SIAC Week 2

[TigerFan20]

Massey Ratings:

(N) Reitz (+1) vs Tri-West, 52% chance of winning for the Bruins

Castle at Mater Dei (-6), 58% chance of winning for the Wildcats

Central (-14) at Bosse, 72% chance of winning for the Bears

Memorial (-17) at North, 80% chance of winning for the Tigers

Harrison at Jasper (-34), 97% chance of winning for the Wildcats

[hhpatriot04]

Predictor Tool (using Sagarin ratings ... win percentages are proprietary)

Ev. Reitz is a 1.5-point favorite vs. Tri-West (no HFA).
Win probability: Ev. Reitz 52.88%, Tri-West 47.12%.

Ev. Mater Dei is a 4.5-point favorite hosting Castle with a 2.2-point HFA.
Win probability: Ev. Mater Dei 58.55%, Castle 41.45%.

Ev. Central is a 5.5-point favorite at Ev. Bosse with a 2.2-point HFA.
Win probability: Ev. Central 60.4%, Ev. Bosse 39.6%.

Ev. Memorial is a 8.5-point favorite at Ev. North with a 2.2-point HFA.
Win probability: Ev. Memorial 65.76%, Ev. North 34.24%.

Jasper is a 18.5-point favorite hosting Ev. Harrison with a 2.2-point HFA.
Win probability: Jasper 80.53%, Ev. Harrison 19.47%.

I can't believe how similar the win percentages are between the Predictor Tool and Massey for the first two games.

 

 

[tango]

This should be one of the more competitive weeks in the SIAC season across the board. 

[LC_Bears_04]

Tri-West

Castle

Central

Memorial

Jasper

[AW0352]

Really curious to see the result of Castle v MD and Memorial v North.   These two results should tell us a lot about the season. 

[hhpatriot04]

17 minutes ago, AW0352 said:

Really curious to see the result of Castle v MD and Memorial v North.   These two results should tell us a lot about the season. 

Who is the favorite between Castle-Mater Dei?

[tango]

26 minutes ago, AW0352 said:

Really curious to see the result of Castle v MD and Memorial v North.   These two results should tell us a lot about the season. 

I agree. Although much can change as the season plays out with injuries, etc.

9 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Who is the favorite between Castle-Mater Dei?

IMO it has to be Castle just because they played a competitive opponent in Wk. 1. At this point I think its hard to gauge Reitz or Mater Dei, but we should find out a lot more this weekend.  

[AW0352]

Does MD have a better passing or running game?   Defense supposed to be any good?    

[MDAlum82]

3 hours ago, AW0352 said:

Does MD have a better passing or running game?   Defense supposed to be any good?    

 After just one game, that is difficult to determine.   They ran & passed well vs Central but I would expect Castle to present a different challenge on both sides of the ball. Defense was adequate vs Bears but, again, the Knights will present a completely different challenge.

[MDAlum82]

6 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Who is the favorite between Castle-Mater Dei?

 Castle played what many believe to be a higher quality opponent and came away with the W.  MD was not really challenged.  As such, I would say Castle would be seen as the favorite.

[hhpatriot04]

4 minutes ago, MDAlum82 said:

 Castle played what many believe to be a higher quality opponent and came away with the W.  MD was not really challenged.  As such, I would say Castle would be seen as the favorite.

Mater Dei is at home, the newly renovated REITZ BOWL. That's good for 2.2 points per Jeff Sagarin.

[hhpatriot04]

On 8/24/2026 at 8:58 AM, TigerFan20 said:

Massey Ratings:

(N) Reitz (+1) vs Tri-West, 52% chance of winning for the Bruins

Castle at Mater Dei (-6), 58% chance of winning for the Wildcats

Central (-14) at Bosse, 72% chance of winning for the Bears

Memorial (-17) at North, 80% chance of winning for the Tigers

Harrison at Jasper (-34), 97% chance of winning for the Wildcats

 

Castle Newburgh, IN, USA Mater Dei Evansville, IN, USA Actual Score 0 0 Most Likely 27 28 Median 28 28 Mean 29.30 30.01 Win Probability 49% 51%

Fri 08.28

Castle @ Mater Dei

# 75 (1-0) # 105 (1-0)

0 0

28 34

42 % 58 %

-5.5

59.5

 

I don't know why MasseyRatings.com has two different predictions for the same game.

[TigerFan20]

49 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

 

Castle Newburgh, IN, USA Mater Dei Evansville, IN, USA Actual Score 0 0 Most Likely 27 28 Median 28 28 Mean 29.30 30.01 Win Probability 49% 51%

Fri 08.28

Castle @ Mater Dei

# 75 (1-0) # 105 (1-0)

0 0

28 34

42 % 58 %

-5.5

59.5

 

I don't know why MasseyRatings.com has two different predictions for the same game.

 

Sometimes they will randomly get updated, but I just use what is on the Team’s capsule.

[Titan32]

Calpreps: