Footballking16

1 hour ago, Muda69 said:

Goes to show how largely meaningless a primarily enrollment-based classification system is.  

It's not meaningless.

Teams who have success in their enrollment based class are bumped up a class for a minimum two year cycle. 

On 8/21/2021 at 2:51 PM, temptation said:

And THIS was the year they put Warren on the schedule?  Yikes.

Think it would be foolish to write off Chatard just yet. Unless this Chatard team is completely different from any Chatard team I’ve seen the last 20 years, they aren’t going to roll up and die.

Warren appeared to have several conditioning issues last week and with another scorcher in the forecast, tired football players lead to undisciplined football players. Chatard has thrived in this kind of situation in years past playing with nothing to lose. Unless Chatard self destructs with turnovers I think it’s a close game. Might be my upset pick of the week.

2 minutes ago, DT said:

That Big Ten QB counts for 500 students all on his own.

 

Didn’t they beat the same B10 QB by 40 last year? You can’t complain about enrollment disparity as a 6A school and get run off the field by a school with 700 kids. Doesn’t work that way.

Just now, temptation said:

Can’t speak to the flow of the Pike/Zionsville game but 28-10 is pretty damn impressive.

NC’s loss didn’t “shock me” but the margin did.

LC is in deep trouble and is making @DT look like a prophet.

I had five turnovers for BD tonight (though I may be off by one as I think a late INT was overturned).  I’m sure we will hear the normal “BD will improve” rhetoric but they simply looked overmatched all night.  

 

Saw the Pike-Zionsville game was 14-10 going into the 4th. Thought Zionsville was going to roll. 

1 minute ago, WestfieldRocks said:

Westfield also was without QB Maximus Webster for a lot of the second and third quarter, after taking a hit early second quarter. Backup Cole Ballard (Colt's GM's son) threw three of the four pics, the last two when Westfield was knocking on the door to score. Westfield also had a TD taken away via a penalty after Ballard ran it in. The next play he was knocked out with a knee injury, and Webster came back in.

Westfield had no answer for that huge, quick Cathedral defense. They almost totally shut down the run game and were in the QBs face almost all game. Credit Westfield's defense, down their best player, but still held the Irish to 14 poinits, and if not for two very costly Ballard errant throws deep in Irish territory, could have actually won this game.

You answered two of the questions I had: was Webster injured or were they just rotating QB’s. I thought Webster may have been hurt but did see him come back in. And was wondering if that was Chris’ son or perhaps former mayor Greg Ballard’s son.

1 minute ago, BTF said:

Good for Warsaw! Everyone is so wrapped up in Carmel beating Trinity, but this was a heck of a win vs Ohio. 

Did all of Ohio open up tonight?  I thought Ohio usually started their season a week after Indiana? Nonetheless impressive win.

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

LN’s win over Avon was the lone bright spot in the unofficial MIC/HCC showdown tonight as Fishers, Zionsville, Brownsburg and HSE easily disposed of their MIC counterparts.

Same old story in August...will it finally happen in October/November?

Zionsville and HSE were expected although I think Pike gave Zionsville more than they wanted. NC is pretty stunning, thought that program may have turned a corner. Your long concerns about Simmons probably warrant recognition.

1 minute ago, temptation said:

@Footballking16 is gonna have a field day with this final score.

Lol.

I think it goes without being said. Columbus North has a ton more to worry about than than 6A mega enrollment school that they play once every 15 years in the tournament or voluntarily schedule.

4 minutes ago, Olympian06 said:

Cathedral with a 14-0 win tonight to open the season. That defense from Cathedral was extremely good. Picking off Westfield 4 times.. O'Neil from Cathedral throwing for 261 yards.. helluva showing by a Sophmore QB. 

O’Neil looked great. Took him a couple series to get his feet under him but he’s going to be a treat the next 3 years. Offensive line didn’t look very good and that was with Popeye Williams absent from the game.

Cathedral was a train wreck in the red zone in the first half. Dumb penalties, dumb play calling, poor execution, definitely left a few points off the board.

Defense showed out all night. Was on the field a ton in the 2nd half, especially in the 3rd quarter, but turned Westfield away every time forcing key turnovers.

Credit Westfield, they played extremely well. Was down their best defensive player and really controlled the line of scrimmage.

Cathedral 14

Westfield 0

Final

Cathedral up 14-0 late 3rd

Cathedral Westfield tied at 0 at half.

