FastpacedO

8 hours ago, PHJIrish said:

I agree with you.  Two years ago the Irish place kicker missed one PAT all season, and it hit the upright at UIndy.  I don't believe the small stands on the visitors side will be a problem because BD just doesn't travel well.  

Possibly not, but there will likely be a lot of non Cathedral and non Ben Davis fans at the game. It was a totally different scenario with Evansville Reitz as they brought a huge following.

1 hour ago, Irishman said:

NFL and NCAA goalposts are 18 feet, 6 inches wide. High school goalposts are 23 feet, 4 inches wide. 

Yes and High school goal posts are 20' tall from ground while NCAA goal posts 30' tall poles from ground.

 Also High school hash marks are 53'4" from the sidelines while NCAA hash marks are 60' from sidelines. Which can slightly alter alignment set Offensively. I guess for Cathedral they did play earlier in the year at Butler, but I don't think Ben Davis has played on a collegiate field. It may not matter at all when it is all said and done.

I might as well post them all so we can come back and look at it. Calpreps percentages of winning for Regionals. 50/50 games Bolded.

1A PLAYOFFS
Adams Central 87% Carroll (Flora, IN) 13%
Lutheran 81% Providence 19%
North Judson 60% Park Tudor 40%
North Decatur 57% Sheridan 43%

2A PLAYOFFS
Bluffton 73% Bishop Luers 27%
Lafayette Central Catholic 58% LaVille 42%
Southmont 58% Eastern Hancock 42%
Triton Central 58% North Posey 42%

3A PLAYOFFS
Heritage Hills 61% Batesville 39%
Bishop Chatard 98% Delta 2%
Gibson Southern 53% Tri-West Hendricks 47%
Knox 60% West Lafayette 40%

4A PLAYOFFS
East Central 96% Reitz Memorial 4%
Leo 74% Mississinewa 26%
New Palestine 90% Mooresville 10%
NorthWood 57% New Prairie 43%

5A PLAYOFFS
Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16%
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23%
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42%
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%

6A PLAYOFFS
Crown Point 53% Penn 47%
Ben Davis 80% Cathedral 20%
Hamilton Southeastern 57% Westfield 43%
Center Grove 97% Warren Central 3%

As for Calpreps projection it has Mishawaka as a 58% chance of winning and F.W. Snider 42% chance of winning, about as close as you can get to 50/50. They have Mishawaka favored by 16% it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with their predictor in 5A because 2 out of the 4 games in 5A are 50/50 games.

5A predictor

Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16%
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23%
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42%
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%

14 hours ago, BTF said:

Those rankings don't mean a hill of beans to me. The project a matchup tool is 50% joke. I'm not sure why you're bringing them up anyway. You said Fishers was better than Snider based on the Homestead matchup. That being the case, then Snider's better than Ben Davis based on the Warren Central matchup. I've been saying it for the past three weeks, throw transitive property out the window, it's not the end all be all. If you want to keep going, we can move on to why Carroll is better than Fishers based on your scenarios. Won't know until the games are played. I'll tell you right now that Ben Davis isn't beating Snider 46-14, lol. Are you aware of the many flaws in the computer ratings? If not, I'd be happy to enlighten you. 

Since you want to enlighten me, I will enlighten you. Before doing so the one and only reason I even threw a predictor up is because you were hung up on "transitive property" which didn't even work in your example. You seem to be really hung up on points. To me points me jack squat just like ranking and even computer projections. The reason transitive property did not work how you wanted: If Italy beat Sweden and Sweden beat France, so by, the transitive property Italy beat France. Now lets apply that here If Fishers beat Homestead and Homestead beat F.W. Snider so by the transitive property Fishers beat F.W. Snider (that would be transitive property even though that is not why I said that). However on your other example transitive property does not work: F.W. Snider beat Warren Central and Ben Davis beat Warren Central (they did not lose) then? Now that I have got that out of the way.

