Footballking16

Well you did say it was unpopular 😂

Strength of conference likely dictates who some of these teams schedule out of conference. I know in the past some of these GCL South and North teams haven't been afraid to schedule anyone out of conference because if you want 3-4 of your conference games you're sitting pretty.

Whoever comes out of 6A South will have definitely earned it. I know you're high on the Irish but their defense has been exposed in the two games they've played against worthy opponents. Beating Center Grove was a nice win and good momentum heading to the tournament, but Center Grove was the better team for all of the last 2-3 minutes of that game. I personally would be worried about a potential rematch. I think it's coin flip whoever comes out of the regional between sectional 3 and 4. I'm going to go with HSE.

The purpose of this post wasn't necessarily to stir discussion for potential bubble teams like Harrison. Any format that cuts the field in half and/or uses a qualifier is going to leave some teams out, that's the nature of the business. That's also why it makes regular season games for meaningful. Teams can play their way in or out the last few weeks of the season. Rather this post was designed to illustrate that the all-in isn't necessary because Cinderella runs in Indiana High School football don't exist. Detractors of a qualifier believe that everyone should be included because the postseason signals a sign of new life and teams that were non-existent in the regular season are somehow going to turn it on come "week 10". It doesn't work that way. There will be a few upsets (5 or less) in the first round where a bottom half Sagarin rated team beats a top half Sagarin rated team and you will see some bottom half teams advance a round, sometimes two, given the nature of the blind draw that allows for bottom half Sagarin rated team to play other each other, but when the dust settles, sectionals are almost exclusively chalk. If the sectionals were seeded all the way through accordingly, the myth that Cinderella exists would instantly die. You'd have running clocks in almost every game that feature the top 2 teams playing the bottom 2 teams.

Computer polls are only imputing and calculating data. There’s no bias in the algorithms like you see with the human element. A computer model is much more likely to spit out an accurate reading for a team like Luers despite being 4-5 than a coach in Southern Indiana who has nothing to go by other than W-L record. You’re taking the bias out of the equation by using computers. Computers aren’t a 100% science but they’re generally better than the human element. I’ve always proposed in my format that a tenth regular season game be added (for those detractors who think that high school athletes are somehow entitled to a tenth game) and the field then be effectively cut in half. That leaves landlocked conferences like the SIAC and SAC one OOC game a year. Sagarin unfortunately does not factor in GS win over the team from Kentucky or any of the data from the teams they played. Hurts GS in this scenario. It significantly helped a team like Chatard in the Massey Poll who played Elder and Christian Brothers, two teams who are both highly rated in national polls. Don’t know the first thing about Norwell. Was shocked West Lafayette wasn’t #1. Can tell that out of state opponents not being factored into Chatard and GS Sagarin equation has helped Norwell.

Using Sagarin, yes Norwell is the #1 rated team in 3A. I use Sagarin because its readily available and it's unique only to Indiana High School football. If a playoff format was ever implemented using a predictive rating measure, I highly doubt Sagarin would be used as it doesn't factor in out of state competition. Massey and Calpreps do however.

I support qualifying formats for all sports. It doesn't get rehashed on here because this is a football forum. Until it does. Never say never. It will never happen if there isn't a continued push year after year. People likely thought the same thing about legalized marijuana or online betting....until it happened. The old cluster and points system didn't include half the field at the conclusion of the regular system. No very good teams are going to be left out in a qualifying format that includes half the field. There will be a handful of bubble teams fighting for the last few spots come the last week of the regular season. With that, it brings a great deal of emphasis and real value meaning to the last few weeks of the regular season. That should be accepted, not scorned.

What percent of coaches have seen half the teams they are seeding/qualifying let alone the entire field? High school football coaches don't have that luxury. Also there's a ton less bias in computer rankings such as Sagarin as compared to the human element.

Not sure if that is a blatant hold but I've seen far less get called. Probably a legitimate argument to be had there if you're Center Grove.

5A and 6A would be cut in half as well under current alignment, although if I were in charge I'd make the 16 largest enrollment schools 6A and they'd all make it seeded 1-16 and the remaining schools divided up between 1A-5A and the top 32 schools would qualify to form 8 four team sectionals, 4 in the northern half and 4 in the southern half.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe in GA all schools that make up their region play in the same classification. In Indiana we have several conferences comprised of teams that represent multiple classifications. It wouldn't make sense to do it that way under the current climate. Now I could get on board with making current sectionals your de facto conference or region or district or whatever verbiage you want to use, but you'd still have a bunch of people butthurt over traditional rivalries getting discontinued.

