Championships are they all equal

[temptation]

39 minutes ago, BTF said:

They're enrollment seems to be the same every year I look. 

Simple urban sprawl as you mentioned yesterday with Carroll, just at a slower rate.

What’s happening in the suburbs now is what happened to the county schools in the 80s.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

Simple urban sprawl as you mentioned yesterday with Carroll, just at a slower rate.

What’s happening in the suburbs now is what happened to the county schools in the 80s.

So comparable to Homestead. Growing, but at a slower pace. I see Homestead picking up steam though.

[Robert]

4 hours ago, BTF said:

So comparable to Homestead. Growing, but at a slower pace. I see Homestead picking up steam though.

I think I see more housing going up in Huntertown.  I'm sure someone can look this up.

[BTF]

3 hours ago, Robert said:

I think I see more housing going up in Huntertown.  I'm sure someone can look this up.

No doubt. Carroll is the number one growing area. I've just seen Homestead pick up steam  recently and I see that trend continuing. It's hard to deny how nice Fort Wayne's southwest side is. After all, it's home to Indiana's wealthiest zip code. 

[BDGiant93]

22 hours ago, BTF said:

It's impossible not to be relevant with their enrollment numbers. 

So explain North Central. They've been in the top 5-10 in enrollment in the state for years yet their football relevance, except for a brief time under George Pappas and Al Harants, has largely been not there past a season here or there. Certainly, they have one of the best athletic programs in the state. They've had success in almost every sport. They've had great coaches there like Mark Haste, Rick Streiff, Kevin O'Shea, etc. They've had supportive ADs and admin. I mean, Paul Loggan (RIP), is/was still one of the most respected football people of his time. It's more than enrollment, isn't it?

Edited June 20, 2024 by BDGiant93

[temptation]

24 minutes ago, BDGiant93 said:

So explain North Central. They've been in the top 5-10 in enrollment in the state for years yet their football relevance, except for a brief time under George Pappas and Al Harants, has largely been not there past a season here or there. Certainly, they have one of the best athletic programs in the state. They've had success in almost every sport. They've had great coaches there like Mark Haste, Rick Streiff, Kevin O'Shea, etc. They've had supportive ADs and admin. I mean, Paul Loggan (RIP), is/was still one of the most respected football people of his time. It's more than enrollment, isn't it?

For the last time, yes it’s more than enrollment, no one is claiming otherwise.  Washington Township is still one of the more affluent areas of Marion County and is still a power in many country club sports (tennis, swimming, cross country).

Their affluence lends itself to those sports at an early age.  Their basketball program has been top notch for 2+ decades and it has always seemed to me that their focus and consistency there (Doug Mitchell was a legend) allowed them to thrive on the hardwood.

I do remember speaking to some folks in the know during Mitchell’s tenure that claimed he was not a big multi-sport guy and discouraged his basketball players from playing football so there is also that.

[BTF]

5 hours ago, BDGiant93 said:

So explain North Central. They've been in the top 5-10 in enrollment in the state for years yet their football relevance, except for a brief time under George Pappas and Al Harants, has largely been not there past a season here or there. Certainly, they have one of the best athletic programs in the state. They've had success in almost every sport. They've had great coaches there like Mark Haste, Rick Streiff, Kevin O'Shea, etc. They've had supportive ADs and admin. I mean, Paul Loggan (RIP), is/was still one of the most respected football people of his time. It's more than enrollment, isn't it?

Yes. I think I've stated this 49 times now...................geeesh.

[BTF]

True or False:

An average coach at school with an enrollment of 4000 will beat a great coach at a school of 2000 enrollment 50% of the time. 

[temptation]

40 minutes ago, BTF said:

True or False:

An average coach at school with an enrollment of 4000 will beat a great coach at a school of 2000 enrollment 50% of the time. 

True, maybe higher.

Pretty much everyone wins at Warren, Carmel and BD.

[Robert]

On 6/19/2024 at 9:47 PM, BTF said:

No doubt. Carroll is the number one growing area. I've just seen Homestead pick up steam  recently and I see that trend continuing. It's hard to deny how nice Fort Wayne's southwest side is. After all, it's home to Indiana's wealthiest zip code. 

