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2020 Presidential Election thread


Muda69

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10 hours ago, TheStatGuy said:

My mom got rushed to the hospital tonight. I've been here almost all night, gonna be here for a few days

I'm sure there are those here praying for you and your mother in this trying time.

 

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15 minutes ago, TheStatGuy said:

@swordfish

@DE

 

You both still alive?

Yes.  Why wouldn't I?

10 hours ago, TheStatGuy said:

What do you mean you aren't trying to argue? You are on a message board. 

I'm done debating with you. My mom got rushed to the hospital tonight. I've been here almost all night, gonna be here for a few days

Praying for your mom and her doctors.

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10 hours ago, TheStatGuy said:

Don't pray for me dude. 

I don't like you. I don't believe in god. 

Have a great day KH.  I will never stop praying for you.  

12 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

I'm sure there are those here praying for you and your mother in this trying time.

 

Consistently, with out fail.

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1 hour ago, TheStatGuy said:

@swordfish

@DE

 

You both still alive?

You miss me?  Sorry, I have a job, have a management meeting every Wednesday morning.  Very busy as well - one benefit (if you can call it that) of Covid is nobody is going to fly anywhere and most popular destinations are closed, so RV sales are through the %&#@-ing roof. 

Hoping your mother is doing well.

Noteworthy (perhaps a learning moment for you) - we may have differing opinions on a variety of topics, but I can still hope you and yours stay well and healthy AND without telling you how to live your lives, while ignoring you telling me how to live mine.

Additionally, the election is not over yet, but neither a blue or red wave has swept through the country.

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18 minutes ago, swordfish said:

You miss me?  Sorry, I have a job, have a management meeting every Wednesday morning.  Very busy as well - one benefit (if you can call it that) of Covid is nobody is going to fly anywhere and most popular destinations are closed, so RV sales are through the %&#@-ing roof. 

Spent a long weekend with my spouse in Gatlinburg and the GSMNP.  That area is definitely not closed.  Quite a few RV's down there, along with lots of cars and people.     Had good time though,  the Smokies are beautiful in the fall.

 

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1 minute ago, Muda69 said:

Spent a long weekend with my spouse in Gatlinburg and the GSMNP.  That area is definitely not closed.  Quite a few RV's down there, along with lots of cars and people.     Had good time though,  the Smokies are beautiful in the fall.

 

So jealous of you right now.  The Smokey Mountains is one of my most favorite places in the country.  Making the run from Sevierville through Cherokee over to Maggie Valley is one of my favorite calls no matter the time of year.  I have many great memories with my family and my customers down there.  Missed going there this year.

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Presidency hinges on tight races in battleground states.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-election-day-966a3decc2c3262946c03baf2dd14e8f

Quote

The fate of the United States presidency hung in the balance Wednesday morning, as President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden battled for three familiar battleground states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — that could prove crucial in determining who wins the White House.

A late burst of votes in Wisconsin from Milwaukee gave Biden a small lead, but it was too early to call the race. Hundreds of thousands of votes were also outstanding in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The two candidates, who have proposed dramatically different visions for the nation, split territory across the U.S. after polls closed Tuesday night. With neither candidate securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, Biden urged patience and vowed that every vote would be counted.

But Trump, in an extraordinary move from the White House, called for outstanding ballots not to be counted.

Trump made premature claims of victories in several key states and said he would take the election to the Supreme Court to stop the counting. It was unclear exactly what legal action he might try to pursue.

Vote tabulations routinely continue beyond Election Day, and states largely set the rules for when the count has to end. In presidential elections, a key point is the date in December when presidential electors met. That’s set by federal law.

Several states allow mailed-in votes to be accepted after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Tuesday. That includes Pennsylvania, where ballots postmarked by Nov 3 can be accepted if they arrive up to three days after the election.

Trump suggested those ballots shouldn’t be counted. But Biden, briefly appearing in front of supporters in Delaware, urged patience, saying the election “ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted.”

“It’s not my place or Donald Trump’s place to declare who’s won this election,” Biden said. “That’s the decision of the American people.”

..

Sorry, but Mr. Trump is full of crap on this one.  Sounds like nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction, born of fear,  from the POTUS.

 

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On Election Night, the Real Winner Was Drugs

https://reason.com/2020/11/04/on-election-night-the-real-winner-was-drugs/

Quote

Drugs are winning the war on drugs. It's the morning after the 2020 election, and the result everyone is waiting for—will Donald Trump best Joe Biden, or vice versa?—is still a mystery wrapped in a clusterfuck. But there was one absolutely certain loser last night: the war on drugs. If Americans across the country provided a clear mandate for anything this year, it's ending the hold that drug prohibition has on our country.