What a bizarre statement. Are public schools in the 48 other states who have qualifying formats not inclusive enough? If we get to that point, and that's a huge if, the next step would be a qualifying format. If the sectionals were seeded accordingly after the conclusion of the regular season, there would be second half running clocks in 85% of the first round games. The first round would then become unnecessary. This is precisely why the sectionals aren't currently seeded, the IHSAA would have no leg to stand on as to how to justify why 100+ games in their postseason had mercy rules enacted. It'd be a bigger laughing stock than the current all-in.

Oh, this isn’t just limited to football, you should have to qualify for the postseason in every sport. Only harping on the football tournament here as this is a football forum. But make no mistake, same rule should apply to all sports.

Again, I have yet to come across a scenario where an 0-9 team would have qualified for a hypothetical playoff that effectively cuts the field using Sagarin at the conclusion of the regular season. Not saying it hasn't happened once upon a time way back when or couldn't happen in the future, but understanding how Sagarin works, the only way that scenario is plausible would be if a 1A or 2A team played a predominantly 5A and 6A schedule (all quality competition) and kept the score reasonably close. If we know anything, the tougher your schedule is, the more likely you're to be rewarded by Sagarin. If anything, that would be an incentive in trying to qualify for a postseason berth. You would be correct. Rated 8th in 2A by Sagarin.

In theory sure. Have yet to come across a scenario where an 0-9 team has finished in the top half of Sagarin but do appreciate the effort to discredit a a competitive format with non-sequitur.

Define win. Like as in a single game, 2, 3, etc? From where I'm sitting both Luers and Pioneer won games. If you're asking if I believe teams need to win a minimum number of games to qualify I say no because schedules and conferences aren't created equal. What would Luers record look like if they played Indiana Deaf's schedule? What would ID record look like if they played Luers schedule? This is why rating systems like Sagarin exist. Using raw W-L numbers is a terrible way to accurately rank teams given that schedules aren't created equal. And using a rating system that factors in W-L record, opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS is an effective ranking system to use to counter the detractors who simply say teams who start 0-3 and 0-4 will simply quit with no hope of making the postseason.

Adding a tenth regular season game effectively solves this problem as the field is effectively cut in half after week 10 anyway.

Knew you couldn't resist. Welcome back.

Luers plays in a conference with 4A, 5A, and 6A schools. This is exactly what Sagarin does and why you can't treat W-L records as gospel when comparing teams statewide unless each team is playing the same schools week in and week out. Implementing a qualification format may force teams to switch conference alliances for better or worse and in my proposal a tenth regular season would be added to either beef up your schedule or secure an additional win.

1. Eye test. They look like a better, more cohesive unit than last year. 2. You can make that case. But Michigan has struggled to put away teams. Ohio State struggled for 2 quarters in their first game of the year, they've been ho hum ever since. 3. Agree but this game has always been played Thanksgiving weekend and it hasn't stopped OSU in the past from putting a hurt on the Wolverines 4. It's not a quantifiable metric I agree, but there's little doubt in my mind Ohio State won't run it up if given the chance considering how last year played out. 5. Like I said, not looking forward to laying such a big number.

Nationwide there are states with far less schools and smaller populations that have qualifying formats. Wyoming has a qualifying format. As does Alaska. They have a qualifying format because teams that go 0-9 don't deserve to play a postseason game. Cambridge City Lincoln is the lowest rated Sagarin team in the entire state. Not only is CC Lincoln playing in the postseason, they have a first round bye. That's an utter travesty.

I think OSU defense is much improved and with their offensive firepower it takes a ton of pressure off the defense, which isn't the case for a team like Penn State who is hamstrung by pedestrian QB play and lack of playmakers out on the perimeter. I'm not looking forward to laying nearly 3 TDs but I do think this is a game that could potentially get away from Michigan if things go south early. Michigan looked unstoppable Saturday but it still took almost 3 quarters to really run away from Penn State who had no business being in that game yet somehow were. Michigan also didn't look that great against Indiana and Maryland until they pulled away late. I think last years revenge factor will play a bigger role than you want to believe.

Seeding the sectionals 1-4 in 5A-6A and 1-8 in the remaining classes would be the precursor to a qualifying format the cuts the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season after a tenth game is added. A qualifying format that uses a rating system that factors in W-L, opp W-L, SOS, and opp SOS will give weight to smaller schools who play in larger classes. Luers and Mater Dei are prime examples. 4-5 Luers finished 8th in 2A Sagarin despite going 4-5 and in previous tournaments as recently as 2019 and 2020 qualified comfortably despite going 2-7 and 3-6.