Zionsville's zip code?

[BTF]

21 minutes ago, Robert said:

Zionsville's zip code?

Zionsville appears to be number on currently. It's been a few years since I've researched this. 

[BDGiant93]

On 6/20/2024 at 2:55 PM, BTF said:

True or False:

An average coach at school with an enrollment of 4000 will beat a great coach at a school of 2000 enrollment 50% of the time. 

False. I don't think you can say that for sure.

[BTF]

On 7/2/2024 at 10:07 PM, BDGiant93 said:

False. I don't think you can say that for sure.

Nothing can be said as absolute fact, I get that. But, by and large, would you lean toward true or false? 

[temptation]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

Nothing can be said as absolute fact, I get that. But, by and large, would you lean toward true or false? 

I think I tend to agree but am too lazy to research examples.  
 

Do you have any examples of coaches that were deemed “average” at a mega school who consistently defeated coaches that were considered “great” at 2000 students off hand?

[BTF]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

I think I tend to agree but am too lazy to research examples.  
 

Do you have any examples of coaches that were deemed “average” at a mega school who consistently defeated coaches that were considered “great” at 2000 students off hand?

I'd have to do some research on that one. But I think looking at who Snider or New Pal have played in past years might be a good place to start. I think Carmel holds roughly a 9-4 advantage (off the top of my head) over Snider. I'd have to dig deeper to make a claim that some of their victories came at the hands of "average" coaches. 

I'm more of a numbers guy than anything else. I like to look at charts and things like that. My comment in my previous post was more common sense based than it was actual fact. But in this case, I would say my comment was 98% fact. Give me 4000 kids and chances are I'm going to come up with a bigger more talented offensive line than you will at a school of 2000. 

[BDGiant93]

5 hours ago, BTF said:

Nothing can be said as absolute fact, I get that. But, by and large, would you lean toward true or false? 

I think a great coach (ala Eric Moore) can make a big difference.

[temptation]

14 minutes ago, BDGiant93 said:

I think a great coach (ala Eric Moore) can make a big difference.

By my calculations, Moore is a combined 34-32 (.515) against BD/Warren in his tenure.

Seems like his numbers make sense…

Now, BD and Warren have had multiple coaches in that time frame so I guess the next thing to do is debate the words “good vs great?”

CG was largely unsuccessful against BD and Warren more often than not in the 2000s but the tide has turned.

Edited July 5, 2024 by temptation

[BDGiant93]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

By my calculations, Moore is a combined 34-32 (.515) against BD/Warren in his tenure.

Seems like his numbers make sense…

Now, BD and Warren have had multiple coaches in that time frame so I guess the next thing to do is debate the words “good vs great?”

Well, he's above .500 🤣

[hhpatriot04]

This is really ironic. 

I am tackling this for some updates for the Predictor Tool, so we can predict/simulate matchups from previous years.

Using Sagarin's ratings (going back to 1999), the first step is to normalize the data. For instance, Chatard may have a rating of 103.52 in 2023, but Chatard in 2003 could be 98.52. How do we compare the numbers.

To normalize the data -- without getting too technical -- we have to compare Chatard 2023 to the other teams in 2023. How much better/worse is Chatard 2023 compared to the other teams in 2023?

Then with that, we do some black magic with longitudinal analysis -- that is how do all teams in 2023 compare to 2003 overall? There are a lot of factors to look at -- for example, if in 2003 the 3A teams had a much better normalized rating than in 2023, we need to give extra weight to Chatard of 2003.

There are many things which can be looked at. Overall, single-elimination tournaments, especially unseeded, are terrible ways to settle things. I'd say most years the champion is only the "best" team around 75% of the time -- maybe less. 6A and 1A really skew things because you don't have as many great teams.

The four-team MLB playoffs were probably the best method to fairly determine a champion. A team had to play well through 162 regular-season games (or however there were previously), then win two series. The NBA is also a pretty good determiner -- all things considered. A team isn't penalized for one bad night, or an injury that crops up at the wrong time.

