGiant93 said:

And yet Brownsburg is dropping Ben Davis after this year.

 

I've been watching this thread. I don't have much to add. I think a lot of the narrative around Warren Central sounds like the BD narrative in the late 2000's. Kirschner came in in 2007 after Tom Allen left. People were talking about diminishing returns on the Westside. 

BD went 7-4 in 2007 losing to Pike in the Sectional. In 2008, the Giants went 10-4 losing to CG in the Semi-State. They were highly-ranked in 2009, but the season unraveled quickly and the Giants finished 5-5. They were 6-4 in 2010 and people like Driven T and folks were writing the obit of the program. In 2011, Kirschner took a team with a former FB at QB to the Regional Championship Game against undefeated Carmel. Matt Brock set a new one-year passing record that year. Of course, then came the Kyle Castner years. 2012, 2013, and 2014...then the Reese Taylor years in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The 2017 team was one of the best ever to play in Indiana.

So, yeah, things ebb and flow in large programs. Sustained success is not a guarantee any more. 

Coaching changes and things are not really that surprising either to me. Kirschner wants people who work at his speed and who have his commitment. He's going to do things right, and he wants coaches that do too. I respect the man tremendously, and it may take some time, but Warren will succeed under him.

As far as why they're dropping CG, I have no idea. Those things happen for a number of reasons. It's my understanding that Coach Simmons doesn't want to drop CG at BD. Anyway...that's my 42 cents.

I'm not completely writing off Warren Central or Ben Davis or leaving them for dead. I'm just convinced the window where we can expect Warren Central and Ben Davis to automatically be state title contenders every single year has closed. There will be years where both BD and WC have special classes with good talent who absolutely can and may even win it all, but there's too many other programs who have closed the talent gap.

3 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

I would say 90% of the Cathedral starting baseball roster is CYO. The only player I can think of that isn't is Kyuss Gargett, our starting corner for the football team this season. Our starting pitcher is no other than the Mr. Football kicker Ben Gomez (Immaculate Heart of Mary)! Sidewinder! 
 

Also, it is worth noting that the boy's golf team has a puncher's chance at the State Golf title as well this weekend. And Boy's Rugby just beat Penn for the state title. This has been a senior class for the ages at Cathedral. 

It always ruins a perfectly good narrative though!!

10 minutes ago, Grover said:

CYO 😁

I'd be shocked if less than 95% of LCC's and Andrean's rosters were comprised of anything but CYO kids although in this day of age guessing travel ball gets in the way of CYO baseball. It's not what it used to be.

I couldn't tell you where Illiana Christian is located on a map but can assure you it has nothing to do with CYO. 

59 minutes ago, temptation said:

I can get on board with this.

Next discussion question:  Is Fishers a step behind HSE?  If so, why?

Don't know the optics or inner-workings of either high school but yes fair to say HSE is the football school of the two. Both seem to have solid baseball programs who have each won state titles the last few years and basketball programs seem to be equal although Fishers has a to-be sophomore that is one of the best prospects in the country. I think Haralson has La Lumiere or Montverde written all over him, but should Fishers hang onto him, they'll be a major player in the state tournament the next few years. 

8 minutes ago, Southside said:

We will find out Saturday night!! 

Cathedral baseball on an extremely impressive run the last few weeks. Think they were right around .500 with a couple ties (how do you tie in baseball?) heading in to the tournament. 

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

This is exactly how I see it but playing devil’s advocate for a moment…what has HSE done to elevate themselves into this conversation in your opinion? 

Think they're on the right trajectory. Michael Kelly is a very good coach and took over a program who had wildly underachieved the three seasons prior. Went 8-3 last year and honestly should have beaten Westfield last year in the sectional final, that was a brutal way to lose a football game. 

I put them as a contender simply because they avoided sectional 4 and if they are able to knock off the Carmel/Westfield winner (which isn't out of the question) they will be the 6A North representative come Thanksgiving Weekend.

11 minutes ago, temptation said:

What separates those teams from BD and Brownsburg in your opinion?

I think Brownsburg is better than both Warren and BD but you'd have to be crazy at this point to trust Brownsburg in an elimination game. 

South will go through Cathedral/Center Grove and then North will go through the Carmel/Westfield winner and HSE. HSE dodged a huge bullet avoiding Sectional 4. 

17 minutes ago, coachkj said:

I don't follow Notre Dame closely.  There are six Indiana players on their roster. Doesn't sound like a wall.  Pete Werner flipped from ND to OSU. Everyone in the nation wanted Curry. Emil Ekiyor has started most of his career at Alabama. That's off the top of my head. Do they only recruit the guys they know they can get?

Also, Notre Dame never offered Ekiyor. Was committed to Michigan for the longest time and flipped to Alabama close to signing day. Had Markese Stepp in the same class as Ekiyor but had to rescind their offer due to grades.

3 minutes ago, coachkj said:

I don't follow Notre Dame closely.  There are six Indiana players on their roster. Doesn't sound like a wall.  Pete Werner flipped from ND to OSU. Everyone in the nation wanted Curry. Emil Ekiyor has started most of his career at Alabama. That's off the top of my head. Do they only recruit the guys they know they can get?

That’s Bob’s point. ND is extremely selective with who they covet in-state. Notre Dame extended 3 offers to in-state prospects for this incoming class; Joey Tanona, Ashton Craig, and Cayden Curry, 4 offers if you count Dasan McCullough who played his senior year in Bloomington but was a Kansas resident when ND offered. Two of the three committed and Curry was never heavily pursued by Notre Dame despite receiving an offer.

10 minutes ago, Grover said:

Okay.  I'm not going to argue with you over what "really wanted" means.   They did offer McCullough.  They also offered Caden Curry.

They offered 177 high school seniors in the class of 2022 per 247 knowing only 20-25 would eventually commit. Can’t prioritize everyone and neither McCullough (who wasn’t an in-state kid at the time he was offered) nor Curry were high priority targets. There’s a difference and that’s what Bob is alluding too.

https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/Season/2022-Football/Offers/

3 minutes ago, Grover said:

Dasan McCullough

Don’t think ND recruited Dasan overly aggressive and he was a Kansas resident when he committed to Ohio State initially very early in his high school career. 
 

Not a ND fan by any means, but Notre Dame is typically selective towards the in-state kids they covet and to Bob’s point, they win almost all the battles with kids they make priorities. Pete Werner is probably the last kid Notre Dame really wanted (at one point was committed to ND) but ultimately flipped to Ohio State.

13 minutes ago, BTF said:

A school like Warren Central might be "circling the drain," but with the talent at that schools disposal, a good coach should be able to right the ship in a matter of a couple of years.

Is Jayson West not a good coach? He has three large class titles (at two different schools) and upped and moved to a school that has a tenth of the history that Warren does. That’s an extremely telling story line. No one is doubting Mike Kirschner’s coaching abilities, but Warren isn’t the juggernaut it once was nor are they feared. They’ve been passed by more than a few schools since their last state title.

1 minute ago, temptation said:

Eh, the departures (from both an athlete and a coaching point of view) don’t exactly paint a rosy picture.

Kirschner is proven so he gets the benefit of the doubt from me but I fear his best coaching days are behind him.

Still good enough to get the job done, no doubt but there is much more necessary to win a state title.

Question for the group, and I don’t have the answer)…

Kirschner left Mount Vernon and they won the state title THE VERY NEXT SEASON.  Telling or coincidence?

He definitely gets credit for building the Marauders to that level but the next guy finished the job.

Am I overthinking this one?

 

 

Both.

Definitely gets credit for taking on the job, but let’s be real, Mt. Vernon was a ticking time bomb. One of the fastest growing districts in the state and has been trending up for years. They will be a major player in 4A until they are inevitably bumped up again due to either enrollment or SF. 

1 hour ago, Warren Central Warrior said:

I guess Warren Central is doomed. I never thought I would see the day the Warriors would fall from the ranks of the elite

Warren Central isn’t doomed, they just no longer are the premier program in Indiana as they once were a decade or so ago. They’ve been passed by a few other programs the last couple years and I expect that trend to continue.

Warren Central no longer plays in the state’s premier football conference and are now dropping the state’s measuring stick in Center Grove, from future schedules. Warren Central used to be the barometer for success in this state, that is no longer the case.

1 minute ago, BTF said:

I just think Temp is smart enough to know that you don't hire a championship coach and trend down. 

Most coaches don't rebuild and win championships in their first year. 

Anyway, whatever happens happens. No dog in the fight. 

Warren Central HAD a state championship coach already on the sidelines (two different schools I might add) and decided to leave for a bottom of the barrel program in the HHC. That’s should tell you everything you need to know about the direction Warren Central is heading.

6 minutes ago, BTF said:

How can you not be trending up by hiring a state championship coach? Someone riddle me that please. Jump in Temp.

That state champion coach went 4-5 last year. They’re likely not going to challenge for a state title the next few years.
 

Temp isn’t going to save you, in fact he’s already hurting your case, lamenting that Warren has already lost two starters to other programs. That isn’t a sign of a program on the rise.