Onto "points", which don't mean anything to me. A win is a win be it by 1, 3, or 45 and a loss is a loss be it 1, 3, or 45. There are so much variables in a game it really doesn't matter. A teams Offense and Defense can play outstanding  and a Kick Off Return can change the game (just one example). When it comes to Calpreps they are not using points to predict an actual score in their model, the points gap determines percentages. If you were to blindly pick a team with the better record or the home team in case of equal records you would have a 69% chance of guessing correctly. Calpreps is hitting at about 85% in Indiana predicting 100% of the games played that still leaves 15% of being incorrect but is better than 50%.

You seem to have been hanging your hat on the F.W. Snider win over Warren Central in week 1. Fact remains Warren Central was 3-6 beating North Central and Pike (which were a given) and the only quality win was against Lawrence Central (who was 4-5). The only reason Warren Central is still alive (now 5-6) in the tournament is because they are in the worst Sectional in 6A with Tech 0-10 (dead last in 6A), Southport 2-9 (30 out of 32 in 6A), and Perry Meridian 2-8 (25 out if 32 in 6A). I don't use Warren Central as a gauge when talking Fishers and F.W. Snider. I would place Snider between 15-20 (Sagarin has them at 20 and Calpreps 26), I would have Fishers at about 12-15 (Sagarin has them at 11 and Calpreps has them at 11). Even though Fishers is out I still have them above Snider their losses were to HSE 2 times (their natural rival whom is really good has a legit shot at 6A North), Westfield (whom also is really good with a legit shot at 6A North), and Brownsburg (who was the top team in 6A until their meltdown in the last 8 minutes of the 4th qtr against Ben Davis).

2 minutes ago, BTF said:

You're the one that brought up transitive property, not me. IMG isn't part of the equation with regard to this discussion. 

Perhaps you're the one not paying attention. Ben Davis only loss came to the hands of IMG Academy (whom F.W. Snider did not play). F.W. Snider's 1 loss came to Homestead whom Fisher's (a team you said you have below Snider) beat. See the difference. For good measure here is a projection for you not using transitive property.

37 minutes ago, BTF said:

No, I don't think you have. "Transitive property," throw it out the window unless you're prepared to rank Snider ahead of Ben Davis. 

Did F.W. Snider beat IMG Academy in a game we all didn't know about?

36 minutes ago, Tin Cup said:

Any thoughts on this one, other than the "running clock" comments.  Delta has played some decent teams.  What kind of offense do they run?

Delta runs shotgun spread offensively from what I have seen and look to be a 50 defense.

On 11/4/2023 at 10:18 AM, BTF said:

I've got Snider just ahead of Fishers and Crown Point. 

On 11/4/2023 at 12:20 PM, BTF said:

You haven't been paying attention. 

Yes I have

On 11/4/2023 at 5:30 PM, HoopsCoach said:

I am an advocate of neutral sites to host tournament games after the sectional round, and I think the facilities in Indiana are capable of a format with neutral site hosts for regional and semi-state.  Here are my hypothetical neutral site regional games for this year.  All games would be played at locations with turf fields.  This will reduce travel times and remove field conditions as a variable.   It also gives schools an opportunity to showcase the investment they have made in their facilities.

Neutral Site Regionals - Friday Night

6A

Crown Point/Penn @ Chesterton

HSE/Westfield @ Noblesville

Ben Davis/Cathedral @ Arsenal Tech

Warren Central/Center Grove @ Franklin Central

 

My understanding is that Arsenal Tech's field is out of commission this year (Tech played their home games at U of I). Also Cathedral has in teh past used Tech as their homefield so would it be a neutral site? 

2 hours ago, Rodney said:

Don't let that distract you from the fact that the MIC is dead and HCC is the number one conference

Well the HCC does still have 2 teams still alive that are contenders in Westfield and Hamilton Southeastern. Brownsburg did have Ben Davis on the ropes and stumbled.

As for this game Ben Davis presents a lot of major challenges/obstacles for Cathedral both defensively and offensively. Ben Davis has also won the past 14 against Cathedral. The Irish haven't beaten the Giants since 1987, they were close between 2011-2013. They will have to play a terrific game to have a shot.

On 11/4/2023 at 10:31 PM, Footballking16 said:

Why not just kick it out of bounds then? LN started in plus territory 3 different times (on top of a failed fake punt) because of it? Not going to get away with that against Ben Davis.

