Muda69 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 https://mises.org/wire/will-trade-war-end-rural-bloodbath Quote By the end of March, Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet at a formal signing ceremony to ratify a historic trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies . It has been one long year since the United States fired the first salvos in the trade war, leading to months of tit-for-tat tariffs, endless deliberations, and investors riding their hopes up and down with every little report, comment, and analysis. Should this prolonged strife receive its final curtain, millions of Americans would have survived the trade war – and all they got for it was a lousy T-shirt. However, for the nation’s farmers, it might be a case of too little too late as they have been the primary casualties in this conflict. It was a bloodbath out there for the farms that feed this country. But just how bad was it? Debt, Delinquency, and Death When China, the European Union, and other important trading partners announced that they would cease or scale back their imports of U.S. agricultural products, prices spiraled down. By September 2018, soybeans had cratered 20%, corn had tumbled 12%, and wheat had fallen 10%. While these commodities have slightly recovered, they are still below their pre-trade-war levels. Farmers had two main issues throughout the summer: They had nowhere to sell their goods. If they did sell their products, they took a steep loss in lower crop prices. Hoping to weather the storm, farmers had no other choice but to store their immense inventories of soybeans and grains. They were optimistic, reading every report that claimed a trade deal was imminent. What they got instead were rotting storages and a $12 billion government handout , an insult to these men, women, and families who prefer to partake in commerce rather than depend on the state. The trade battle began to take its toll on these farms once autumn arrived. In November, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota found that farm belt bankruptcies had surged. It was reported that nearly 100 farm businesses in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy. Overall, according to The Wall Street Journal , the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals processed double the number of insolvency filings from farmers last year; the Tenth Circuit witnessed a 56% jump in 2018. This trend was inevitable after U.S. farm debt topped $400 billion, a figure not seen since the 1980s, when Chapter 12 bankruptcy was established to assist farmers in coming up with ways to pay off their debts within five years. Moreover, the Department of Agriculture estimated that the typical American farmer household lost more than $1,500 last year, and their incomes are 35% lower than in 2013. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue recently told the House Agriculture Committee that firm land values and historically low interest rates have helped “vulnerable” farmers. Although the Federal Reserve has hit the pause button on normalizing monetary policy, it is inevitable that rates will go higher, affecting deeply indebted farmers. Simply put, the domestic agriculture sector may take years to recover fully. Perhaps this alone is contributing to the increasing suicide rates in the profession. It is true that the rate was already high before the trade war – 84.5 per 100,000 people – but experts contend that this bad situation might get worse. Jennifer Fahy, communications director with Farm Aid, said in an interview with CBS News: “The farm crisis was so bad, there was a terrible outbreak of suicide and depression. [Today] I think it’s actually worse. We’re hearing from farmers on our hotline that farmer stress is extremely high. Every time there’s more uncertainty around issues around the farm economy is another day of phones ringing off the hook.” Who Wins? Does anyone ever win a trade war? In April 1975, Col. Harry Summers was part of a post-war delegation in Hanoi, where he met his counterpart, Col. Tu. The two men sat down and discussed the Vietnam War. Summers told Tu that the United States never lost a battle during the conflict, to which Tu responded: that’s irrelevant. When President Donald Trump, also known as the Tariff Man, proclaimed on Twitterverse that the United States would win the trade war, someone should have told him that it’s irrelevant. The agricultural industry has been decimated, farms are witnessing the decay of their inventories, and families are going bust. This isn’t a victory, it’s unnecessary suffering, based on a misunderstanding of basic economic principles; it could have been avoided. The American people are paying a higher price (literally) to the tune of $3 billion a month, but farmers are forking over a bigger cost: professional and personal ruin. Thanks Mr. Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Additional unforeseen consequences ... https://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/news/2019/03/18/tariff-loophole-blamed-in-40-million-olive-lose-in-tulare-county/3194735002/ FTA: Your Lindsay Olives won't come from Lindsay anymore. Tulare County olive growers are reeling after Bell-Carter, a major California table-olive processor, terminated contracts to buy fruit from orchards across the state without notice. Up to 4,500 acres of Tulare County olives will likely go fallow this year after the company canceled all but seven of its contracts with growers in the region. That represents a significant chunk of the total 10,000 acres of olives planted in Tulare County last year, according to an Ag Commissioner's report. "This termination is effective immediately and we will not receive your harvest in 2019," Bell-Carter wrote in a letter to growers. Growers estimate 31,500 tons — 63 million pounds — of Tulare County olives will not be harvested and brought to market this year as a result. That amounts to a $40 million loss in gross revenues in Tulare County alone, and industry leaders say tariffs are to blame. http://fortune.com/2019/03/21/midwest-flooding-farmers-trump-china-corn-soybean-tariffs/ FTA: A week after it began, major flooding continues to impact millions of people in states including Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota. ... The flooding is also particularly devastating to farmers in the region during a time of increased volatility due to President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade dispute with China, which have resulted in agricultural tariffs on corn, soybeans, and wheat. By the end of February, the U.S.