I look forward to updating the Predictor Tool very soon. I'd like to introduce some upgrades as well like historic helmets for every team.

If anyone has Sagarin ratings prior to 1999, or access to The Star or Bloomington Herald-Times archives, I'd be interested to see older ratings as well (let me know).

[temptation]

6 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

This is really ironic. 

I am tackling this for some updates for the Predictor Tool, so we can predict/simulate matchups from previous years.

Using Sagarin's ratings (going back to 1999), the first step is to normalize the data. For instance, Chatard may have a rating of 103.52 in 2023, but Chatard in 2003 could be 98.52. How do we compare the numbers.

To normalize the data -- without getting too technical -- we have to compare Chatard 2023 to the other teams in 2023. How much better/worse is Chatard 2023 compared to the other teams in 2023?

Then with that, we do some black magic with longitudinal analysis -- that is how do all teams in 2023 compare to 2003 overall? There are a lot of factors to look at -- for example, if in 2003 the 3A teams had a much better normalized rating than in 2023, we need to give extra weight to Chatard of 2003.

There are many things which can be looked at. Overall, single-elimination tournaments, especially unseeded, are terrible ways to settle things. I'd say most years the champion is only the "best" team around 75% of the time -- maybe less. 6A and 1A really skew things because you don't have as many great teams.

The four-team MLB playoffs were probably the best method to fairly determine a champion. A team had to play well through 162 regular-season games (or however there were previously), then win two series. The NBA is also a pretty good determiner -- all things considered. A team isn't penalized for one bad night, or an injury that crops up at the wrong time.

I look forward to updating the Predictor Tool very soon. I'd like to introduce some upgrades as well like historic helmets for every team.

If anyone has Sagarin ratings prior to 1999, or access to The Star or Bloomington Herald-Times archives, I'd be interested to see older ratings as well (let me know).

Is there a place where I can find all-time Sagarin ratings or a listing of the best teams ever?

[hhpatriot04]

Just now, temptation said:

Is there a place where I can find all-time Sagarin ratings or a listing of the best teams ever?

I haven't gotten that far. 

I have archived all the Sagarin ratings though, so feel free to grab them and do your own analysis.

Sagarin's Final Ratings by Season

1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020 2021 2022

[temptation]

1 minute ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I haven't gotten that far. 

I have archived all the Sagarin ratings though, so feel free to grab them and do your own analysis.

Sagarin's Final Ratings by Season

1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020 2021 2022

You just put steak in front of a dog.

Thanks my man!

[hhpatriot04]

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

You just put steak in front of a dog.

Thanks my man!

What are you planning?

[temptation]

Just now, hhpatriot04 said:

What are you planning?

Well, coming up with something on the fly here but 2000-2024 is a solid 25 year period where maybe it’d be cool to run some numbers.

Maybe a top 20-25 by class over that time period?

A top 25 all-time list?

A list of each team’s best team ranked where each school can only appear on the list once?

An average by school of every team they’ve put on the field the last 25 years?

The possibilities are endless.

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

Well, coming up with something on the fly here but 2000-2024 is a solid 25 year period where maybe it’d be cool to run some numbers.

Maybe a top 20-25 by class over that time period?

A top 25 all-time list?

A list of each team’s best team ranked where each school can only appear on the list once?

An average by school of every team they’ve put on the field the last 25 years?

The possibilities are endless.

Let's do it. 

I lean heavily on Chat GPT for programming now. As I'm not a programmer by trade, it has become invaluable in speeding up my processes. 

If I can offer any support or hosting, let me know . I would be interested in seeing your algorithms.

Best

~ Chris

ETA: For example, I have all the Regex needed to extract ratings from Sagarin's HTML. My next step is just to put all the important values from his data into a spreadsheet/database -- year, class, team name, predictor, overall rating, wins, losses, ties (I think there was a forfeit tie a few years back). Long-term I'd like to integrate it with some of Harrell's info like conference, sectional, conference title, sectional title, regional title, semistate title, state title, home, road, neutral, etc...