Footballking16

9 minutes ago, DT said:

USC and TX have been irrelevant since reggie Bush and Vince left town.

5 star athletes flood OSU/GA/LSU/AL/CLEM/ND because they see these schools consistently in the playoffs.  I dont see Urban Meyer becoming a big hit with the good old boy Texas high school football coaching network.  That takes years to achieve.  Chip Kelly was supposed to work wonders at UCLA.  He has been a flat out bust.  COVID has hurt college football in the west much more than in any other region of the country.  They will have difficulty returning to full speed.  It could take years.

When was the last time Michigan was relevant? A lot longer than USC and Texas.

Texas still recruits at an extremely high level but Tom Herman is in way over his head. USC got hammered with NCAA probations and hired coordinators in Kiffin/Sark/Helton with their next 3 hires which has proven to be a disaster. What LA kid is going to want to play for Clay Helton? USC is a good hire away from immediately returning to the top of the college football hierarchy.

Notre Dame has landed exactly one 5* in their last 5 recruiting classes, a TE from Kentucky. 

10 minutes ago, Bobref said:

They will this year. Probably 2 of them. I hope.

*Big game for Notre Dame.

Clemson's talent level is 2-3 scores better than ND and ND's record in "big games" this century speaks for itself. Game will be interesting to say the least with Lawrence out. 

9 minutes ago, DT said:

As usual, you are pretty sure of yourself.

Meyer is a diffferent dude.  He likes to swim against the current and is not afraid of controversy.  Its widely known his dream job was to coach ND.  With that option likley out the window, where can he have the most success utilizing the skillset that brought him such great success at OSU?

Its Michigan over TX and USC, primarily due to culture, recruiting focus and style of play.  Rememeber that Urban is typically a 6 and out guy.  he is late 50s with heart trouble.  I think he would like to coach 5 more years max.  He can fix UM over nite.  It will take years to build the TX and LA recruiting pipelines to the southeast, where he is connected.  He may not have that much time, or want to invest that much time of what he has left.  He went 12-0 his first year at OSU.  he could do the same at UM.  

He can do that at USC and Texas.

Meyer isn't out-recruiting Saban, Dabo, and Smart for Southeast recruits (at Michigan) and not out-recruiting Day at Ohio State. However, if he goes to USC or Texas, he can put a stranglehold on the Southern California/Texas market while still being able to recruit the Midwest. What Midwest kid wouldn't want to go to Los Angeles or Austin giving the coaching staff is the right fit?

13 minutes ago, DT said:

Clemson has become what USC, Florida State  and Texas used to be, a national program.  They achieved that thru consistent and competitive appearances in the college football playoff.  

And Michigan is still Michigan, with the biggest fan base in the country after Notre Dame.  

Outside Ohio State and Alabama and maybe Oklahoma, there isn't a better college football program than USC. USC is a blue blood college football program, the last 10 years doesn't change that. Texas may not have the historical accolades of Michigan, but in the last 50 years is entirely more relevant than Michigan. It's the most resourceful college program in the country.

11 minutes ago, DT said:

Got to get him there first dude.  Good luck w that.

Hed be at either place already if he really wanted the job.

Well both jobs technically haven't been open since he's been available.

Can say with 99.9% certainty that Urban won't even get a call from Michigan when/if the job becomes open and can say with 100% conviction Urban will NEVER coach at Michigan.

16 minutes ago, DT said:

Perhaps, but can you get him out there?  That is the real question.  And for that matter, how many big games do USC and TX really play in anuually?  The ND-USC rivalry has lost much of its luster, and no one watches PAC 12 football other than west coast people.  Texas vs Oklahoma?  No big deal anymore.  Its a regional rivalry.  Meyer is used to coaching in BIG GAMES against Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU<, Auburn, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin., Michigan State, Nebraska.   Its not even close.  

What big games does Michigan play lol? They no longer play ND every year and its a 40 point loss every year to Ohio State. If the ND-USC rivalry has lost most of its luster, what do you call the OSU-UM game?

I'd argue Clemson doesn't play a single big game playing in the ACC, but that doesn't stop them from being one of the best college football programs in the country. Urban at Texas or USC immediately makes those schools national title contenders. The big games will the come in the form of the college football playoff. 

