MIC -HCC-SAC

[BTF]

This is how the top three conferences stacked up in 2018 according to Sagarin. The gap between the MIC and the HCC is about the same as the gap between  the HCC and the SAC. It doesn't appear that this is going to create much debate.

1.     Warren Central     121

2.     Center Grove     105

3.     North Central     103

4.     Carmel     101

5.     Avon     97

6.     Brownsburg     92

7.     Ben Davis     92

8.     Lawrence North     90 

9.     Lawrence Central     89

10.   Bishop Dwenger     88

11.   Snider     86

12.   Zionsville     86

13.   Westfield     84

14.   Noblesville     81

15.   Hamilton SE     81

16.   Homestead     80

17.   Fishers     80

18.   Wayne     79

19.   Pike     75

20.   Luers     73

21.   Carroll     73

22.   Franklin Central     71

23.   Concordia     69

24.   Northrop     69

 

 

[Guest]

Oh, I'll always find a way to debate...lol.

Obviously the outliers play a major role here, but if you take an average of the above numbers, these are spit out:

MIC - 97.0

HCC - 84.0

SAC - 77.1

You may want to double check my math, but I am fairly certain this is correct.

It's not really close at this point as far as the top is concerned and the SAC is not as far behind the HCC as the HCC is behind the MIC.

It would be interesting to look at past Sagarin ratings and see how these numbers played out in previous seasons to see if there is a trend developing or not.  As predicted, Franklin Central joining the HCC did the conference NO favors other than a fairly easy win for most teams...

[BTF]

In the 80's and 90's I think the SAC was widely considered Top 2. But in the last couple of decades the HCC has come on really strong with the growth of the Indy burbs. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, BTF said:

In the 80's and 90's I think the SAC was widely considered Top 2. But in the last couple of decades the HCC has come on really strong with the growth of the Indy burbs. 

No doubt.  But when will the HCC close the gap/become equal to the MIC?  

How much of a factor does enrollment play?

Socioeconomics?

GREAT coaching is done in all three conferences but the HCC/SAC are not closing the gap and it may be growing even larger, which I never saw coming as I thought the HCC would be the MIC's equal by 2021/2022.

Edited August 15, 2019 by Guest

[BTF]

Great coaching + enrollment = total dominance regardless of Socioeconomic............imo. 

 

[Boilernation]

2 minutes ago, Temptation said:

No doubt.  But when will the HCC close the gap/become equal to the MIC?  

How much of a factor does enrollment play?

Socioeconomics?

GREAT coaching is done in all three conferences but the HCC/SAC are not closing the gap and it may be growing even larger, which I never saw coming as I thought the HCC would be the MIC's equal by 2021/2022.

I don't know if it's possible to close that gap between the MIC and HCC. A few reasons off the top of my head: 

1. Baseball is HUGE in the HCC. A majority of the MIC won't lose talent to baseball. 

2. The Marion County Townships are enormous in population. Washington, Warren, Lawrence, and Wayne are all over 100,000. There are cities in Indiana with over 100,000 in population that don't just have one HS. Granted, Lawrence does have two. 

3. Talent in IPS districts will find their way into MIC schools

4. I think it's safe to say, based on enrollment, that nobody in the HCC will ever be as dominant as Carmel

 

 

[Gipper]

All 3 are great conferences.  I read the Chicago papers on my commute into the Loop on a daily basis and see a portion of their sports section cover the local high schools.   With that, I can't help but wonder how teams such as Carmel, Fishers, or Homestead would fare in Illinois conferences like the ones of Homewood-Flossmoor, Oak Park, and New Trier...

[Boilernation]

14 minutes ago, Gipper said:

All 3 are great conferences.  I read the Chicago papers on my commute into the Loop on a daily basis and see a portion of their sports section cover the local high schools.   With that, I can't help but wonder how teams such as Carmel, Fishers, or Homestead would fare in Illinois conferences like the ones of Homewood-Flossmoor, Oak Park, and New Trier...

Hamilton Southeastern was thoroughly dominated a few years ago by a very average DuPage Valley team (Waubonsie Valley), but I'm guessing that was just an outlier. I used to live in Downers Grove and I'm very familiar with Chicago HS football. At the end of the day the teams in Indy are good for the same reasons the teams in Chicago are: enrollment, coaching, and socioeconomic advantages. Based on a stark difference in population, Chicago just has more of what you can find in the MIC/HCC.