Of nine drug decriminalization or legalization measures on state ballots last night—including two addressing hallucinogens and one covering all illegal drugs—not a single one failed. These were decisive victories, too, not close calls. And unlike some previous waves of pro-marijuana votes, which were concentrated in predictable areas, successful anti–drug war measures in 2020 spanned a diverse array of states.

Ballot measures making marijuana legal for recreational purposes passed in three: Arizona, Montana, and New Jersey. South Dakota approved both recreational and medicinal marijuana. In addition, Mississippi voters approved a medical marijuana measure.

Measures to OK consumption of hallucinogenic mushrooms got a green light from voters in the District of Columbia and in Oregon.

And Oregonians also approved Measure 110, partially decriminalizing all illegal drugs.

These drug measures didn't just eke out wins.

In D.C., more than three-quarters of voters approved Initiative 81, declaring "that police shall treat the non-commercial cultivation, distribution, possession, and use of entheogenic plants and fungi"—those that contain ibogaine, dimethyltryptamine, mescaline, or psilocybin—"among the lowest law enforcement priorities."

In Arizona—which rejected recreational cannabis legalization in 2016—voters were 59.85 percent in favor of legalization this year compared to 40.15 percent against.

In New Jersey, the proportion favoring legalization was even higher: 67 percent of votes were in favor, with 33 percent against.

In South Dakota, 69 percent approved the medical marijuana measure. And with 85 percent of precincts reporting, the recreational marijuana measure was up 53.4 percent to 46.5 percent.

Montana saw nearly 57 percent of voters approve recreational marijuana legalization Initiative 190.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, voters said yes to two medical marijuana measures: one allowing it for people with terminal illnesses and one allowing it for people with "debilitating medical conditions." The more-liberal latter option (Initiative 65) saw 74 percent of voters in favor.

Even Oregon's measure to decriminalize non-commercial possession of all drugs saw a sizable margin of victory. Nearly 59 percent of voters approved with 80 percent of precincts reporting. And nearly 56 percent of voters approved of Measure 109, the Psilocybin Services Act, which authorizes the Oregon Health Authority to start "a program to permit licensed service providers to administer psilocybin-producing mushroom and fungi products to individuals 21 years of age or older."

....

This is heartening news for those of use who believe in personal freedom and responsibility;  that government has no business telling an adult what they can or cannot put into their bodies.   

And Indiana is being left in the dust.  

 

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1 hour ago, Muda69 said:

On Election Night, the Real Winner Was Drugs

https://reason.com/2020/11/04/on-election-night-the-real-winner-was-drugs/

This is heartening news for those of use who believe in personal freedom and responsibility;  that government has no business telling an adult what they can or cannot put into their bodies.   

And Indiana is being left in the dust.  

 

... or is it smoke? 😅

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Here we go:

 

Trump campaign says it has filed a lawsuit in Michigan

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/trump-sues-to-stop-michigan-ballot-count-demanding-access-to-tally-sites.html

Quote

President Donald Trump’s campaign said Wednesday that it had filed suit to halt the counting of ballots in Michigan, as the campaign seeks what it called “meaningful access” to observe the tallying process at numerous locations in that battleground state.

 

The Trump campaign also said that its lawsuit demands that the campaign be allowed to “review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access.”

 

The announcement comes as the Republican incumbent faces an ultra-tight race against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Michigan, and in a handful of other battlegrounds, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

A woman who answered the phone at the clerk’s office at the Michigan Court of Claims said she was aware of the Trump campaign statement, but also said the office had not yet received the lawsuit.

At the time the suit was announced, NBC News was reporting that Biden was leading Trump by 49.5% of the votes cast in Michigan, compared to 48.8% percent for Trump, a margin of fewer than 38,000 votes.

A total of 94% of the ballots in the state had been counted so far.

The suit was announced as Trump suggested, without any evidence, that Michigan had “found” ballots to deny a victory to John James, the Republican nominee for the Senate race in Michigan.

 

“As votes in Michigan continue to be counted, the presidential race in the state remains extremely tight as we always knew it would be,” said Bill Stepien, Trump 2020 campaign manager.

“President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law,” Stepien said.

“We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted. We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access,” Stepien said.

“President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson earlier Wednesday said the state will finish counting ballots by Thursday morning.

Benson said Michigan is focused “on counting every single ballot.”

