5A State Championship: #4 Decatur Central (10-2) vs. #10 Warsaw (10-3)

[NLCTigerFan07]

[NLCTigerFan07]

A few quick story lines:

Both teams are looking for their 1st ever State Championship in football. This is Warsaw's first ever appearance in Indianapolis on Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, Decatur Central is playing in Lucas Oil for the second straight year for their second appearance in state championship.

Decatur Central: As previously stated, the Hawks are looking to avenge last season's state championship loss. Is the second time the charm?

Warsaw: The Tigers have defeated undefeated #1 Concord, undefeated #2 Lafayette Jeff, and 1-loss #3 Merrillville in consecutive weeks. Can they complete the superfecta and defeat #4 next Saturday night?

[FastpacedO]

6 minutes ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

A few quick story lines:

Both teams are looking for their 1st ever State Championship in football. This is Warsaw's first ever appearance in Indianapolis on Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, Decatur Central is playing in Lucas Oil for the second straight year for their second appearance in state championship.

Decatur Central: As previously stated, the Hawks are looking to avenge last season's state championship loss. Is the second time the charm?

Warsaw: The Tigers have defeated undefeated #1 Concord, undefeated #2 Lafayette Jeff, and 1-loss #3 Merrillville in consecutive weeks. Can they complete the superfecta and defeat #4 next Saturday night?

I believe this is Decatur Central’s 3rd appearance in the State Finals. They have lost to New Palestine and Fort Wayne Snider in the 5A State Championship 

[NLCTigerFan07]

Correct - my apologies - I did not pay enough attention on John Harrell's site that while the Sectional and Regional Championships had been added, the Semi-State Championships have not been added yet. This will be their 3rd appearance.

[NLCTigerFan07]

Warsaw will be the "home" team and wear their home uniforms (black) while Decatur Central will be the "away" team and wear their away uniforms (white).

[FastpacedO]

1 hour ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

Warsaw will be the "home" team and wear their home uniforms (black) while Decatur Central will be the "away" team and wear their away uniforms (white).

Decatur Central's White uniforms with gold numbers are a nightmare for play by play and color guys in the press box. 😂

[NLCTigerFan07]

I made this comment in the NLC thread, but figured I could throw it in here too. Also, I saw this on social media @WillCarmerShow...

With Warsaw making the state championship game, the Northern Lakes Conference is the only current active conference wherein every current memeber school has played in a state football game.

Concord: 1984, 1998, 2006
Goshen: 1978, 1981, 1988, 1999
Mishawaka: 1974, 2012
Northridge: 2021
NorthWood: 1980, 1986, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2016, 2023
Plymouth: 1977
Warsaw: 2024
Wawasee: 1985, 2004

[Cavemen24]

As a Mishawaka fan/alumni, I'm rooting for Warsaw. I knew they would get revenge over Concord but beating Jeff and Merrillville the way they did really impressed me. This will be a close one but I believe they will have enough to win this game.

[NLCTigerFan07]

I am just hoping the Tigers continue to play as well as they have over the last 3 weeks. They have ran their offense to near perfection with limited turnovers and penalties, and their defense has been opportunistic and made big plays when needed. It would be a shame if the bright lights of Lucas Oil caused Warsaw to play tight and see another repeat of their Week 2 performance at Warren Central pop up. However, I do not see this happening and have the utmost faith in the coaching staff to have this team loose and ready to play the same way they have every game during this postseason run.

[NLCTigerFan07]

To reiterate my post above - the Warsaw defense has given up big play touchdowns throughout the past 3 weeks, however, they have forced 11 turnovers as well.

[BTF]

Unchartered territory for Warsaw. I bet the community is pretty jacked up. 

[FastpacedO]

Ultimately this game will come down to how disciplined Decatur Central plays.

Warsaw is going to do what they do with their flexbone offense, and the question will be can the Hawks defense stay disciplined enough to force the Tigers into 3rd and long passing situations or will they give them their 3 yards every down.

On offense Decatur Central has athletes, but will they be disciplined enough to not turn the ball over. In order for Warsaw to win they will need to continue doing what they do best on offense eat clock and keep the DC offense off the field because the Hawks can score a lot of points. When they are on defense the Tigers need to get some turnovers to get their ball control offense back on the field. 

