GID College Football Playoff Committee

[23andCounting]

I'll start off with a couple of thoughts:

IU: Not sure how they won't be #1 in the first poll. This will piss Ohio State fans off. But how does a committee member look at both team's body of work and put the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers? Ohio State state has a good win over Texas by 7 points at home. IU beats Oregon on the road by 10. Ohio State beats Illinois by 18. IU beats Illinois by 53. IU has two victories over conference opponents by 50+ points. That hasn't been done since Clemson did it in 2018ish. Cut and dry: IU should be #1. 

ND: Lots of whining and crying out of the SEC stating that a two loss ND team shouldn't jump a two loss SEC team. Using transitive property, ND manhandled Arkansas, whereas the Razorback's SEC counterparts are barely beating them in one score games..............including A&M. The Irish are easily one of the top 12 teams in the country. 

[Komets2727]

Based on THIS year so far , Indiana should be #1. Best win of anyone this year so far, at Oregon. Notre Dame should not be in, 2 losses and a poor schedule.

[PDB26]

31 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Based on THIS year so far , Indiana should be #1. Best win of anyone this year so far, at Oregon. Notre Dame should not be in, 2 losses and a poor schedule.

IU could easily be number 1, and they probably have the best win so far. Not sure how often they demote the number one team for winning convincingly if unspectacularly, but there is a strong case for IU at 1.

I think it's too early to rule out a 5-2 ND, and it's certainly too early to rule out a potential 10-2 ND. Losing how they did to Miami and A&M in weeks one and two when most programs were in the middle of a stretch of three or four gimmes probably works in ND's favor so long as Miami and A&M don't crash out and ND looks like the team they were expected to be. ND's margin is slim, but if they win ten in a row I'm not sure it would be inappropriate to have them in as the last at large team. They're on the outside looking in without any control over their destiny, but I don't think they're disqualified by their schedule. 

[23andCounting]

@Komets2727 is alone in his opinion of Notre Dame, not that he's not entitled to it. Most of the media, podcasts, radio, otherwise, seem to be in agreement that they are Top 12. We all know they are, now it's just a matter of getting in. The SEC will whine, kick, stomp, and cry. But at the end of the day, the Irish HAMMERED a team that the rest of the SEC is struggling against. 

[Komets2727]

57 minutes ago, 23andCounting said:

@Komets2727 is alone in his opinion of Notre Dame, not that he's not entitled to it. Most of the media, podcasts, radio, otherwise, seem to be in agreement that they are Top 12. We all know they are, now it's just a matter of getting in. The SEC will whine, kick, stomp, and cry. But at the end of the day, the Irish HAMMERED a team that the rest of the SEC is struggling against. 

What is the best win Notre Dame has? Probably USC, who won’t make the CFP. They will not have beat anyone who makes the CFP. Rest of their schedule is trash. A&M I believe will take at least 2 losses coming up and I think Miami is getting at least 1 more loss so that won’t be helping the Irish either. The Irish only have themselves to blame when they don’t get in

[temptation]

ND is in EASILY.

[PDB26]

8 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

What is the best win Notre Dame has? Probably USC, who won’t make the CFP. They will not have beat anyone who makes the CFP. Rest of their schedule is trash. A&M I believe will take at least 2 losses coming up and I think Miami is getting at least 1 more loss so that won’t be helping the Irish either. The Irish only have themselves to blame when they don’t get in

Now that I think about it, if Miami and A&M take that many losses, they’ll just get dropped in behind ND and then ND will almost surely be in, assuming they win out.

[Irishman]

15 minutes ago, PDB26 said:

Now that I think about it, if Miami and A&M take that many losses, they’ll just get dropped in behind ND and then ND will almost surely be in, assuming they win out.

I posted the same thought in the ND thread last week. They may have maxed out at 12. What could hurt them is a team from the group of 5 as well. I am not sure you will see much more movement out of the top 10. Most likely teams will shifft a bit, but even an IU loss to osu would not drop them out of the top 10, and vice versa. If A&M and Bama play for the conference title, or even if Georgia is one of the finalists, I don't see any of them moving much. 
Notre Dame is in a similar spot that Bama was last year. 

[temptation]

11 minutes ago, Irishman said:

I posted the same thought in the ND thread last week. They may have maxed out at 12. What could hurt them is a team from the group of 5 as well. I am not sure you will see much more movement out of the top 10. Most likely teams will shifft a bit, but even an IU loss to osu would not drop them out of the top 10, and vice versa. If A&M and Bama play for the conference title, or even if Georgia is one of the finalists, I don't see any of them moving much. 
Notre Dame is in a similar spot that Bama was last year. 

Which is a sucky side effect of the 12 team playoff.

Every week used to matter.  Margin for error was razor thin.

[PDB26]

8 minutes ago, Irishman said:

I posted the same thought in the ND thread last week. They may have maxed out at 12. What could hurt them is a team from the group of 5 as well. I am not sure you will see much more movement out of the top 10. Most likely teams will shifft a bit, but even an IU loss to osu would not drop them out of the top 10, and vice versa. If A&M and Bama play for the conference title, or even if Georgia is one of the finalists, I don't see any of them moving much. 
Notre Dame is in a similar spot that Bama was last year. 

Yes, I think ND is either in at 11 or they squeezed out by the G5 team.