 

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Here we go part 2:

Trump campaign to 'immediately' request recount in Wisconsin, citing 'reports of irregularities'

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/team-trump-immediately-request-recount-wisconsin

Quote

The vote in Wisconsin is super tight: Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Trump by just 20,517 votes out of more than 3.2 million ballots cast. The margin stands at 49.6% to 48.9%.

The Trump campaign said Wednesday that it will seek a recount "immediately."

"Despite ridiculous public polling used as a voter suppression tactic, Wisconsin has been a razor thin race as we always knew that it would be," said Bill Stepien, Trump 2020 campaign manager. "There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results."

"The president is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so," Stepien said.

Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016, holds 10 crucial electoral votes. With half a dozen states still counting, Biden leads Trump 238-213 in the Electoral College vote; the winner must get to 270.

Team Biden said a recount won't matter.

"We are going to win Wisconsin, recount or no recount," said Jen O'Malley Dillon, former vice president Biden's campaign manager.

If the race stays within a 1-point margin, the trailing candidate can request a recount. Before that, however, an official result must be finalized, which could still be days, if not weeks, away.

State law in Wisconsin demands that local election officials complete their vote counts by 4 p.m. on Wednesday. Depending on that outcome, the losing candidate may either demand a full-state recount, or a recount of specific counties. 

The National Guard is assisting in the tallying of thousands of absentee ballots in Wisconsin. 

.....

 

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On 11/2/2020 at 8:53 PM, DanteEstonia said:

What do I find funny about church? All ministers/priests are Pharisees and liars.

If he gives a woman COVID, and the fetus dies, would that be an abortion?

I bet @DEis glad he didn't take my bet... 

 

@DanteEstonia.. I personally think he knew Trump wasn't gonna win. 

 

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9 hours ago, TheStatGuy said:

I bet @DEis glad he didn't take my bet... 

 

@DanteEstonia.. I personally think he knew Trump wasn't gonna win. 

 

Why is betting so important to you, StatGuy?  Sounds like you may have a gambling problem.............

And for the record I voted for the Libertarian Party candidate for POTUS.  Both sides of the uni-party are simply spending the U.S. into oblivion with no end in sight.

 

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49 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Why is betting so important to you, StatGuy?  Sounds like you may have a gambling problem.............

And for the record I voted for the Libertarian Party candidate for POTUS.  Both sides of the uni-party are simply spending the U.S. into oblivion with no end in sight.

 

It's not important. 

 

I made the bet offer cause I knew he truly didn't believe trump was gonna win...cause if he actually did and was as confident as he pretends to be on here... He would have been all over it even if the part of the bet (if Trump lost) was donating to some organization he doesn't have a clue about. 

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1 hour ago, TheStatGuy said:

I made the bet offer cause I knew he truly didn't believe trump was gonna win...cause if he actually did and was as confident as he pretends to be on here... He would have been all over it even if the part of the bet (if Trump lost) was donating to some organization he doesn't have a clue about. 

Nice to have yet another mind reader her on the GID forum.

Hmm, or maybe gambling, regardless of the odds,  is morally repugnant to him.

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The Disinformationists: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/the-disinformationists/

Quote

A republic is not just a nation of laws. It also relies on its good-faith watchdogs, such as honest pollsters, the media and bipartisan institutions.

We still didn’t know the final result of Tuesday’s presidential election as of Wednesday night. But there are lots of reasons to worry that something in America has gone terribly wrong.

Many of the mainstream pre-election polls predicted that Donald Trump would lose in a landslide. He did not — to the shock of a host of propagandists.

A CNN poll had Trump down 12 percentage points nationally entering the final week before the election. An ABC News/Washington Post poll in late October claimed Biden was leading in Wisconsin by 17 points. That state’s voting ended up nearly even. YouGov’s election model showed Biden prevailing with a landslide win in the Electoral College. Progressive statistics guru Nate Silver had for weeks issued pseudo-scientific analyses of a Trump wipeout.

Pollsters were widely wrong in 2016. Yet they learned nothing about their flawed methodologies. So how do they remain credible after 2020, when most were wildly off again?

A cynic might answer that polling no longer aims to offer scientific assessments of voter intentions.

Pollsters, the vast majority of them progressives, have become political operatives. They see their task as ginning up political support for their candidates and demoralizing the opposition. Some are profiteering as internal pollsters for political campaigns and special interests.

Never again will Americans believe these “mainstream” pollsters’ predictions because they have been exposed as rank propagandists.