There are definitely some differences between the two areas though. In Indy, Cathedral is really the only Private that can hang with the large 6A schools. In Chicago, Loyola, Naz Academy, Mt. Carmel, St. Rita, sometimes Marist, Brother Rice, Providence Catholic, can hall hang with the 8A schools with Loyola and recently Naz Academy among the best in Illinois. Mt. Carmel has fallen off a little and Joliet Catholic isn't the beast they used to be. I do think you won't find a program similar to Ben Davis or Warren Central in Chicago. City schools like Phillips and Simeon have the raw talent, but they don't have the depth. Suburban schools like Bolingbrook and Homewood-Flossmoor are as close as you can get to Warren/Ben Davis, but I believe the enrollments of Warren/BD are significantly higher. IMO, there are a lot of really good HCC quality Chicago suburban schools that would struggle against the speed of Warren/Ben Davis. Maine South out of Park Ridge is consistently one of the better 8A programs in Illinois and they were embarrassed by Warren a decade or so ago. 

 

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

I don't know if it's possible to close that gap between the MIC and HCC. A few reasons off the top of my head: 

1. Baseball is HUGE in the HCC. A majority of the MIC won't lose talent to baseball. 

2. The Marion County Townships are enormous in population. Washington, Warren, Lawrence, and Wayne are all over 100,000. There are cities in Indiana with over 100,000 in population that don't just have one HS. Granted, Lawrence does have two. 

3. Talent in IPS districts will find their way into MIC schools

4. I think it's safe to say, based on enrollment, that nobody in the HCC will ever be as dominant as Carmel

 

 

Are HCC schools really losing legitimate football talent to baseball?  Not sure I’m buying that.  Not in large quantities at least.  

Your other three points I agree with completely.

59 minutes ago, BTF said:

Great coaching + enrollment = total dominance regardless of Socioeconomic............imo. 

 

So Nick Saban could turn Tech into a powerhouse?

[Boilernation]

7 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Are HCC schools really losing legitimate football talent to baseball?  Not sure I’m buying that.  Not in large quantities at least.  

Yeah, I have zero data to support that claim. I just know baseball in Noblesville, Fishers, Zionsville, Brownsburg, and Avon is a year round affair with youth travel teams utilizing field houses to practice through the fall and winter. My assumption would be these schools have very good athletes playing baseball that don't have time for football. But, the data point could be minuscule and meaningless.

 

[Gipper]

1 hour ago, Boilernation said:

Hamilton Southeastern was thoroughly dominated a few years ago by a very average DuPage Valley team (Waubonsie Valley), but I'm guessing that was just an outlier. I used to live in Downers Grove and I'm very familiar with Chicago HS football. At the end of the day the teams in Indy are good for the same reasons the teams in Chicago are: enrollment, coaching, and socioeconomic advantages. Based on a stark difference in population, Chicago just has more of what you can find in the MIC/HCC.

There are definitely some differences between the two areas though. In Indy, Cathedral is really the only Private that can hang with the large 6A schools. In Chicago, Loyola, Naz Academy, Mt. Carmel, St. Rita, sometimes Marist, Brother Rice, Providence Catholic, can hall hang with the 8A schools with Loyola and recently Naz Academy among the best in Illinois. Mt. Carmel has fallen off a little and Joliet Catholic isn't the beast they used to be. I do think you won't find a program similar to Ben Davis or Warren Central in Chicago. City schools like Phillips and Simeon have the raw talent, but they don't have the depth. Suburban schools like Bolingbrook and Homewood-Flossmoor are as close as you can get to Warren/Ben Davis, but I believe the enrollments of Warren/BD are significantly higher. IMO, there are a lot of really good HCC quality Chicago suburban schools that would struggle against the speed of Warren/Ben Davis. Maine South out of Park Ridge is consistently one of the better 8A programs in Illinois and they were embarrassed by Warren a decade or so ago. 

 

Thanks for sharing, and Boiler up!  I agree, Philips and Simeon do have the talent, but depth and even coaching are lacking.  Crete-Monee and West Lafayette (both a little smaller) hooked up for a home-and-home a few years ago.  How about these potential matchups?

 

Penn-Maine South

Cathedral-Mt. Carmel

Carmel-New Trier

Columbus East-Nazareth Academy

Fishers-Hinsdale South

South Newton-Schurz (sorry, had to get that one in, as an ex-girlfriend of mine went there)

[BTF]

3 hours ago, Temptation said:

So Nick Saban could turn Tech into a powerhouse?

He'd probably still have problems with the mega schools. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

He'd probably still have problems with the mega schools. 

So not quite "total dominance".  Gotcha.

[BTF]

21 minutes ago, Temptation said:

So not quite "total dominance".  Gotcha.