Irish have been a train wreck in the red zone.

17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I would have absolutely taken that bet on 4th and 1 when you coach elected not to punt.  No way was Cathedral going to put the ball in the air and CG was sending everyone and the kitchen sink.  With the level of D talent...absolutely would have taken that bet. Now if your coach had punted......that's a different question about odds...

Lol taken it for even money??? Obviously it's easy for you to say that in hindsight given the outcome.

Look, if you took that bet in a similar situation on Saturday's or Sunday's where you're allowed to legally bet in a real life setting you'd be down more money than you could count in a hurry. I subscribe to a forum where handicappers give picks and there was an article 2-3 years ago where one of the handicappers had compiled a list of data over a 10-15 year period in both college and NFL on the winning % of teams who possess the ball under two minutes with a one score lead in which the opposing team had zero timeouts. I forget the actual hard # (I'll have to find the article) but it was staggering. It was something like 675-45. Over 90% of the time the team with the ball and the lead won. 

4 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Will the HCTV be televising this game on IHSAATV tonight? Or will it only be on the radio only?

I didn’t see it on there yesterday. Thought I saw LC-HSE and Noblesville and whoever their opponent is. Cathedral streamed a few games on their Facebook page last year, not sure if that will be the case this year.

9 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Thank you for your response.  We will simply agree to disagree about the depth of an entire game being irrelevant to its final outcome.  I am also not sure I agree on that 4th and 1 that CG only had a 10% chance to win the play.  That sounds like pretty subjective probability to me. (but I am no statistician....just enough during college years to be dangerous)

I’m not sure how it isn’t irrelevant? Despite being significantly outgained Cathedral still had the ball with the lead and one play to win the game.

I guess what probability would you give then for a team to:

a) get a 4th and 1 stop

b) go 50+ yards with no TO’s

c) not only score but score a TD

all with just over a little minute left to play.

If I would have offered you even money prior to the 4th down play that Center Grove was going to win the game would you have seriously taken that bet?

17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Interesting view.  I might contend you are oversimplifying the game and basing it down to one play.  As Grover pointed out, had there not been a 70 yd interception return earlier, your comments about the game end don't even come into play.  There were several factors in that game that led to the final outcome...not just the last series of plays and decisions.

Cathedral had difficulty moving the ball during the game.  They had one offensive TD, that occurred from a missed tackle on the sideline.  Cathedral had a total of 183 yds....60 of it rushing.

https://www.maxpreps.com/games/10-16-2020/football-fall-20/cathedral-vs-center-grove.htm?c=bYaraJJVeU25NW4LqacUTQ#tab=box-score&schoolid=

At the end of the day, it was a great game.  Kids were not injured (a great thing given its a year end non-conference regular season game, with nothing at stake other than bragging rights) with both teams winning their class state championships.  It was in 2020...as someone else said...its history.

Question...why the tone above? Isn't it ok on a discussion forum for people to have different takes? 

I'm not arguing whether Center Grove dominated the stat sheet or not. That's really irrelevant from the point I'm making. Despite being outgained, Cathedral had the ball, leading, with a half yard to win the game with a little over a minute left. If that scenario occurred 100 times the likelihood of Cathedral winning occurs ~90 times. Absolutely everything had to go right for Center Grove to win that game and everything wrong for Cathedral to lose given what transpired.

You're right it is all history and nothing that happened last year has an effect this year. 

18 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Same here.  I never spent really any time understanding how they work or what they mean.

 

It's essentially a handicap. If the Colt's are +7 against the Patriots, in the gambling world the game theoretically starts with the Colt's leading 7-0. The Patriot's (-7) would need to win the game by at least 8 points for the bet to be declared a winner. 

21 minutes ago, Jon said:

So you are saying this great Cathedral O-line could not come up with a half yard when it counted  

I'm saying Cathedral ran a terrible 4th and a half yard play instead of running it behind their offensive line. Or simply punt.

To win that game Center Grove had to:

a) Stop Cathedral on 4th and half a yard

b) Go 50+ yards with no timeouts with a little over a minute left

c) Not only score, but score a TD

To win that game Cathedral had to:

a) gain half a yard

If you don't understand probability and how it relates to the likelihood of an outcome occurring at a certain juncture of time that's fine, just say you don't understand. Cathedral absolutely should have won that game. They didn't. 