That bleak assessment won’t make much difference to pollsters. They privately understand what their real mission has become and why they are no longer scientific prognosticators.

Big liberal donors sent cash infusions totaling some $500 million into Senate races across the country to destroy Republican incumbents and take back the Senate. In the end, they may have failed to change many of the outcomes.

But did they really fail?

Democrats dispelled the fossilized notion that “dark money” is dangerous to politics. They are now the party of the ultra-rich, at war with the middle classes, whom they write off as clingers, deplorables, dregs and chumps.

In that context, the staggering amounts of money were a valuable marker. The liberal mega-rich are warning politicians that from now on, they will try to bury populist conservatives with so much oppositional cash that they would be wise to keep a low profile.

Winning is not the only aim of lavish liberal campaign funding. Deterring future opponents by warning them to be moderate or go bankrupt is another motivation.

Twitter co-founder and CEO Jack Dorsey seemed unapologetic that his company was systematically censoring and de-platforming conservative users. In a recent hearing he talked to members of the Senate as if he were a 19th century railroad baron.

Google has been accused of massaging its search results to favor progressive agendas. During the final weeks of the campaign, social media platforms shut down accounts and censored ads and messages, providing an enormously valuable gift to Joe Biden.

Silicon Valley, like the 19th century oil, rail and sugar trusts, sees no reason to hide its partisanship and clout.

The media coverage of the election was unsavory. Journalists confirmed the findings of Harvard University’s Shorenstein Center, which in an assessment of news coverage of Trump’s first 100 days in office found that 80 percent of the coverage was negative.

As in the fashion of the Russian collusion hoax, the media for weeks on end revved up their engines for a seemingly certain Biden landslide victory. They rarely cross-examined Biden on the issues. And they certainly stayed clear of the Biden family influence-peddling scandal.

What do all these power players — big polling, big money, big tech and big media — have in common other than their partisanship and their powerful reach?

One, they stereotypically represent a virtue-signaling coastal elite that feels its own moral superiority allows it to destroy its own professional standards.

Two, they worry little about popular pushback because they assume that their money, loaded surveys and internet and media cartels create, rather than reflect, public opinion.

Three, while these elite cadres have enormous resources, they still are relatively unpopular. Despite being outspent 2-to-1, pronounced doomed by pollsters, often censored on social media, and demonized in print and on television, Trump was neck and neck with Biden — a fact that a few days ago was deemed impossible.

If Biden wins, we should assume that in late January 2021 these same forces will regroup to frame a new post-election narrative.

Expect our Big Brothers to instruct Americans that the COVID-19 pandemic is mutating into little more than a bad flu.

The “Biden vaccine” and miraculous “Biden recovery” will have ended the need for Trump-era lockdowns.

And the rioting, looting and arson?

They will all have miraculously disappeared because the disuniter and inciter Donald Trump is now gone.

 

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39 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

It's the use of likely voters vs registered voters. That might have changed in this last election. 

Here's an accurate poll, that mattered-

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201102_NE_UNLV.pdf

Here's another-

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/super-poll-sunday-biden-with-slight-lead-over-trump-in-pennsylvania-maine-s-second-district-competitive

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2 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Polls were spot on in 2018. 

I think with this being a presidential election year... Added way more voters on both sides and there was a lot of split tickets. (Voting for D prez then R senator)

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The Trump vote is rising among Blacks and Hispanics, despite the conventional wisdom: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-vote-rising-among-blacks-hispanics-despite-conventional-wisdom-ncna124578

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In 2016, Donald Trump got a lower share of the white vote than the previous Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, and white turnout was stagnant as compared to 2012. Trump was able to win nonetheless because he got a higher share of Black and Hispanic voters than his predecessor — up roughly 3 percentage points with African Americans and 2 percentage points with Hispanics — helping tilt pivotal races in states such as Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania toward Trump.

 

That is, it was minorities, not whites, who proved more decisive for Trump’s victory.

Going into Election Day in 2020, Trump seems poised to do even better with minority voters. His gains in the polling have been highly consistent and broad-based among Blacks and Hispanics — with male voters and female voters, the young and the old, educated and uneducated. Overall, Trump is polling about 10 percentage points higher with African Americans than he did in 2016, and 14 percentage points higher with Hispanics.

Perceptions of Trump as racist seem to be a core driving force pushing whites toward the Democrats. Why would the opposite pattern be holding among minority voters — i.e. the very people the president is purportedly being racist against?

It may be that many minority voters simply do not view some of his controversial comments and policies as racist. Too often, scholars try to test whether something is racist by looking exclusively at whether the rhetoric or proposals they disagree with resonate with whites. They frequently don’t even bother to test whether they might appeal to minorities, as well.