20 minutes ago, DT said:

California has been losing recruits to SEC colleges consistently now for a decade.  Another trend you might not have noticed is that the west coast, due to changes in diet and the new wave vegan movement, is producing fewer and smaller linemen than in years past.  I recall some quotes from the Ohio State staff when they played Oregon a few years back in the college playoff.  The OSU coaches were shocked at how small the Oregon linemen were.  This is a trend up and down the west coast.  

Texas high school linemen are not being schooled to run block or to use their size to their advantage.  They mostly stand around and watch the ball get thrown 120 times a game.

These are fundamental changes that will funnel up and through to the NFL over time.  The Alabama/Georgia/Florida/Louisiana/South Carolina recruiting zone is the most fertile for high end talent in the history of high school and college football.  Texas, and especially USC, are a long way away from the action.  And both schools must share the California and Texas resources with 30 other local schools.  

The PAC 12 is quickly running towards irrelevancy.  Christobal is the only elite coach in the entire conference.  David Shaw has had a nice run at Stanford but his name does not come up when big jobs open.  How does a life long California guy go into the southeast to recruit against the SEC?

 

That speaks to the ineptitude of the coaching culture in the PAC12 especially at SC. Guarantee you with a namesake like Urban, Trojans are recruiting above and beyond everybody else. It was too long ago when USC was the most dominant program in college football under Pete Carroll. Those teams were chalked full of Southern California talent and in fact, didn't need to look elsewhere. The football talent in California (especially LA) still exists and is ripe for the taking. Urban Meyer solves this problem overnight.  

9 minutes ago, DT said:

Those jobs are not what they used to be.

College football is losing popularity in the western US and Texas plays its own unique regional style of ball that puts it at a disadvantage against the NFL style play of the SEC and the BIG Ten, and the ACC to a lesser extent.  Elite coaches know this.  Mike Leach just left a cushy job at Washington State to become SEC cannon fodder at Miss State.  Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian left the bright lights of LA behind to work for Saban at Alabama.  Chip Kelly was exposed as a fraud with the Eagles and went back with hgis tail between his legs to the PAC 12 at UCLA.  Mel Tucker bailed on Colorado after one year to coach the MSU Spartans.  Oregon will likley lose Mario Cristobal to a big time eastern college power or to the NFL, further weakening the western coaching ranks.

 

Those jobs aren't what they used to be because those programs made several bad decisions that have lead them to where they are now. Clay Helton and Tom Herman aren't on the same stratosphere as Urban Meyer. Los Angeles is the single best recruiting hot bed in the country and Texas high school football as a whole speaks for itself. If you're an LA kid would you want to play for Clay Helton or go east? Put a coach like Urban Meyer into the equation its a no-brainer. 

13 minutes ago, DT said:

I dont see USC or Texas competing with the SEC titans or Ohio State any time in the near future.  Oklahoma is in that class and they have not faired well in the playoff.  

That's because Urban Meyer isn't coaching USC, Texas, or Oklahoma. 

14 hours ago, Bobref said:

 

I agree with you, @Footballking16 ... if you’re including the NFL. Otherwise, no. The ACC is good this year. But most years it’s a step below, in terms of quality depth.

I don't see Urban as an NFL coach. I don't think his offense translates to that level.

I see one of 3 things happening in regards to Urban's future.

1) staying on as an analyst with Fox. His health problems are noted and he doesn't need any more money

2) Taking the job at Texas or USC. Herman bought himself another game with Saturday's win but will be gone here by the end of the year. This makes most sense out of the two, but either USC or Texas would be back to national title contenders sooner than later.

3) Hired back on at Ohio State. Ryan Day is quickly becoming a hot NFL commodity. Re-hiring Urban becomes a no brainer. 

11 hours ago, DT said:

I really dislike the style of play in Texas.  Its basically 7 on 7 with the linemen standing around and watching.  No defense   QBs throw 50 to 60 passes per game.  Offenses are stacked with talent and the lesser athletes play defense.  I would think that coaches like Saban and Meyer would not be attracted to this style of play.  And these kids are learning this style at the pee wee bantam level, so by the time they finish high school, its all they know.  

The SEC is the closest you will get to NFL football at the college level.  Why would Saban and Meyer want to downgrade to a lower level of play in the Pac 12 or the Big 12.  Ohio State is basically an SEC team.  Meyer would turn Michigan into one in 3 years.  Personally, Id love to see it.  I want to go back to the days when the OSU-Mich game meant everything relative to the Big Ten and the national rankings.  