[Komets2727]

Warsaw is on a roll, I just don’t see Decatur Central stopping them. Warsaw 31 - Decatur Central 21

[FastpacedO]

8 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Warsaw is on a roll, I just don’t see Decatur Central stopping them. Warsaw 31 - Decatur Central 21

I just looked at the Calpreps projection for this game. Boy talk about being a 50/50 game!

They project Decatur Central 28 (53% chance of winning) Warsaw 27 (47% chance of winning). About as close to a coin flip as you can get!

Decatur Central has done really well against teams that run the football well and struggle with passing teams. That being said Decatur Central has not played against a team that runs the Flexbone like Coach Curtis does so they will have to be disciplined. I really really want to pick Warsaw 28-21 or 28-24, but a couple of advantages Decatur Central has a.) experience playing at Lucas Oil Stadium in the State Championship (runner-up last year) b.) a 16 minute drive to Lucas Oil Stadium vs 2 hrs 15 min. I will take Decatur Central 28-24 solely due to experience and basically a home game. I will be ecstatic if Coach Curtis and his Warsaw Tigers win the State Championship though and prove me wrong with my prediction!

[BTF]

2 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

I just looked at the Calpreps projection for this game. Boy talk about being a 50/50 game!

They project Decatur Central 28 (53% chance of winning) Warsaw 27 (47% chance of winning). About as close to a coin flip as you can get!

Decatur Central has done really well against teams that run the football well and struggle with passing teams. That being said Decatur Central has not played against a team that runs the Flexbone like Coach Curtis does so they will have to be disciplined. I really really want to pick Warsaw 28-21 or 28-24, but a couple of advantages Decatur Central has a.) experience playing at Lucas Oil Stadium in the State Championship (runner-up last year) b.) a 16 minute drive to Lucas Oil Stadium vs 2 hrs 15 min. I will take Decatur Central 28-24 solely due to experience and basically a home game. I will be ecstatic if Coach Curtis and his Warsaw Tigers win the State Championship though and prove me wrong with my prediction!

Why do people coninute to reference computer rankings? Honest question. The flaws are massive. What's the difference between Calpreps and Sagarin? 

[FastpacedO]

5 minutes ago, BTF said:

Why do people coninute to reference computer rankings? Honest question. The flaws are massive. What's the difference between Calpreps and Sagarin? 

The biggest difference between Sagarin and Calpreps is Calpreps includes all opponents regardless of what State they are in. Sagarin only includes Indiana opponents. 

I am not sure why you get upset at just mentioning that Calpreps has Warsaw Decatur Central as basically a 50/50 game.  Say what you want about Calpreps but for a computer ranking they sit at 82.8% prediction accuracy for the State of Indiana predicting 1,387 games correctly to 289 incorrectly. They sit at 81.9% for all states, not half bad predictions for the computer making them. Their highest percentage for Indiana was 92.6% and lowest was 70.8%. I don't use it for anything other then ranking accuracy for the State because it takes all games into account. I make my predictions on games based off what I see on the field or on film from teams. Calpreps also provides a very good dynasty ranking. 

The flaws of Calpreps are more accurate than if you just picked the team with the winning record in every game (if records are tied picking home team). There are flaws in every method of game prediction even those who pick a winner without using any computer rankings, so what is the difference?

[NLCTigerFan07]

4 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

but a couple of advantages Decatur Central has a.) experience playing at Lucas Oil Stadium in the State Championship (runner-up last year)

This right here is probably my biggest "concern". The fact that the Hawks have been in a state championship environment means none of this will be "new" to them. That is why I feel like it truly goes 1 of 2 ways for the Tigers. Either they come out tight/nervous and it shows early OR they come out completely loose and playing like they have all postseason. My bet and hope is the latter. While they had the advantage of playing the Regional and Semi-State at home, those were still big environments that they have never been a part of previously. And even when Concord, Lafayette Jeff, and Merrillville all scored on long, big play touchdowns, the Tigers stuck to their guns and converted on offense, seemingly unphased.

I believe this coaching staff for Warsaw will have the Tigers ready for the bright lights of Lucas Oil.

