NLCTigerFan07

Exactly - what will happen instead is Classes 1A-4A will end up less than 64 classes to adjust. Class 6A and 5A have to have a minimum of 32 classes each (outside of last year's COVID debacle)

Yes they are all 3 different school districts. I just think it's more likely they will send Noblesville up to the Fort Wayne schools as that happened previously. One other option I could potentially see would be this: Sectional 1: Crown Point, Lake Central, Lafayette Jeff, Zionsville Sectional 2: Elkhart, Penn, Portage, Warsaw Sectional 3: Carroll, Homestead, Northrop, Noblesville Sectional 4: Carmel, Fishers, HSE, Westfield

I would just be completely shocked if they break up the Fort Wayne schools, but I guess it is entirely possible.

Funny observation after putting this stuff together, if Roncalli and Mt Vernon hadn't split their back to back Regional matchups, one or the other would have ended up in 5A this upcoming cycle.

I don't see why they won't be. The meeting's minute notes clearly stated: "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year (2021-22) will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement." Cathedral won the 5A State Championship both of those seasons, accumulating 8 Tournament Success Factor Points. That meets the 6 point threshold to be moved up a class. The Fighting Irish will 100% be in 6A next year.

With the meeting's minute notes stating "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement." I believe this is what that file would/will look like for at least 5A and 4A: Where it's going to get tricky is for Chatard, Western Boone, and Lafayette Central Catholic. All three of those schools were bumped up THIS season for their Success Factor Points from the 2019-20 and 2020-2021 seasons. But if the IHSAA is going to use 2020-21 and 2021-22 Success Factor Points to determine what schools get bumped up this time... will those 3 schools points be from two different classes? Neither Chatard (4A) or Western Boone (3A) won their sectional this past season, and LCC (2A) won a sectional worth 1 point. I am thinking all three of those teams will get sent down to their previous class, unless they stay due to enrollment (which could be close for Western Boone). Here is what I think the rest of the classes will look like:

With the enrollment numbers posted, and the statement from the meeting notes of "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement." (meaning Cathedral will get bumped up to 6A) - here is my stab at 6A Sectional assignments. The biggest issue? There are 9 schools north of U.S. Route 24, so at least 3 schools will have to be brought "north" to make up at least 3 of the sectional groupings. My guess? Obviously Lafayette Jeff, but also Westfield and Noblesville. Sectional 1: Crown Point, Lafayette Jeff, Lake Central, Portage Sectional 2: Elkhart, Penn, Warsaw, Westfield Sectional 3: Carroll, Homestead, Noblesville, Northrop Sectional 4: Carmel, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Zionsville Sectional 5: Avon, Ben Davis, Brownsburg, Pike Sectional 6: Arsenal Tech, Perry Meridian, Southport, Warren Central Sectional 7: Cathedral, Lawrence Central, Lawrence North, North Central Sectional 8: Center Grove, Columbus North, Franklin Central, Jeffersonville

Honestly I am not surprised it is taking this long. Personally, it is a job I would stay far away from. There's a reason Barron left and quickly moved on to John Glenn.

I mean - I guess you DON'T have to know at the beginning of the season for the fall sports, but I guess I do not think it's a big deal that the IHSAA reclassifies every two years in the late winter/early spring based on that year's enrollments. In the end, it only affects like 20-30 schools at most every year (those schools on each class threshold's).

I do not believe that is accurate unless Warsaw and Chesterton are moving their matchup to Week 1 for the 2023 season. The Tigers and Trojans are slated for a home/home starting this season, and the game this year (2022) is in Week 2. *EDIT - I may have misunderstood the post. I agree this matchup would likely have to wait until 2024 because Warsaw/Chesterton have a home and home starting this season, and I believe for both years it is scheduled for Week 2.

Because you cannot wait to reclassify based on enrollment at the beginning of the school year when fall sports would need to know which class they are competiting in that season. Doing so halfway through the school year allows time for sectional groupings for ALL sports to be created prior to the next school year. It would be too much of a time crunch to figure it all out at the beginning of a school year for all sports.