16 minutes ago, Jon said:

I don't think the numbers support the claim of "should've". Here are some numbers from last years CG vs Cathedral:

Total yards:           Cathedral 180  CG 332
Rushing yards:      Cathedral 54    CG 148
Passing yards:      Cathedral 126   CG 184
Offensive points:  Cathedral 6(1 td)   CG 17 
Int:                         Cathedral 0       CG 1
I will let these numbers speak for themselves. 
 
Now that this is Westfield vs Cathedral thread I will give some numbers that relate to Westfield.
West fields numbers against Center Grove.

Total yards:      293
Rushing yards: 133
Passing yards: 160 
Offensive points:  14
Int: 2

Cathedral with the ball leading 13-10, less than 2 minutes, 4th and half a yard, no TO's for CG. The probability of Center Grove winning at that juncture of the game was very slim. It's a game Cathedral should've won but didn't. Everything had to go right for Center Grove and everything wrong for Cathedral for the outcome to turn the way it did. 

21 minutes ago, DT said:

Not for high school.  Bet all you want on college and the NFL.  Keep the high school kids away from that crap.  They read this forum.  

Do we want Center Grove kids walking the halls telling their friends and teachers that they are 14.5 pt favorites over Warren Central?

I hope not.

 

 

Well they're a 27 point favorite in this hypothetical scenario.

Guessing Bears62 hypothetical handicapping won't have single effect on tonight's outcome. Now that is something I'm willing to bet on 😛

27 minutes ago, DT said:

Why are you young people so hooked on gambling?

 

Because we love hypothetical gambling. 

11 hours ago, Bears62 said:

GOTW: Cathedral (-14.5) at Westfield

Ben Davis at Brownsburg (pk)

Carmel at Louisville Trinity (-18)

Center Grove (-27) at Warren Central

Lafayette Jeff (-11.5) at West Lafayette 

Lawrence North at Avon (-5.5)

Mishawaka at Mishawaka Marian (-3.5)

New Palestine at Decatur Central (-5)

Noblesville at Mount Vernon (-6.5)

North Central (-14.5) at Fishers

Penn (-3) at Valparaiso 

Pike at Zionsville (-15.5)

Sheridan at Western Boone (-12.5)

Lawrence Central at HSE (-19)

LCC at Tri-West (-8.5)

Homestead (-16.5) at FW Northrop

FW Snider (-12) at FW North

FW Dwenger (-20.5) at Fort Wayne Wayne

Evansville Central (-17) at Evansville Mater Dei 

Columbus East at Whiteland (pk)

Jesuit Brebeuf at Bishop Chatard (-29.5)

Andrean at Merrillville (-9.5)

GOTW: Cathedral (-14.5) at Westfield

Ben Davis at Brownsburg (pk)

Carmel at Louisville Trinity (-18)

Center Grove (-27) at Warren Central

Lafayette Jeff (-11.5) at West Lafayette 

Lawrence North at Avon (-5.5)

Mishawaka at Mishawaka Marian (-3.5)

New Palestine at Decatur Central (-5)

Noblesville at Mount Vernon (-6.5)

North Central (-14.5) at Fishers

Penn (-3) at Valparaiso 

Pike at Zionsville (-15.5)

Sheridan at Western Boone (-12.5)

Lawrence Central at HSE (-19)

LCC at Tri-West (-8.5)

Homestead (-16.5) at FW Northrop

FW Snider (-12) at FW North

FW Dwenger (-20.5) at Fort Wayne Wayne

Evansville Central (-17) at Evansville Mater Dei 

Columbus East at Whiteland (pk)

Jesuit Brebeuf at Bishop Chatard (-29.5)

Andrean at Merrillville (-9.5)

7 minutes ago, Grover said:

Agreed.  But please describe how they should have won.

Because your team had to go nearly 60 yards with a little over a minute left and no timeouts after previously stopping Cathedral on 4th and a half yard on play where Cathedral wins eventually if they run literally any other play (or punt).

There were so many things that had to go right in Center Grove’s favor for Cathedral to lose that game.

1 minute ago, Grover said:

Cathedral should have won that game?   Uh...okay.

They should’ve but they didn’t and that’s all but counts.

1 hour ago, temptation said:

Don’t discount the two (that I know of) D1 CG transfers from Brownsburg.

I’m not.