[BTF]

2 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

The biggest difference between Sagarin and Calpreps is Calpreps includes all opponents regardless of what State they are in. Sagarin only includes Indiana opponents. 

I am not sure why you get upset at just mentioning that Calpreps has Warsaw Decatur Central as basically a 50/50 game.  Say what you want about Calpreps but for a computer ranking they sit at 82.8% prediction accuracy for the State of Indiana predicting 1,387 games correctly to 289 incorrectly. They sit at 81.9% for all states, not half bad predictions for the computer making them. Their highest percentage for Indiana was 92.6% and lowest was 70.8%. I don't use it for anything other then ranking accuracy for the State because it takes all games into account. I make my predictions on games based off what I see on the field or on film from teams. Calpreps also provides a very good dynasty ranking. 

The flaws of Calpreps are more accurate than if you just picked the team with the winning record in every game (if records are tied picking home team). There are flaws in every method of game prediction even those who pick a winner without using any computer rankings, so what is the difference?

Computer ratings don't make me upset, just wondering why so much stock is put into them with the amount of flaws that they have. Using the eye test, I'd say this is going to be a really good game. I'll take Warsaw though in a hard fought battle. 

[00NWP]

I have been a fan of this Warsaw team since before the start of the season..even saying they were the team to beat in the NLC.  With that said and having watched them a couple of times this year...I would venture to say their biggest issue will be themselves. I'm sure NLCTigerFan07 would agree...in the games they lost this year...they just shot themselves in the foot over and over again with turnovers. If Warsaw runs their offense as they can...holds on to the ball...and doesn't fall behind early...they are hard to beat.  To be fair...I have not seen any DC games nor am I familiar with how their season went...I'm just saying if I were betting at the track...it would be on Warsaw.

[FastpacedO]

54 minutes ago, BTF said:

Computer ratings don't make me upset, just wondering why so much stock is put into them with the amount of flaws that they have. Using the eye test, I'd say this is going to be a really good game. I'll take Warsaw though in a hard fought battle. 

Perhaps you automatically assume incorrectly that anytime someone mentions calpreps or Sagarin that they put too much stock into them. I have yet to find anything worth putting to much stock as everything (even human instead of computer) predictions are flawed especially when it comes to High School football and teenagers playing that can make mistakes.

The Calpreps computer rankings agree with you that it is going to be a good game though.

I feel it could go a couple of different ways but I am imperfect just like the computer rankings

Edited November 27, 2024 by FastpacedO

[BTF]

23 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Perhaps you automatically assume incorrectly that anytime someone mentions calpreps or Sagarin that they put too much stock into them. I have yet to find anything worth putting to much stock as everything (even human instead of computer) predictions are flawed especially when it comes to High School football and teenagers playing that can make mistakes.

The Calpreps computer rankings agree with you that it is going to be a good game though.

I feel it could go a couple of different ways but I am imperfect just like the computer rankings

Fair enough. 

[MuleDriver]

For what it's worth i know very little of Warsaw. DC had issues with a young bhss team in semistate. With 2 mins left in regulation, it was a 13 all game. DC runs back kickoff then gets a pick 6 of bhss soph qb to make the final 27-13. If I had to pick id prolly go with the team from the North. This year's DC team doesn't look like last year's  machine  which was handled anyways by snider. 

[BendNotBreak]

On 11/23/2024 at 11:11 AM, NLCTigerFan07 said:

 

Warsaw: The Tigers have defeated undefeated #1 Concord, undefeated #2 Lafayette Jeff, and 1-loss #3 Merrillville in consecutive weeks. Can they complete the superfecta and defeat #4 next Saturday night?

That would be an Amazing Feat..... a Record that would likly Never be Broken! .... Rooting for Warsaw

[BTF]

I like how the Warsaw fullback beaks open and protects the football with both arms with no one around him. Nothing flashy, all business. 

[NLCTigerFan07]

Unfortunately the 2 first half fumbles and the fact that the Warsaw defense can’t get a stop… it is an uphill battle for the Tigers.
 

All credit to Decatur Central - they aren’t committing any errors or self-inflicted mistakes. Concord, Lafayette Jeff and Merrillville all were their own worst enemies, which Warsaw took advantage of