Follow up to my previous post. Here are the schools that fit the @temptation criteria in 1A, 2A and 3A 3A 161 Calumet 622 65.02% 184 West Vigo 525 53.96% 190 River Forest 511 68.66% 2A 227 Switzerland County 428 50.12% 236 Elwood 410 56.38% 244 Lake Station Edison 388 70.23% 245 LaVille 388 53.28% 246 North Knox 388 54.81% 1A 289 North White 272 73.68% 295 Culver 255 51.02% 298 Union City 246 55.22% Of these schools, the only ones you could even give remote consideration to as being "long-term successful" in the last decade would be: LaVille (2 Sectional Championships since 2017 with 4 other Sectional Championship appeareances and a 70-31 record since Coach Hostrawser took over) Calumet (Sectional title in 2020, winning record last 4 seasons) You'd have STRETCH arguement for North Knox (no postseason championships, but doesn't help being in the sectionals they've been in).

That is not the source I was using nor the metric we were using here. We were using % of Free/Reduced lunch. I provided my source previously. Frankfort High School had a 41.66% mark for Free/Reduced lunch. Besides, doesn't really add the the discussion. They would fit right into @temptation arguement that if a school is in the bottom half of their class by enrollment, and above 50% free/reduced lunch, they likely do not see sustained success.

I echo these posts .... HOW can the elementary enrollements and Jr/Sr high free and reduced lunches have such a discrepancy?!?!?! Can any Pioneer folks explain what is going on?

I have gotten through 4A, 5A and 6A based on the 21-22 DOE Enrollment Data that was posted here on the GID as well as Free/Reduced Lunch % for the high school's based on this website https://www.in.gov/doe/files/2021-school-fr-data.pdf. Here are the schools that fit your criteria of bottom half of their class by enrollment and over 50% free/reduced lunch. Everyone - feel free to debate if any of these schools have had "long-term success". 6A 21 Southport 2379 69.22% 22 Perry Meridian 2373 58.50% 23 Portage 2269 55.92% 24 Lawrence Central 2245 64.11% 27 Lafayette Jefferson 2153 61.71% 28 Indianapolis Arsenal Tech 2111 67.18% 5A 49 Hammond Morton 1729 53.46% 56 Mishawaka 1584 51.21% 61 Michigan City 1526 71.01% 62 Fort Wayne North Side 1513 55.72% 4A 99 Marion 1036 69.33% 105 Connersville 981 50.77% 106 Beech Grove 968 58.01% 112 Indianapolis Washington 906 63.82% 119 Western 838 51.23% 121 Mississinewa 808 53.01% 123 South Bend Washington 801 67.34% 128 South Bend Clay 778 53.60% Just looking at it, Mishawaka (4 sectional titles in 5A since 2015), Mississinewa (3 sectional titles since 2017) and Michigan City (3 sectional titles since 2017) are the only ones who I would classify as successful. Marion had a good run with two Regional Championships in 2018 and 2020. Lafayette Jefferson has struggled in their sectionals with tough matchups usually including either Carmel or Merrillville.

Long-term success as a football program? No I would say Warsaw does not fit that criteria. A handful of conference championships over the last three decades and 1 Sectional championship in program history. Good program? Yes. On the upswing with a lot of potential? Yes. But in the terms that @temptation is talking successful, I would say no. He's going more along the lines of what I would say consistent winning seasons with consistent deep tournament runs. At least multiple sectional titles in their respecitve class.

@temptation - what is your definition of long term success? I am putting together this list of schools now to see who even meets the qualification of lower half of ther class by enrollement and +50% free and reduced lunch? I've got the 6A and 5A schools completed so far... and FYI - there are not many that even meet this criteria, so I am betting the answer to your request of will not be found. I agree this is something that needs to be taken into consideration. I don't know why so many dispute you on this.