Honestly they had recovered 5 out of 6 onside kicks prior to that game. One of them against LN should have been Cathedral ball as a LN player touched it and Cathedral recovered but were called for illegal touching. Punting I would have rather seen their QB back their as he sometimes does the quick punt. The execution wasn't there. Against Ben Davis I doubt you would see them onside kick every time their kicker can hit the end zone but has been inconsistent with it. In HS football kicking out of bounds only happens when you don't want to it seems, also the receiving team can elect to have the kicking team re-kick it each time.

12 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Check out HHF Group Discussion Forum there and you'll see who he hangs out with, lol. 

43 minutes ago, Lysander said:

I’d hope so…those folks over there are generally morons.

Explains a lot, now I know why DT hangs out there. Easier to do his grifting.

15 minutes ago, BTF said:

Lol, I mentioned one team in your entire Top 25. I think that's giving your Top 25 quite a bit of respect. Kudos to you for putting it together. With over 300 teams and a nine game schedule, I take the easy road and formulate my Top 25 at the end of the season. 

For the record, I chose Fishers as an upset pick. Had I been betting money, I would have taken HSE. And I like to take chances and be different from the crowd. 

I've got Snider just ahead of Fishers and Crown Point. Not much of a change in your Top 25. Again............kudos. I enjoy seeing it posted at 6am in the morning over a cup of coffee. 

Makes sense

Homestead 23 F.W. Snider 20 in OT

Fishers 42 Homestead 14

6 hours ago, Lysander said:

Churchill had a saying about the “Hun”.  Watching Reitz’ season I am, perhaps unfairly, reminded of it.

1 hour ago, Bobref said:

How many people on here know who you’re talking about? How many people know what he’s referring to when he talks about “the Hun?” 🤣😂😅

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwgUZyfjtSc

6 hours ago, Lysander said:

Yeah….I ran late to that one….had some transportation issues.

 

3 straight Road Games for the Chatard Trojans, being Road Warriors.

That means if they beat Delta and West Lafayette beats Knox a home game for Chatard in Semi-State. Can Coach Doyle and the AD schedule it at Broad Ripple for old times sake just to get the IHSAA to give the stink eye?!

6 hours ago, PHJIrish said:

Well, it wasn't a track meet, but it was a strange game.  Lots of things that coaches love to gripe about happened tonight on both sides.  I didn't understand the Irish kickoffs, which were all basic onside kicks.  LN had the ball deep in Irish territory all night it seemed but they only scored the first 3 points of the game.  Jalen Bonds, Irish Junior RB was the star of the game.  I haven't seen the stats but he rushed for well more than 200 yards, and they were tough yards.  More in the morning.

My guess is it was too windy to try and hit the endzone and the 2 return men for Lawrence North were very fast (I believe one of them Track State champion in the hurdles) likely didn't want to kick to the speed threats. 

5 minutes ago, temptation said:

Seems rumors of Cathedral’s step back may have been exaggerated..

Next Friday should be a classic.

I hadn't felt they stepped back through the season. Offensively they have been very good and got better as the WR's began to gel with QB1 and their RB continued to get better. Defensively they have been very solid against the run, but the secondary has had their struggles. Last night they played terrific defensively all together and the secondary stepped up to play well. 

Ben Davis will be a challenge for their secondary too. There were a few I would say questionable calls last night that kind of stumped me while watching the game. Specifically the targeting call, the onside kick that was touched by a return team player and called illegal touching by the kicking team, I will give the benefit of the doubt on the safety / fumble recovery TD / forward pass (it  definitely was not a Fumble Recovery for TD because the knee went down, was dificult for me to see if he actually tried to throw the ball).

6 hours ago, gonzoron said:

Did Chatard students answer with "you are farmers"? Heard that one before. 

It only counts if afterwards they chanted "bum ba dum bum bum bum bum" 

6 hours ago, Lysander said:

Seems I might have heard about that sometime way back when….

Yeah, we've seen a thing or two. 