[temptation]

Any power 5 team (plus Notre Dame) that wins 10 regular season games is nearly a lock in the current format.

[Irishman]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Any power 5 team (plus Notre Dame) that wins 10 regular season games is nearly a lock in the current format.

Is there a 5th conference? I know there used to be just a couple years ago when the PAC 12 was still a thing, but I keep hearing and seeing Power 4 (B1G, SEC, ACC, and Big XII). I was thinking the Mountain West was part of the group of 5?? 

[temptation]

8 minutes ago, Irishman said:

Is there a 5th conference? I know there used to be just a couple years ago when the PAC 12 was still a thing, but I keep hearing and seeing Power 4 (B1G, SEC, ACC, and Big XII). I was thinking the Mountain West was part of the group of 5?? 

Oops, good call.

Power 4.

[23andCounting]

Notre Dame passes the eye test, which seems to be pretty important to the committee. I don't see them getting left out for losing to Miami and A&M by a total of 4 points. There's not a person who follows college football  who wouldn't want to see a rematch between Notre Dame and the #3 team in the country. That pretty much says it all. I also think one has to look at the Razorback's schedule and look at how they against ND versus their SEC counter parts. It's the eye test, that's it. Notre Dame just looks good. 

[Komets2727]

1 hour ago, PDB26 said:

Now that I think about it, if Miami and A&M take that many losses, they’ll just get dropped in behind ND and then ND will almost surely be in, assuming they win out.

If A&M and Miami both have 2 losses along with Notre Dame, the Irish are out having lost to both teams. No way the Irish get in at that point

[Irishman]

2 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

If A&M and Miami both have 2 losses along with Notre Dame, the Irish are out having lost to both teams. No way the Irish get in at that point

Yep.......A&M might get away with a loss in the SEC title game to not effect Notre Dame, but Miami has to win out. Weird that Notre Dame is having to root for Miami. 

I do agree the Irish pass the eye test. Their run game alone is elite, but the ranking is what hurts them now. 

[temptation]

7 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

If A&M and Miami both have 2 losses along with Notre Dame, the Irish are out having lost to both teams. No way the Irish get in at that point

All three would be in. 

[Komets2727]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

All three would be in. 

Who has the Irish beaten?

[temptation]

50 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Who has the Irish beaten?

Doesn’t matter.  10 wins = in

[Coach Nowlin]

I will wait until the TV Exec make their decisions 

[PDB26]

4 hours ago, Irishman said:

Yep.......A&M might get away with a loss in the SEC title game to not effect Notre Dame, but Miami has to win out. Weird that Notre Dame is having to root for Miami. 

I do agree the Irish pass the eye test. Their run game alone is elite, but the ranking is what hurts them now. 

4 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

If A&M and Miami both have 2 losses along with Notre Dame, the Irish are out having lost to both teams. No way the Irish get in at that point

Again, now that I'm thinking about this more, I'm not so sure another Miami loss would have negative consequences for Notre Dame, and the Irish might even benefit from Miami stumbling. Miami already has a loss as a double-digit favorite. I expect they will be double-digit favorites in their remaining games. If they lose again and Notre Dame wins out impressively, it would not be shocking to see the Irish ahead of the Hurricanes. The committee will say something like ND lost by a total of four points in weeks 1 and 2 to teams that were playing well. They're looking strong on a ten game winning streak, while Miami, even though they looked great early in the season, got ambushed by double-digit dog Louisville at home and lost to another double-digit dog in the last five weeks of the season so they're trending in the wrong direction. This is not difficult to imagine, especially if you already imagine Miami losing another game. 

I think ND is more likely to be sunk by one of Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, or Texas finding a way to climb back into this thing than they are by what happens with Miami. Anyway, lots of ball left to be played and losses late in the season have always been more damaging than losses suffered in the beginning.

[23andCounting]

15 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

If A&M and Miami both have 2 losses along with Notre Dame, the Irish are out having lost to both teams. No way the Irish get in at that point

You also have to look at "what have you done for me lately." Those were the first two games of the season. Everyone knows that ND lost to Miami because the Irish were "slowly" breaking CJ Carr into starting role. They play again, ND wins by 10. A&M came down to a botched extra point. Defense is better now. New defensive coordinator. No matter how you slice it, EVERYONE seems to think Notre Dame looks like a pretty good football team. 

[23andCounting]

Help me out here: 

“When we looked at tape and looked at metrics, we felt like Ohio State was a little bit better up front on the offensive line and we felt like they were a little bit better defensively."

 

Metrics trumps on field performance? I really don't care who's one or two, just trying to make sense of the thinking behind it. IU beat Illinois 63-10, OSU beat them 34-16, "but we think Ohio State is better." Is that how this works?

[Coach Nowlin]

"Metrics".  code word.    TV MONEY 

[PDB26]

4 hours ago, 23andCounting said:

Help me out here: 

“When we looked at tape and looked at metrics, we felt like Ohio State was a little bit better up front on the offensive line and we felt like they were a little bit better defensively."

 

Metrics trumps on field performance? I really don't care who's one or two, just trying to make sense of the thinking behind it. IU beat Illinois 63-10, OSU beat them 34-16, "but we think Ohio State is better." Is that how this works?

The worst application of the transitive game is when A and B both beat C. Good news is A and B will play each other as long as they don’t step on any rakes down the stretch.