BTF
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So there you have it people. Carroll isn't even on the same playing field as HSE. Don't even show up Chargers. Hit the weight room and prepare for next year's home opener. Congrats on your 12-1 season seniors.
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Best post so far. Copy and paste it to the other thread.
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Bad examples. Westfield was heavily favored in those games. And Westfield did get off to a slow start against Carroll. Only up 8 midway through the 3rd.
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And yes, thanks for the research on this Temp. Just off the top of my head, I was thinking about some games where the visiting team had to travel 1.5 hours +. This year three games came to mind: Snider at Mishawaka: Snider went down 21-0 then woke up in the second half. Carroll at Jeff: Down 20-7, Carroll woke up in the second half. Cathedral at Penn: Not sure of the exact details, but Penn had Cathedral on the ropes early on before the Irish took over. 2019: Undefeated Homestead at winless Noblesville. Homestead finally woke up in the 4th quarter. The following week, a heavily favored Carmel team traveled to Homestead where the Greyhounds were outplayed for 1.5 quarters before waking up. 2004: Snider travels to Carmel and goes down 14-0 before taking over and winning 42-21 1995: Snider travels to Carmel and goes down 21-0 before forcing overtime. Clearly these examples aren't the end all be all. And no offense to Mishawaka, Jefferson, and Penn for coming out strong in the forementioned games. I'm just making an observation. Really need Jeff Sagarin to chime in here.
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Moved this just now from the other thread: If we can all agree that the home team has a 1.76 point advantage based on Sagarin's research of 1800 football games, then can we agree that driving two hours might bump that advantage up even if minimal? Let's say it moves that advantage to 3 or even 5. In most cases, the better team ends up winning anyway. But it's hard to deny that isn't, at minimum, a SLIGHT advantage to the home team in this case. Common sense tells me there is an advantage. How big the advantage we'll never know since there is no way of calculating this based on data (unless your Sagarin.). I think Bobref and Foxbat touched base on my "there is no way of calculating this" comment. Going off of win/loss alone doesn't tell us the entire story.
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Back to the game, see new thread.
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If we can all agree that the home team has a 1.76 point advantage based on Sagarin's research of 1800 football games, then can we agree that driving two hours might bump that advantage up even if minimal? Let's say it moves that advantage to 3 or even 5. In most cases, the better team ends up winning anyway. But it's hard to deny that isn't, at minimum, a SLIGHT advantage to the home team in this case. Common sense tells me there is an advantage. How big the advantage we'll never know since there is no way of calculating this based on data (unless your Sagarin.).
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Very insightful, thank you.
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2A North SS: FW Luers @ Andrean
BTF replied to 07_statechamp54's topic in The Indiana High School Football Forum
I think he was being sarcastic. -
How is it a moot point? The opinions of the coaches interviewed for that article aren't valid?
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That's awesome. Thanks for sharing Irishman.
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Good to have a Penn presence back on the forum. There were a few of you guys at one time. Mutual respect between Snider fans, players, and coaches. Always a clean game. It's possible they'll meet up again when Snider bumps up to 6A. Does Penn have the large fan support on Friday nights that they had back in the 90's?
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Agree, just skeptical.
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I conceded that the home team does have a slight advantage. As Bobref pointed out, data taken from over 1800 football games shows that the advantage for the home team is 1.76 points. Although my research of three conferences in 2022 doesn't show anything to support the 'home field advantage' claim, 1800 games of data tells a different story (slight). I also researched the performance of Snider when they travel to Mishawaka, The Region, or Indy and found absolutely no data that supports the idea that a long bus ride is a disadvantage to the traveling team. But that's just one team and we can't draw any conclusions whatsoever from that. Now if there was a way to measure a disadvantage when traveling 1.5 hours plus, I think data would show, at the minimum, that the traveling team loses at least 3 points. Personally, I just don't see how sitting on a bus for two hours can do a team any favors. But that's just me. It's probably just best that everyone agrees to disagree and move on. As much as I don't want to make a prediction on this game, I've still got HSE as an 11 point favorite. I'm still haunted by Central Indiana's dominance of 6a football.
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Proposal: Play Semi-State games on FRI & SAT
BTF replied to slice60's topic in The Indiana High School Football Forum
Nah. College plays on Friday night. Tit for tat. -
I can live with that. I'll concede and say that the advantage is slight. Although Rodney made a good point regarding field conditions. A muddy field isn't going to do any favors for a team that is used to playing on turf.
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We're all sitting together at the state finals. Footballking included. Rodney said he'd stop by during the 1A game to fill us in on some of his outtakes. No violence permitted, just some good intense debate. HSE and Carroll should be a good game. Not expecting a blowout here. I think the Chargers are aware that this is the best team they'll face all season. This is a pretty impressive group when they put their best foot forward.