Michigan is still #1 All Time in total wins      http://www.winsipedia.com/ranking/all-time-wins

It will take Ohio State another 18 to 20 years to pass the Wolverines on the all time chart.

I believe Meyer is the only coach in the country who could quickly reverse UM fortunes and return the program to the top.

 

Michigan has 1 national title since 1948. Texas and USC are both sleeping giants strictly based on their proximity to recruiting hot beds. Michigan is still a good job but not near the job of Texas or USC.

Saturday, Urban wouldn't even say Michigan's name on the Fox half time report. He hates Michigan as much as Michigan hates him. Urban wouldn't go to Michigan strictly on principle. 

5 minutes ago, DT said:

The Michigan job is bigger and better than both USC and Texas.  

The PAc 12 is dying and the Big 12 is a joke

Meyer knows this

He knows the best football is played in the SEC and the B10

It’s not though.

Meyer is going to Texas or USC. No chance he entertains the Michigan job just as Michigan has no interest.

12 minutes ago, DT said:

He could retire after this season.  The situation there appears to be very toxic.  Dont know how he could possibly recruit black athletes in the current environment.  Just imagine what other recruiters from other schools must be saying about the Iowa program on the recruiting trail.

Ferentz should do the honorable thing and step aside after the season.  He will likely go to the NFL if he doesnt want to hang up the whistle.

 

Is it though? I know you love your recruiting rankings and to date Iowa has a top 25 class and only one de-commitment. Not saying their isn't a toxic environment at Iowa (because I'm not around the program) but get a feeling it may be overblown to a degree. 

40 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

They should cut 30% of the Bowls anyway 

yes, a lack of remembering the adjusted schedule on my part.....   Go this route instead.... Iowa finishes under 500 he is toast 

You think they fire Ferentz after 20+ years? I don't know, too invested in him at this point. I think firing Ferentz amidst a pandemic could set Iowa back 5 years. Who knows what kind of budget they are looking at after they buy him out and all the lost revenue this last year. Iowa isn't really an easy place to recruit at (unless you've been doing it 20 years like Ferentz) and whoever replaces him is going to have an uphill battle without the ability to host or do in-home visits. 

I do think Iowa would be wise to get ahead and put Ferentz on some kind of retirement plan in the next 3-4 years where they can appoint a successor but outright firing him given the circumstances could be costly. 

58 minutes ago, itiswhatitis said:

Maybe IU gets to celebrate their bowl game early.  They've got a tough schedule and with no cupcakes to pad them to 6 wins, it will be tough to get to a bowl.  How are they gonna go the bowls this year?

There isn't a win requirement for bowl eligibility this year due to the scheduling unbalance. I imagine you'll see a fair amount of lower tier bowls cancelled this year, especially in states with attendance bans. Depending on the # of bowls that actually take place, I think a 4 win IU team gets in, especially with a win already over Penn State. I see wins against MSU, Rutgers, and Maryland to get to 4 and then Purdue and IU should be a dandy. 

24 minutes ago, DT said:

Im perplexed how you could make such a ridiculous statement

There is nothing more critical to success in college football than recruiting.  You can be the best college  football coach that God ever created, but your 2.9 star roster is rarely going to beat the 4.3 star roster, if ever

 

But that isn't the gap between IU and Kentucky's roster, it's not even close. Unless you're Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, etc the only way you're going to win is recruiting kids to your system and developing them along the way. That's not a ridiculous statement at all. Indiana, nor Kentucky, is ever going to recruit at those levels so the next best thing is to recruit players to your system that buy in and develop them along the way. This is exactly what schools like Iowa and Wisconsin do. 

Once you get outside the the top 200-250 players in any given class, it's all about how you develop them. There's 5-6 schools year in and year out who land 50-60% of the kids in that 200-250 range.

16 minutes ago, DT said:

In my view, its the difference between 3 star and 4 star recruits that separate the really good teams from the average ones.  

Indiana couldnt sniff a 4 star for decades.  They are starting to build their 4 star base and its showing in their improved performance on the field.

This might be Allen's single greatest accomplishment thus far.  