End of week 8 up until kickoff of the opening round of sectionals always brings up the qualifier debate, one I'm deeply passionate about. One of the biggest talking points for keeping the all-in is this roundabout myth that bottom half Sagarin teams flourish in the state tournament. Short answer is....they don't. If sectionals were seeded accordingly it would only further my point that a qualifier that cuts the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season is more than an appropriate measure for the IHSAA to put out a more competitive and exciting product come tournament time. I have decided to once again track every postseason outcome (especially games that feature a top half Sagarin rated team vs a bottom half Sagarin rated team), and if history repeats itself, will only further the narrative for a new postseason format. 6A Sectional 1 Crown Point (7) vs Portage (28) Lake Central (23) vs Lafayette Jefferson (16) Sectional 2 FW Carroll (9) vs Penn (14) Elkhart (21) vs Warsaw (17) Sectional 3 Fishers (8) vs FW Northrop (29) Homestead (22) vs HSE (4) Sectional 4 Westfield (10) vs Carmel (5) Zionsville (20) vs Noblesville (18) Sectional 5 Brownsburg (2) vs Ben Davis (6) Avon (19) vs Pike (24) Sectional 6 Lawrence North (13) vs Cathedral (1) North Central (27) vs Lawrence Central (12) Sectional 7 Tech (30) vs Perry Meridian (25) Warren Central (11) vs Southport (31) Sectional 8 Center Grove (3) vs Franklin Central (15) Columbus North (26) vs Jeffersonville (32) 5A SECTIONAL 9 Munster (30) at Merrillville (5) Hammond Central (25) at Hammond Morton (32) SECTIONAL 10 Valparaiso (9) at LaPorte (23) Chesterton (7) at Michigan City (19) SECTIONAL 11 Concord (15) at Goshen (28) South Bend Adams (26) at Mishawaka (8) SECTIONAL 12 Anderson (27) at Fort Wayne North (6) Fort Wayne Snider (1) at Fort Wayne Dwenger (16) SECTIONAL 13 McCutcheon (21) at Decatur Central (11) Plainfield (13) at Harrison (West Lafayette) (10) SECTIONAL 14 [BRACKET] Franklin (4) at Terre Haute South (12) Terre Haute North (24) at Whiteland (2) SECTIONAL 15 [BRACKET] Seymour (22) at Bloomington North (18) Bloomington South (3) at Columbus East (20) SECTIONAL 16 Floyd Central (29) at Evansville North (17) Castle (14) at New Albany (31) 4A SECTIONAL 17 Lowell (26) at Culver Academy (42) Kankakee Valley (43) at New Prairie (10) Gary West (28) at Hobart (16) Highland (45) at East Chicago Central (62) SECTIONAL 18 Wawasee (46) at Logansport (25) Northridge (18) at South Bend Riley (41) NorthWood (5) at South Bend Washington (56) South Bend St. Joseph (38) at Plymouth (53) SECTIONAL 19 East Noble (30) at Angola (23) Fort Wayne South (50) at Leo (17) New Haven (29) at DeKalb (39) Columbia City (6) at Fort Wayne Wayne (32) SECTIONAL 20 Mississinewa (27) at Marion (54) Huntington North (44) at Muncie Central (36) Kokomo (11) at Frankfort (61) Western (24) at Jay County (52) SECTIONAL 21 Brebeuf Jesuit (4) at Northview (21) Lebanon (20) at Mooresville (8) Indianapolis Roncalli (2) at Indianapolis Shortridge (59) Indianapolis Washington (63) at Indianapolis Attucks (58) SECTIONAL 22 Richmond (57) at Connersville (37) Beech Grove (31) at New Castle (40) New Palestine (1) at Mount Vernon (Fortville) (9) Pendleton Heights (19) at Greenfield-Central (12) SECTIONAL 23 Bedford North Lawrence (35) at Shelbyville (49) Martinsville (13) at Greenwood (33) Silver Creek (51) at Jennings County (48) Edgewood (60) at East Central (3) SECTIONAL 24 Evansville Memorial (14) at Evansville Bosse (47) Boonville (22) at Evansville Harrison (34) Evansville Central (55) at Evansville Reitz (7) Jasper (15) at Winner Game 1 3A SECTIONAL 25 Twin Lakes (60) at West Lafayette (2) Boone Grove (50) at Calumet (31) Griffith (46) at River Forest (48) Hanover Central (6) at Rensselaer Central (34) SECTIONAL 26 Mishawaka Marian (42) at West Noble (23) Lakeland (44) at Knox (16) South Bend Clay (64) at Jimtown (24) Fairfield (39) at John Glenn (37) SECTIONAL 27 Norwell (1) at Heritage (27) Fort Wayne Concordia (32) at Woodlan (38) Yorktown (14) at Delta (28) Bellmont (59) at Garrett (36) SECTIONAL 28 Indianapolis Chatard (3) at Northwestern (53) Hamilton Heights (13) at Maconaquah (47) Guerin Catholic (9) at Oak Hill (10) Tippecanoe Valley (18) at Peru (56) SECTIONAL 29 Western Boone (5) at Crawfordsville (54) Tri-West (8) at Danville (25) Monrovia (45) at Purdue Polytechnic (63) Speedway (19) at North Montgomery (21) SECTIONAL 30 Vincennes Lincoln (17) at Gibson Southern (7) Owen Valley (12) at Mount Vernon (Posey) (26) Princeton (62) at West Vigo (57) Washington (61) at Pike Central (58) SECTIONAL 31 Lawrenceburg (4) at South Dearborn (22) Greensburg (43) at Rushville (52) Indian Creek (30) at Franklin County (41) Batesville (40) at Centerville (33) SECTIONAL 32 Scottsburg (49) at Corydon Central (51) North Harrison (29) at Southridge (11) Madison (35) at Heritage Hills (15) Charlestown (19) at Salem (55) 2A SECTIONAL 33 Whiting (41) at LaVille (3) Wheeler (45) at Bremen (30) Hammond Noll (61) at Lake Station (57) Andrean (7) at Winner Game 1 SECTIONAL 34 Winamac (43) at Lafayette Central Catholic (10) Rochester (11) at Seeger (24) Benton Central (48) at Delphi (40) Lewis Cass (13) at Winner Game 1 SECTIONAL 35 Prairie Heights (51) at Fort Wayne Luers (8) Churubusco (9) at Central Noble (39) Eastside (5) at Wabash (47) Manchester (46) at Whitko (60) SECTIONAL 36 Eastbrook (19) at Frankton (33) Elwood (59) at Alexandria (37) Bluffton (23) at Blackford (54) Tipton (27) at Eastern (Greentown) (22) SECTIONAL 37 Linton-Stockton (2) at South Vermillion (25) North Knox (31) at Southmont (16) Sullivan (12) at North Putnam (32) Greencastle (36) at Cascade (15) SECTIONAL 38 Indianapolis Ritter (44) at Shenandoah (21) Heritage Christian (14) at Northeastern (20) Winchester (52) at Lapel (26) Eastern Hancock (35) at Union County (50) SECTIONAL 39 Triton Central (1) at Christel House Manual (56) Brownstown Central (28) at Brown County (58) Switzerland County (55) at Indianapolis Scecina (4) Clarksville (38) at Eastern (Pekin) (49) SECTIONAL 40 Forest Park (42) at North Posey (17) Mitchell (53) at Paoli (29) Tell City (34) at Crawford County (62) Perry Central (18) at Evansville Mater Dei (6) 1A SECTIONAL 41 Bowman Academy (49) at South Central (Union Mills) (55) North Newton (54) at Culver (27) Triton (10) at Pioneer (29) North Judson (3) at South Newton (33) SECTIONAL 42 Clinton Central (56) at Traders Point Christian (24) North Vermillion (23) at Covington (42) Park Tudor (14) at Clinton Prairie (32) Fountain Central (30) at Attica (59) SECTIONAL 43 Frontier (43) at Taylor (51) West Central (21) at Caston (45) Tri-County (53) at Tri-Central (34) Carroll (Flora) (15) at North White (37) SECTIONAL 44 Fremont (39) at South Adams (16) Adams Central (2) at Southwood (12) North Miami (31) at Madison-Grant (13) Northfield (18) at Southern Wells (46) SECTIONAL 45 Union City (57) at Sheridan (8) Indiana Deaf (38) at Indianapolis Tindley (44) Wes-Del (47) at Hagerstown (36) Monroe Central (28) at Winner Game 1 SECTIONAL 46 Knightstown (58) at Edinburgh (40) South Decatur (48) at Milan (26) North Decatur (4) at Tri (11) Cambridge City Lincoln (60) at Winner Game 1 SECTIONAL 47 South Putnam (6) at Indianapolis Lutheran (1) Riverton Parke (19) at North Central (Farmersburg) (41) Covenant Christian (7) at Parke Heritage (50) Cloverdale (52) at Winner Game 1 SECTIONAL 48 South Spencer (20) at Tecumseh (5) Springs Valley (17) at Providence (9) West Washington (25) at Eastern Greene (35) North Daviess (22) at Winner Game 1

It's not a number I look forward to laying but hey I made the bet. Michigan still hasn't (and won't) played a team that has the capability of scoring on every drive and won't until the play Ohio State. Recipe for beating Ohio State was laid out last year, not sure it will be replicated this year. UM will be in trouble if they get down multiple scores early.