You asked "how much of a factor does enrollment play?" It's not rocket science. Great coaching + MEGA enrollment = Total dominance. I keep forgetting you need everything spelled out for you. Indianapolis Tech has an enrollment of 2100...................ish (added the ish so you don't call me out on that too). Nick Saben could have some pretty good teams with Tech, but not total dominance. Total dominance is reserved for the mega schools with good coaching. My definition of a mega school is 3000+. Interesting how you can find a reason to debate even when someone agrees with you. 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, BTF said:

You asked "how much of a factor does enrollment play?" It's not rocket science. Great coaching + MEGA enrollment = Total dominance. I keep forgetting you need everything spelled out for you. Indianapolis Tech has an enrollment of 2100...................ish (added the ish so you don't call me out on that too). Nick Saben could have some pretty good teams with Tech, but not total dominance. Total dominance is reserved for the mega schools with good coaching. My definition of a mega school is 3000+. Interesting how you can find a reason to debate even when someone agrees with you. 

I just didn't know how you defined "mega school", that's all.  We're clear now.

Thanks for clearing that up.

(And just to be precise, Tech is around 2600.)  🙂

Edited August 15, 2019 by Guest

[psaboy]

22 hours ago, BTF said:

This is how the top three conferences stacked up in 2018 according to Sagarin. The gap between the MIC and the HCC is about the same as the gap between  the HCC and the SAC. It doesn't appear that this is going to create much debate.

1.     Warren Central     121

2.     Center Grove     105

3.     North Central     103

4.     Carmel     101

5.     Avon     97

6.     Brownsburg     92

7.     Ben Davis     92

8.     Lawrence North     90 

9.     Lawrence Central     89

10.   Bishop Dwenger     88

11.   Snider     86

12.   Zionsville     86

13.   Westfield     84

14.   Noblesville     81

15.   Hamilton SE     81

16.   Homestead     80

17.   Fishers     80

18.   Wayne     79

19.   Pike     75

20.   Luers     73

21.   Carroll     73

22.   Franklin Central     71

23.   Concordia     69

24.   Northrop     69

 

 

I would be interested in looking the Sagrain ratings over the past 10 years. I think the Sagrain ratings for the SAC get "skewed" down due to all in conference games the past 4 seasons. 

[QB]

11 hours ago, psaboy said:

I would be interested in looking the Sagrain ratings over the past 10 years. I think the Sagrain ratings for the SAC get "skewed" down due to all in conference games the past 4 seasons. 

10 years is a lot of work, but here is the past 5 with a sparkline showing a trend for each conference. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, QB said:

10 years is a lot of work, but here is the past 5 with a sparkline showing a trend for each conference. 

Wow, this is great.  Nice work!  I'll take a closer look when I have more time to analyze but on the surface look at NORTH CENTRAL...more than doubled their Sagarin rating in 5 years.  

Whoa.

[psaboy]

12 hours ago, QB said:

10 years is a lot of work, but here is the past 5 with a sparkline showing a trend for each conference. 

Cool info, looks like the HCC holds on 10 to 14 point average better than SAC. It currently shows the HCC to be a more balanced conference. You do have two teams missing from SAC, North Side and South Side, they will actually bring that average down further, they are normally in the bottom end of the conference most years. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

Cool info, looks like the HCC holds on 10 to 14 point average better than SAC. It currently shows the HCC to be a more balanced conference. You do have two teams missing from SAC, North Side and South Side, they will actually bring that average down further, they are normally in the bottom end of the conference most years. 

This thread originated with 24 teams. Both the MIC and HCC have 8 teams, so I only included the top 8 teams from the SAC. But you are correct, North Side and South Side will bring those numbers down further.

[psaboy]

17 hours ago, BTF said:

This thread originated with 24 teams. Both the MIC and HCC have 8 teams, so I only included the top 8 teams from the SAC. But you are correct, North Side and South Side will bring those numbers down further.

Got ya. 

[Guest]

On 8/15/2019 at 8:35 AM, Temptation said:

No doubt.  But when will the HCC close the gap/become equal to the MIC?  

How much of a factor does enrollment play?

Socioeconomics?

GREAT coaching is done in all three conferences but the HCC/SAC are not closing the gap and it may be growing even larger, which I never saw coming as I thought the HCC would be the MIC's equal by 2021/2022.

Tonight’s results once again make this a relevant topic.

HSE rolls LC.

Fishers dominates NC.

Brownsburg beats BD.

Carmel gets “rocked” by Trinity.

2-5 for the MIC in week 1.

Yikes...

[Staxawax]

11 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Tonight’s results once again make this a relevant topic.

HSE rolls LC.

Fishers dominates NC.

Brownsburg beats BD.

Carmel gets “rocked” by Trinity.

2-5 for the MIC in week 1.

Yikes...

....and 8-1 for the HCC.

[BTF]

Impressive.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Staxawax said:

....and 8-1 for the HCC.

Yes!