 

 

There's a huge gap between a 5* and a 4* and 4* and a 3*. Dissecting recruiting rankings, skill position players seem to warrant more stars than lineman, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Outside the top 200-300 prospects in any given year, football is a development sport. I don't think there's much difference between a low 4* and a high 3*, at least in the sense you make it out to be. Unless you're stockpiling your two deep with 5* (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, etc) I think recruiting rankings are pretty meaningless. Give me the coach/program who develops their players, especially their line the best. 

8 hours ago, DT said:

The recruiting rankings and star ratings given to prospects are completed through  a very methodical, scientific and comprehensive process    I trust them implicitly.

 There will always be outliers,  Players who achieve beyond the expectations of their individual ratings.  Teams that perform well above their grade (IU vs PSU) and others that consistently perform well below their ranking (TN/ARK)

But for the overwhelming majority of all outcomes, the teams with the highest ranked players always come out on top.  The composite rankings in fact have become so precise that they almost mirror the actual media and coaches rankings before and throughout the season.

AL, GA, CL and OSU are herad and shoulders above all others in the recruiting composite.  You could just cancel the rest of the season and throw those 4 into the ring and let them play it out to see who in fact is indeed the best.

 

 

I don't think it's any earth shattering revelation to conclude that the teams who recruit the best usually have the best success. But the gap between teams like Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia are off the chart wide. The gap between teams like Indiana and Kentucky aren't nearly as wide as at the top. 

Per the 247 composite you referenced up top, Kentucky's average recruit score is 86.95 (out of 100). IU's average recruit score is 84.66. That's not a huge discrepancy. Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State are all 92+ and Clemson comes in at 90. Huge separation between them and the rest of the field. 

1 hour ago, DT said:

They still have much better talent and would be favored by 10-14 in head to head

How do you figure? Penn State has even more talent than Kentucky and was only favored by 6 points yesterday. No chance Kentucky is a 2 score favorite over IU this year if favorites at all.

46 minutes ago, DT said:

They just lost to Rutgers

I understand that. It was also his first game. Didn’t Saban lose to UL-Monroe his first game at Alabama? It’s going to be 2-3 years one way or another before you can thoroughly judge this hire.

1 hour ago, DT said:

I thought the hiring of Tucker was an abysmal choice for MSU.  Sparty Nation is very unsettled at this point.

Jury still out, he’s coached one game. Dantonio didn’t exactly leave Tucker with a full cupboard as MSU was on a steady decline and he resigned the day before signing day. Didn’t really leave MSU with much viable options.

Couple that with the ongoing pandemic and  lack of time preparation in the spring and summer getting familiar with his team, I think most MSU fans realized this was going to be a tough year.

Was more shocked at how bad Michigan State was than impressed with Rutgers. Rutgers capitalized on 5 first half MSU turnovers but really didn’t do much after that. Think Rutgers will he sent back to Earth next week.

1 hour ago, DT said:

IU has a fairly long history against UK and Ive used the KY program as a measuring stick against IU since the series ended about ten years ago.

The teams were fairly equal back then.  The current data suggests otherwise.

Kentucky is on the verge of finishing multiple games under .500 while IU won the its most games last year since 1993 and appears on their way to winning at least 5 (if not more) games in a shortened season.

Kentucky won a program best 10 wins two years ago but barely went .500 last year and is sinking fast this year.

6 hours ago, Lysander said:

DT - a mutual friend who was sitting in the stands (and no longer participates on the GID) has asked me to remind you that “maybe it was CG that almost gift-wrapped the game to Cathedral.  The Irish had 183 yards of total offense with one scoring drive.  Their other score was a gimme pick 6.”

To paraphrase, he thinks you had somewhat selective memory and, as most always, he and his wife were sitting in the stands.  

He also commented  that it was a classic hard-hitting game.

Don’t kill the messenger.  Or do....I’m ambivalent.

 

Going to have to respectfully disagree with Trojan Dad on this one. True, Center Grove outgained Cathedral but they also had the ball for 10 minutes longer and ran 23 more plays (which obviously was their game plan from the start). However, the Irish D played lights out all night long. Steele had his moments but was never able to break one and Cathedral forced CG into many 3rd and longs and obvious passing down which you can tell isn't their style.

But yes, hard-hitting game all around and another eventful game in this great series.