6 hours ago, foxbat said:

Thus leaving Elba as their only remaining destination.

18 hours ago, ragdoll said:

Considering his son is the starting tackle for THE Ohio State Buckeyes, I don't think you can get more public than that. He was also a good OL on a pretty good Indiana team back in the day. 

On a change of subject. Am I the only non OSU fan that can't stand putting "the" in front of Ohio State? I always just call them Ohio State Buckeyes. Some (certainly not all) Ohio State fans can be really obnoxious with "the", it is almost like the "small man syndrome". I apologize to the Ohio State fans that aren't obnoxious.

8 hours ago, Grover said:

That was 1972.  😀  Guy Ogden hit the shot. I was there too.  CG was still little in '72.  10 years later it had about 1500 students.  Not sure why you guys are trying to take me to task on this.  I've lived in the CG district since 1970.  Your lack of cartography skills doesn't change that.

Oh, and the high school isn't in Bargersville.

Amen, about the same distance as Brownsburg High School is from the old Avon High School. 😂

1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

thanks for clarifying.  That makes a little more sense.  I still would have tried to eat clock with a Mr. Football candidate, but that sheds much more light.  My bad.

I think I would have too, but I bounce back and forth. Their Mr. Football candidate had 167 yards on 25 carries. 3 of his runs were long ones with a 65 yard TD early in the game and a 45 yarder late in the 3rd. He also had a 18 yard first down run. Aside from that Ben Davis really clamped down on him as he had 22 carries for 32 yards. They did try and run the ball and punt after Ben Davis got the pick 6 two times (even mixing in the QB running) and had to punt both times. with far less time than 9 minutes.

Judging from the big pass plays they hit on Ben Davis I can see why they tried to sneak one in with 9 minutes to go on 2nd down. The problem was the QB tried to throw short to a WR on Zachary's side and he read it all the way. 

On 10/30/2023 at 12:15 PM, Bash Riprock said:

Ben Davis' greatest enemy was the clock down 3 scores.  The pick 6 not only reduced the gap, but reduced the size of the clock enemy.  Just not smart...put the ball in the hands of a Mr. Football candidate....eat clock, punt if needed and flip the field.  Their defense had been solid all game.  The decision to pass almost seems like you don't trust your D.  

You just don't give a team a reason to believe..........

Complete head scratcher......

Just to clarify Ben Davis was not down 3 scores when the pick 6 happened. It was 25-14 with just under 9 minutes to go.

1 hour ago, temptation said:

Good points as those runs definitely embellish the YPC average...but all they had to do was bleed the clock man.

Not a fan of playing "not to lose" but as a stat nerd I like to follow the win probability charts during sporting events and I am willing to bet that with the ball and an 18 point lead with 9:12 to go, Brownsburg's win probability was over 90 percent.

 

I don't disagree at all. It was without a doubt. I personally think the OC was looking that hey we have hit some big passes on them and they probably aren't expecting the pass. The biggest problem is it should have been relayed DO NOT throw to Zachary's side of the field. The best option would have been to run and punt. There was definitely a pucker effect after the pick six.

On 10/27/2023 at 9:49 PM, temptation said:

October Brownsburg strikes again…

Running back has carried the ball 22 times for nearly 170 yards and you have an 18 point lead with 9:12 to go…

So you throw the ball in the direction of Mark Zackery and he walks into the end zone.

Absolute coaching malpractice.

Gotkowski showed balls.

Looking at it Brownsburg RB had 25 carries for 167 yards. He had 1 run that was a 65 yd TD early in the game and another 45 yd TD run. Aside from those 2 runs, he had 23 carries for 57 yards (2.4 ypc). Ben Davis was hemming the run game up pretty well but did let 2 long ones go. The top 2 WR's had 8 catches for 101 yds and 2 catches for 106 yds. I like the thought with Ben Davis gearing to stop the run catch them with a pass, but didn't like the decision to throw to Zachary's side. 

AFter that though Brownsburg was totally rattled and that was a problem. You are correct though if you run the ball 3 times and punt up 18 BD has to mount 3 drives. Looks as though they were going for the jugular and it didn't work.