Fort Wayne Snider is most definitely in the top half of 5A enrollment, so they do not fit the critera as defined by @temptation

Playing Devil's advocate (my favorite) - do you have any information at all on it? You start your post with "the trip was MOST LIKELY" and include "maybe". So you are guessing just the same as anyone else here.

How cool is that? Best of luck to those three! Such an awesome accomplishment.

I do not necessarily have "first-hand" knowledge, but from my observations, Michael Curtis (Bart's son) is an excellent assistant coach for the Tigers. He has a great relationship with the kids and him being at Warsaw is part of what I believe pulled Bart to apply for the position when it came open. This is truly my own opinion, but it would not surprise me if/when Bart decides to retire, the reigns get moved to Michael if he wants it. Or he could very well get a head coaching position outside of Warsaw if the right opportunity presents itself, but again just from my observations, I would expect Michael to stick around Lake City for awhile.

And unfortunately - I do not engage on Facebook much anymore these days. I'll keep my fingers crossed you continue to show up here! Best of luck on Facebook.

Sure, but I believe if you cannot measure "taller" than your local peers consistently, what is the point of trying to measure against statewide peers? Warsaw is getting there on the NLC front, going 22-6 in conference play during Coach Bart's 4 seasons, as good of a 4 year stretch in conference play outside of '99-'02 when they went 23-3. So after 4 seasons of measuring themselves against local peers, they have also taken the addiitonal step up in non-conference play during Coach Bart's tenure, adding Michigan City 3 years ago, Dublin Coffman last year, and now this upcoming year Chesterton. In future years, the Warren Central Warriors are on the docket, and very likely matchups against other top DAC and SAC teams coming soon. I truly do not believe any of theses additions would have happened in the Pre Bart era. Arguing that the Tigers need to move to the SAC to "measure itself against statewide peers" is a lazy point IMO. What the Tigers are doing in their non-conference schedule, along with facing quality conference opponents in Mishawaka, Concord, Northridge and NorthWood each year. Again, I won't argue that facing Carroll, Homestead, Snider and Dwenger over each of those 4 teams wouldn't be a "step up", but I truly do not believe it is THAT much of a step up. For every downtrodden NLC team there is (Wawasee, Goshen, Plymouth)... the SAC has just as well (South Side, Wayne, Concorida, North Side. Now IF the Tigers somehow start dominating their non-conference and NLC schedule over the next few years AND continue to fail advancing in the post-season tournament... I'll give the idea of a conference shift more merit. But at this time, it is just one of your many rehashed topics. Unlike others though, I have no issue continuing to converse with you over it.

If I am being complete honest and realistic here, your argument would have a stronger hold IF the Tigers were already the "tallest midget" in the NLC, yet consistently falling short in the state tournament. That is not the case. In the last 3 decades, Warsaw has 3 outright NLC football championships ('90, '00, '01) and 3 shared NLC football championships ('92, '99, '20). 6 conference championships over 30 years makes you far from the tallest midget. As well, their postseason history over that 30 year period only includes 9 Sectional Championship appearances (including last year's where they had the "luck" of a double-bye into the game) with only 1 Sectional title ('19). IF Warsaw was dominating the NLC year in and year out and consistently making it to a Regional or Semi-State level in the tournament, only to fall short, I would give your suggestion of the Tigers needing to make a conference change more credence. However, that is not the case currently. Adding regular games against Carroll, Homestead, Snider and Dwenger would be mildly more of an improvement over the current schedule. I do not believe it would truly add that much value. Last year's Sagarin ratings as comparison between those 4 teams and the top 4 NLC teams (excluding Warsaw) 84.43 - Carroll 71.18 - Homestead 69.09 - Snider 67.32 - Dwenger 73.01 - AVERAGE 78.38 - Mishawaka 72.38 - Concord 65.77 - Northridge 59.06 - NorthWood 68.90 - AVERAGE