-China trade war had already cost more than $40 billion in lost U.S. exports. Reuters reports that many farmers were stockpiling corn in anticipation of prices rising as much as 10 cents a bushel, worth a potential few extra thousand dollars. But now, federal regulations require that some crops tainted by flood waters must be destroyed. That doesn’t even take into account the obvious losses of livestock and other agricultural products many farmers will simply be unable to recover. As of December, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, producers in the flood-impacted states, as well as several other neighboring states, had 38% of the nation’s supply of corn, soybeans, and wheat stored on their farms, about 6.75 billion bushels total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muda69 Posted March 25, 2019 Author Share Posted March 25, 2019 Scarecrow on a wooden cross blackbird in the barn Four hundred empty acres that used to be my farm I grew up like my daddy did my grandpa cleared this land When I was five I walked the fence while grandpa held my hand Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow This land fed a nation this land made me proud And son I'm just sorry theres no legacy for you now Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow The crops we grew last summer weren't enough to pay the loans Couldn't buy the seed to plant this spring and the farmers bank foreclosed Called my old friend schepman up to auction off the land He said john its just my job and I hope you understand Hey calling it your job ol hoss sure dont make it right But if you want me to Ill say a prayer for your soul tonight And grandmas on the front porch swing with a Bible in her hand Sometimes I hear her singing take me to the promised land When you take away a mans dignity he cant work his fields and cows There'll be blood on the scarecrow blood on the plow Blood on the scarecrow blood on the plow Well there's ninety-seven crosses planted in the courthouse yard Ninety-seven families who lost ninety-seven farms I think about my grandpa and my neighbors and my name and some nights I feel like dying like that scarecrow in the rain Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow This land fed a nation this land made me so proud And son I'm just sorry they're just memories for you now Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow Rain on the scarecrow blood on the plow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Will this change in 2020? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjH64Hllp7hAhUEZN8KHWtlDl0QzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fposteverything%2Fwp%2F2017%2F10%2F24%2Ffarmers-voted-heavily-for-trump-but-his-trade-policies-are-terrible-for-them%2F&psig=AOvVaw2G4Kc9aSnO7J7lDizG1ctp&ust=1553633728004829 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Irishman said: Will this change in 2020? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjH64Hllp7hAhUEZN8KHWtlDl0QzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fposteverything%2Fwp%2F2017%2F10%2F24%2Ffarmers-voted-heavily-for-trump-but-his-trade-policies-are-terrible-for-them%2F&psig=AOvVaw2G4Kc9aSnO7J7lDizG1ctp&ust=1553633728004829 Likely not if they are more interested in trying to keep Hillary from being president. I'm sure she'll still be part of the campaign shtick. Seriously, there will be some, but realize that we've seen fiscal hawks vote for a tax cut that added to the deficit and the debt. We've seen defenders of free trade sit idly by and allow these very tariffs to be imposed with no real reasoning and no real research done. We've seen Evangelicals that were fire and brimstone in the past decide that it's all good to give lip service to faith. We've had had folks that are so anti-government who are more than OK with the folks setting themselves and their friends up at the expense of the country and adding to "the swamp." We have fiscal conservatives comfortable with the likes of someone like Moore being nominated for the Fed board ... and worse if he gets confirmed. We have folks who are more that happy to overlook why someone is protesting by kneeling and just make it a narrative of disrespecting the troops, but are pretty quiet watching the Commander and Chief tear apart a deceased POW. We have folks who are dead set against figuring out how to normalize relations with Cuba who just stand by as sanctions are waived off for Russia and North Korea without a single concession on their parts. We have a First Lady whose signature platform is anti-bullying online, yet the most famous of the online bullies is her husband. And these are mainly from the GOP leadership ... many of the folks on the street will just continue to follow that lead. Recall that there were folks who voted for Trump, or more specifically their families voted for Trump, who were then deported. This time around it'll be the folks who lost farms or who are close to losing them that will believe that they aren't "the bad hombres." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impartial_Observer Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 And Governor Holcomb continues to dismiss Hemp based on ignorance and predudice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Impartial_Observer said: And Governor Holcomb continues to dismiss Hemp based on ignorance and predudice. Would be a nice agricultural expansion for farmers interested in doing a bit of diversification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impartial_Observer Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, foxbat said: Would be a nice agricultural expansion for farmers interested in doing a bit of diversification. Somehow a local company is teaming with a local sod farmer in some kind of Hemp test program. I was thrilled to see it, we will see how it works out. http://www.tribtown.com/2019/03/19/cbd_production_to_begin_in_seymour_this_fall/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muda69 Posted March 26, 2019 Author Share Posted March 26, 2019 15 hours ago, foxbat said: Likely not if they are more interested in trying to keep Hillary from being president. I'm sure she'll still be part of the campaign shtick. Seriously, there will be some, but realize that we've seen fiscal hawks vote for a tax cut that added to the deficit and the debt. We've seen defenders of free trade sit idly by and allow these very tariffs to be imposed with no real reasoning and no real research done. We've seen Evangelicals that were fire and brimstone in the past decide that it's all good to give lip service to faith. We've had had folks that are so anti-government who are more than OK with the folks setting themselves and their friends up at the expense of the country and adding to "the swamp." We have fiscal conservatives comfortable with the likes of someone like Moore being nominated for the Fed board ... and worse if he gets confirmed. We have folks who are more that happy to overlook why someone is protesting by kneeling and just make it a narrative of disrespecting the troops, but are pretty quiet watching the Commander and Chief tear apart a deceased POW. We have folks who are dead set against figuring out how to normalize relations with Cuba who just stand by as sanctions are waived off for Russia and North Korea without a single concession on their parts. We have a First Lady whose signature platform is anti-bullying online, yet the most famous of the online bullies is her husband. And these are mainly from the GOP leadership ... many of the folks on the street will just continue to follow that lead. Recall that there were folks who voted for Trump, or more specifically their families voted for Trump, who were then deported. This time around it'll be the folks who lost farms or who are close to losing them that will believe that they aren't "the bad hombres." Sound like more and more this country needs a third-party candidate elected as POTUS, and not a member of the uni-party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteEstonia Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Muda69 said: Sound like more and more this country needs a third-party candidate elected as POTUS, and not a member of the uni-party. Won’t happen while the USA has an Electoral College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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