Yet when they do, the results tend to be surprising. For instance, one recent study presented white, Black and Hispanic voters with messages the researchers considered to be racial “dog whistles,” or coded language that signals commitment to white supremacy. It turned out that the messages resonated just as strongly with Blacks as they did with whites. Hispanics responded even more warmly to the rhetoric about crime and immigration than other racial groups.

....

 

Ahh, I guess those minority individuals that voted for Mr. Trump just aren't "woke" enough.

 

 

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Trump Says Mail-in Votes Are Suspicious Because They Overwhelmingly Favor Joe Biden. He's Wrong.

https://reason.com/2020/11/05/trump-says-mail-in-votes-are-suspicious-because-they-overwhelmingly-favor-joe-biden-hes-wrong/

Quote

Even as dozens of states were expanding mail-in voting eligibility due to the COVID-19 pandemic, President Donald Trump spent months on the campaign trail telling his supporters not to cast their ballots that way.

"It shouldn't be mail-in voting. It should be you go to a booth and you proudly display yourself," Trump said in April, one of the first times that he spoke publicly on the issue. "You don't send it in the mail where people pick up—all sorts of bad things can happen by the time they sign that, if they sign that, by the time it gets in and is tabulated. No. It shouldn't be mailed in."

He beat that same drum for the next six months. Mail-in voting was risky and dangerous, he said. It would allow postal workers or other nefarious forces to alter or lose ballots. "Mail boxes will be robbed, ballots will be forged & even illegally printed out & fraudulently signed," he tweeted in May.

The result, unsurprisingly, is that Trump's supporters voted mostly in person on Election Day. As a result, the piles of mail-in ballots that are now being counted and that may prove to be decisive in several key states tend to favor former Vice President Joe Biden—in Pennsylvania, for example, Biden is getting 78 percent of the mail-in vote total, The New York Times reported today.

This isn't fraud. This isn't a scheme to steal the election. It is the very predictable outcome of the president's own words and actions.

Of course, Trump doesn't see it that way. Always one to play the victim, Trump used a Thursday evening press conference at the White House to suggest that "overwhelming" support for Biden among mail-in ballots is somehow suspicious.

"We were winning in all the key locations, by a lot, and then our numbers started getting magically whittled away," he said.

There's nothing magical happening here.

Indeed, some Republicans were warning about the potential pitfalls of Trump's anti–mail-in voting messaging months ago. In July, I interviewed former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, a Republican (who later endorsed Biden), about Trump's mail-in voting strategy. Here's what Ridge said:

The idea that Republicans are disadvantaged by higher turnout is "nonsense," says Tom Ridge, the former Republican governor of Pennsylvania and former Secretary of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush. Ridge, who now serves as chairman of the National Organization on Disability, says there is no reason for states to force voters to choose between "your health or your vote" and stresses that political parties should feel an obligation to support policies that make it easier for Americans to participate in the electoral process, regardless of whether there is a pandemic.

When it comes to the gamesmanship of politics, Ridge wonders if Trump's repeated questioning of the legitimacy of mail-in voting could even end up hurting Republicans in the fall. If COVID-19 is raging in November, older voters that haven't requested an absentee ballot (or who weren't allowed to get one) might just stay home.

"Absentee voting gives neither party a political advantage, but the political party or the candidate that has a concerted, focused effort on encouraging absentee voting does have an advantage," he says. "It seems counterintuitive and counterproductive for the president to be opposed to it when, frankly, Republicans are going to have to use it."

In the months since, various experts have warned about the so-called "blue shift" that could occur after the election, as Trump's supporters headed to the polls in force on Election Day and Biden's mail-in vote calvary was counted in the days after.

It's also worth noting that Pennsylvania could have averted some of this mess by changing its law to allow mail-in ballots to be counted prior to the election. Republicans in the state legislature refused to do so. If they had, many of the votes now being tallied for Biden—votes that have nearly erased what was once a 700,000 vote lead for Trump in the state—may have been counted earlier.

Counting those votes earlier wouldn't have changed the outcome, of course, but it would have potentially avoided the appearance of a late comeback from Biden—and it is that appearance to which Trump is now objecting and using as the basis for his unsubstantiated claims of fraud.

In every way, what's happening now is the entirely predictable result of decisions that Trump and his allies made earlier in the year. If he and they do not like what they are seeing, it should be obvious where the blame rests.

Yes it should.

 

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